Kansas Impresses In Blowout Win Over Baylor

#10 Kansas 68, #6 Baylor 54
Baylor was actually in decent shape early in this game, leading by as many as ten points. But fortunes turned late in the first half, and by the middle of the second half the game was basically over: Kansas had gone on a 32-4 run over an 11 minute stretch. Jeff Withey alone had 9 points during that run, and finished with 25 total on 8-for-10 shooting. The underrated Kansas defense shut Baylor down, holding them to 0.83 PPP. Everybody talks about Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, but Kansas has the best team defense in the Big 12. They're holding opponents to 0.91 PPP in conference play (Kansas State is second best at 0.94).

For a few weeks now I've thought that Kansas was the third best team in the nation, behind just Ohio State and Kentucky. But even that said, I'd kept them as a 2 seed in my bracket because of the fact that their competition is much stronger than what Syracuse, North Carolina or Duke face in their conferences. This thumping finally convinced me to finally project Kansas as a 1 seed.

As for Baylor, there's no time to be too disappointed about this loss. If they can bounce back by winning at Missouri on Saturday then this will be a successful week, even with the loss to Kansas. If they lose to Missouri, though, then they'll probably lock themselves into a spot no higher than third in the final Big 12 standings. Their next game after that will be Monday night against Iowa State.

The Big 12 regular season title will likely come down to the Kansas vs Missouri game at Allen Fieldhouse on February 25th. The Jayhawks shouldn't have too much trouble against Oklahoma State on Saturday, but will be tested on Monday night at Kansas State.

Boston College 64, #17 Florida State 60
I'm not sure I've ever seen a team that plays to its competition more than Florida State. They had already lost to Princeton and Clemson, and this loss tops both of those. Boston College isn't just bad this year, they're really bad - they've lost to Holy Cross by 22, Boston University by 14 and Wake Forest by 15. They lost at home to Rhode Island. I think Steve Donahue is a good coach, but he just doesn't have ACC quality talent right now. And then, of course, this is the same Florida State team that has beaten Duke, North Carolina and Virginia this year. They beat North Carolina by 33 points! Nothing makes sense.

Boston College knew that they were never going to hit a shot near the paint against Florida State's massive front line, so they didn't really try. They took almost half of their shots behind the arc, hitting 46% of them. They hit only 35% of their two-pointers. But even with that hot outside shooting, FSU only needed 1 PPP to win this game, and they came into this game averaging 1.02 in ACC play. Their offense just got bogged down into a jump shooting contest. I understand that Bernard James and Xavier Gibson aren't offensive superstars, but against a Boston College front line that was completely physically over-matched? It would have been worth a shot.

With Duke taking out North Carolina, Florida State actually would have been leading the ACC all by themselves if they hadn't lost this game. They are now 7-2 in conference play and 7-4 against the RPI Top 100, along with three losses to RPI 100+ teams. Even though their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 42nd, I don't think there's much risk of Florida State missing the NCAA Tournament. The Selection Committee always prefers teams with big wins and bad losses to teams with neither. They just need to avoid more stumbles down the stretch.

Florida State will try to bounce back on Saturday against Miami. Boston College, now 3-7 in the ACC, will play at Virginia Tech on Sunday.

UAB 71, Southern Miss 61
Cameron Moore has been playing monster basketball the past few weeks, and it paid off the biggest win UAB has had all season. He has scored 20 or more points in six of UAB's ten conference games, putting up 27 points on 12-for-16 shooting here, along with 12 rebounds and 3 blocks. Of course, Southern Miss is allowed an off night once in a while. They are still 20-4 overall, and at 7-2 are tied for the lead in Conference USA. Even after this loss, their RPI is 11th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 25th. So why am I projecting Memphis to win the league instead of them, and why do I have them all the way back at a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament? Because here are the point-per-possession differentials in conference play:
+0.16 Memphis
+0.10 Tulsa
+0.06 Southern Miss
+0.06 Tulsa
+0.01 UTEP

Meanwhile, Southern Miss is 53rd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings and 56th in Pomeroy. Why? Because they're 7-1 in games decided by four points or less or in overtime. They've been lucky. So while their resume is excellent and they're very likely to be in the NCAA Tournament, they're not as good as their resume, and probably shouldn't be considered a dark horse team to make a run in March. Their next game will be on Saturday, against UCF.

UAB played very poorly in November and December, losing games to the likes of Tennessee-Martin, South Alabama and Kent State. They long ago played themselves out of contention for an at-large bid. But they've suddenly won four of five, with wins over both Southern Miss and Marshall over that stretch. It looks like they've be a pest down the stretch. Their next game will be tomorrow, at Memphis.