Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Colorado State Closes In On The Bubble

Colorado State 71, #21 New Mexico 63
New Mexico was a little overdue for a letdown game, and Colorado State took full advantage. New Mexico is leading the Mountain West in both 2P% and 3P% against in conference play, but Colorado State seemed to match up with them very well. New Mexico has a lot of size (their best player is 6'9", 245 pounds), but Colorado State is small and quick and they seemed to run New Mexico off the floor. The Rams don't play anybody over 6'6", and for most of the game played Pierce Hornung (6'5", 200 pounds) as their center. Hornung did his job on the boards (15, including 5 on the offensive end), opening everything else up for the Colorado State guards. 10-for-11 free throw shooting down the stretch helped, too.

The bubble is tightening up, and it was crucial that Colorado State get another big win. They also have a win over San Diego State to go with bad losses to TCU and Boise State. They are 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is 25th, though that's a bit ridiculous. Their 60th in the Sagarin ELO_CHESS ratings is a more realistic measurement of where their resume stands. If the season ended now, Colorado State would almost surely be an NIT team, but they'd be a team that the Selection Committee would have to at least consider. Their final three regular season games will be at San Diego State, at home against UNLV, and on the road at Air Force. I think that wins in two of those games and then a win in the Mountain West tournament will give them an excellent chance at an at-large bid. I'll also note that wins in two of their final three games will probably assure that they'll get to avoid playing either UNLV, New Mexico or San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinals. Anyway, anything less than three more wins and they'll end up needing help from other teams to get into the Tournament. The San Diego State game is up next, on Saturday.

New Mexico came into this game having won six straight, including victories over all of their top conference rivals (UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State and Wyoming) during that stretch. They were a bubble team a month ago, but even after this loss they still appear to be safely clear of the bubble. They're 8-4 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is 24th. They should have their at-large bid clinched before the Mountain West tournament tips off. Their next game will be Saturday at TCU.

#13 Michigan 67, Northwestern 55, OT
A heartbreaking loss for Northwestern. Yet again they come up just short in a crucial game. They survived an ice cold 3-for-16 shooting night behind the arc to have a chance in the final minute of regulation, but couldn't come through. One moment that stood out to me was when John Shurna had a wide open look at a three with around 50 seconds to go. Even if he had missed, it would have been a 2-for-1 opportunity, so Northwestern probably would have gotten the ball back. But perhaps spooked by the team's bad shooting, Shurna held the ball, and by the time Northwestern eventually took a shot the clock had run under 35 seconds, allowing Michigan to hold for one. Northwestern played excellent defense, anticipating the Trey Burke isolation and trapping him, but they would have had another chance to win (or would have already been winning) had Shurna shot the ball.

This wasn't a "must-win" game. Northwestern can still earn an at-large bid. But they're going to have to win at least two of their final three regular season games, and unless they sweep those three games they're going to enter the Big Ten tournament needing a win or two. They will play at Penn State on Saturday before coming home to play a huge home game against Ohio State. An upset win there would really turn things around.

Michigan is now 11-4 in Big Ten play, meaning that they've locked up a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They have wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa State, Memphis and Northwestern (twice). Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is all the way up to 10th. With a strong finish they can easily get themselves into the discussion for a 2 seed.

#1 Kentucky 73, Mississippi State 64
A horrible night for Mississippi State. On a night where so many bubble teams got big victories, Mississippi State had a chance for the biggest of the bunch. The Bulldogs jumped out to a quick 12-2 lead, and led by 13 at halftime. Kentucky didn't take their first lead until 4:10 to go, but Mississippi State was already in full collapse mode. They scored four points in the final six minutes.

There's nothing wrong with losing to Kentucky, of course. But it's a huge missed opportunity. Mississippi State is now only 6-7 in SEC play, and I don't think they can afford to fall below 8-8 or they're going to be in big trouble when the SEC tournament tips off. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is now 50th, and their RPI is actually 61st. They have a key game coming up on Saturday at a potentially-still-shorthanded Alabama team. A win there will, at least temporarily, put Mississippi State back into the Field of 68.

Kentucky has just about locked up a 1 seed. They'd need a couple of bad losses to blow it now. They've also clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title, and will have a chance to clinch the outright title against Vanderbilt on Saturday.

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