Saturday, February 04, 2012

Arizona Sweeps Northern California

Arizona 56, Stanford 43
This wasn't a pretty win, to say the least. Arizona scored 0.90 PPP, and it was an offensive explosion compared to what Stanford put up (a 27.8 eFG% and 0.69 PPP). That makes this the worst shooting and the worst scoring performance for Stanford since a 65-42 loss to USC on January 20th, 2011. Arizona's defense has been the strength of this year's team, and it seemed like their athleticism gave Stanford a lot of trouble. Of course, Stanford isn't a great offensive team in general - they're scoring only 0.96 PPP in Pac-12 play.

For a while it was looking like California and Stanford were the clear two best Pac-12 teams, and the two most likely at-large bid earners. But Arizona shook that up by heading to Northern California this week and sweeping both of those teams on the road. California is still the clear best team in the conference, and the only team firmly in the NCAA Tournament, but you can make a good argument that Arizona now has the second strongest resume in the conference. They are now 7-4 in the Pac-12 with these two quality wins, and no truly awful losses (though neither Colorado, Washington or Oregon represent quality losses either). They're only 1-4 against the RPI Top 50, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to move up into the 60-65 range after this win. They'd be NIT-bound if the season ended now, but if they can get to 12-6 (a 5-2 finish) and then win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament then they'll find themselves on the bubble on Selection Sunday. Next week they'll be home to face Colorado and Utah.

Stanford has now lost four of five, which would be a problem in any conference, but is a huge problem in the pitiful Pac-12. They're only 6-5 in Pac-12 play now and only 7-7 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is going to droop to around 80th. If the season ended now they'd be a bubble team for the NIT, and wouldn't even be close to the NCAA Tournament. Even if they can go 5-2 down the stretch to get to 11-7, they'll still need to win at least a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament to have a real chance on Selection Sunday.

Wyoming 68, #13 UNLV 66
I'm not sure if the high altitude was the problem here, but UNLV just couldn't get out on the fast breaks that fuel their offense. By my calculation, Wyoming ground this game down to 64 possessions, the slowest paced game that UNLV has played thus far in conference play. Wyoming only turned the ball over eight times, and they also held UNLV to four offensive rebounds. Limiting possessions and preventing easy baskets are always good strategies against superior foes.

This was an extremely important win for Wyoming for multiple reasons. First of all, it was a bounce-back win after a bad loss to TCU. Second, it was their final chance at home against the Mountain West's Big Three, and they were going to need to beat one of those teams at least once this season to have a chance as a bubble team. This is Wyoming first big win of the season, to go with bad losses to Wisconsin-Green Bay and TCU. They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that should move into the 65-70 range. They wouldn't be an NCAA Tournament team if the season ended now, but they're close. If they can somehow win on the road at either New Mexico, UNLV or San Diego State and then get to 8-6 or better in conference play, they'll be on the bubble heading into the Mountain West tournament. They have a week to get ready for their next game, on the road at New Mexico.

Unless San Diego State gets upset by TCU tonight, this loss will drop UNLV a game back in the Mountain West standings, but they still will get a chance to host the Aztecs, and they are (in my opinion) the best team in the conference. They are still my pick to win the Mountain West, and they are still in contention for a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament (they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50). They have a week now to get ready for that home game against San Diego State. It's a must-win for them to stay the favorite for the Mountain West regular season title.

Denver 75, Middle Tennessee 60
Middle Tennessee might have been another victim of high altitude here, although there were several weird factors in this game. Bad weather threatened to keep these two teams from ending up in Denver on time. And in fact, these two teams shared a flight to Denver from Dallas, with the players, coaches and managers all interspersed. This was, despite all that, a crucial game between the two best teams in the Sun Belt. Either of these teams will be a scary opponent in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64 but, sadly, it's unlikely that both will be able to get there.

That said, Denver had struggled coming into this game, losing two straight and losing their lead in the Sun Belt West (Middle Tennessee State has an iron grip on the Sun Belt East, even after this loss). This win is important for them easing their path through the Sun Belt tournament. A third place finish in the Sun Belt East (where they were sitting heading into today) would have meant facing Florida Atlantic in the Sun Belt quarterfinals, which isn't what they'd like to see. They will play at FAU on Thursday, but their most important game remaining in the regular season will be a home game against Louisiana-Lafayette on February 16th. If they don't take care of business there then they could get stuck in third place in their division.

This is Middle Tennessee's first conference loss, and it drops them to 21-4 overall. They have wins over Belmont and UCLA, along with a bad loss to UAB. They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is 44th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will stay inside the Top 40 even after this loss. If the season ended now, even after this loss, Middle Tennessee would be a bubble team. The problem, of course, is their schedule. Without a Bracketbusters game they have no more chances to earn a big win, and any losses will be bad losses. I don't think Middle Tennessee has a good chance at an at-large bid, but if they went undefeated the rest of the way and lost the Sun Belt tournament title game in a close game to a decent opponent (either Denver or FAU) then they'd at least be seriously considered on Selection Sunday.

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