Friday, February 03, 2012

BYU Bounces Back, Damages Gonzaga's WCC Title Hopes

BYU 83, Gonzaga 73
Despite the high score, neither team played well on offense. The 84 possessions in this game made it the fastest played game in WCC this season (San Francisco and Loyola-Marymount played a game with more possession on New Year's Eve, but that game had an overtime period). Both teams scored less than a point per possession here. Gonzaga, in particular, couldn't hit a jump shot - they finished 3-for-19 on threes. The one guy who could hit jump shots? BYU's Noah Hartsock, who finished with 24 points on 10-for-19 shooting, along with 14 rebounds.

This was a good bounce-back win for BYU after being soundly beaten at home by St. Mary's. But the real winner here? It's arguably St. Mary's, who basically locked up the conference regular season title. They still have to play at Gonzaga, but are now two games clear in the loss column, so they'd have to lose to the Zags, lose to somebody not named BYU or Gonzaga, and then the Zags would have to go undefeated the rest of the way... and even if all that happened, St. Mary's would still have a share of the conference title.

The Zags will play at Pepperdine tomorrow, and then will have that big game against St. Mary's on Thursday. Obviously they will have to win to keep any hopes alive of a share of the conference crown. Meanwhile, this win helps BYU firm up their at-large spot. This is their first RPI Top 50 win of the season, and they're now 6-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that has slid back up into the Top 40 (39th). They'd be right on the bubble if the season ended now, but I think they'd sneak in. They still have to play at Gonzaga on February 23rd. They can afford to lose that game, but then probably need to win every other regular season game to still be in the Field of 68 when the WCC tournament tips off. Their next game will be tomorrow, at Portland.

Arizona 78, California 74
Allen Crabbe toughed this game out and actually played well enough (15 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists). In fact, the whole California team played well enough, but Arizona just shot the lights out. The Wildcats hit 7-for-11 behind the arc and finished with a 61.8 eFG%, their second best shooting performance so far in Pac-12 play (they had a 63.6 eFG% against Wazzu last week). This is a huge win for Arizona,, proving that there's life after the Kevin Parrom injury, and keeping themselves on the Tournament bubble.

Arizona is now 15-8 overall and 6-4 in conference play, though this is their only quality win and they have a bad loss to Oregon. They're 3-7 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS of 70th. I think they need to win six of their final eight games (to get to 12-6) and then need to win a game or two in the Pac-12 tournament to have a shot on Selection Sunday.

California has been the best team in Pac-12 play thus far, and they had built up a little buffer between them and the bubble, so they're still in the Field of 68 even after this loss. They are 7-3 in Pac-12 play with no particularly big wins, but only one bad loss (Wazzu). They are 6-4 against the RPI Top 100, 43rd in RPI and 45th in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS. I think they can basically lock up a Tournament bid if they can get to 13-5. If they finish 12-6 then they'll have work left to do in the Pac-12 tournament.

Cal will play Arizona State tomorrow and then will go on the road to play the two Los Angeles teams next week. Arizona will have a chance to make this a great week if they can win at Stanford tomorrow. Next week they'll be home to play Colorado and Utah.

Duquesne 83, Dayton 73
Dayton looked to be flying high with wins over St. Louis, Temple, Xavier and La Salle. But they haven't handled success well and have now lost three straight, including two straight at home. Particularly after that embarrassing loss at home to Rhode Island, you would have thought they'd have bounced back here. Duquesne did hit 12-for-23 behind the arc, but Dayton's been getting lit up behind the arc all season (they're giving up 41.3% behind the arc in A-10 games). This is the seventh straight game where they've allowed more than 1 PPP, and they're second worst in the conference with 1.12 PPP against in A-10 play (only last-placed Fordham is worse, at 1.15). When your defense is that awful, it's just hard to win consistently.

Dayton has done a ton of damage to their at-large hopes. They are only 14-8 overall and 4-4 in A-10 play, with wins over St. Louis, Temple, Xavier, Minnesota and Alabama, along with bad losses to Rhode Island, Miami (OH), Duquesne and Buffalo. They are 7-6 against the RPI Top 100, but their RPI is 69th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 79th. The Selection Committee will always give the edge to teams with big wins and bad losses over a team with neither, so that will work in Dayton's favor, but those overall computer numbers won't get it done. They can't afford to finish worse than 9-7 to have a shot at an at-large bid, and need to get to 10-6 to be in a good position heading into the A-10 tournament. They have a tough game tomorrow at St. Louis, a team that will be out for revenge.

Duquesne also moves to 4-4 in A-10 play with this win, and they're a respectable 13-9 overall this season, but they're also 4-6 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is only 100th. They're not eliminated from at-large contention yet, but realistically they have no chance. They'll play against Richmond tomorrow.

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