Sunday, February 19, 2012

Kansas State Pulls Themselves Off The Bubble

Kansas State 57, #10 Baylor 56
There were two trends that were broken here. First, Kansas State ended their road woes. They had come into this game only 2-4 in conference road games, with both wins coming against non-Tournament teams. Second, Baylor had taken care of business against all but the top of the conference. They came into this game 0-4 against Missouri and Kansas, and 9-0 against everybody else in the Big 12. But this win came at a crucial time for Kansas State. They needed to find a win among their brutal four game stretch: at Texas, vs Kansas, at Baylor, at Missouri. They had already lost the first two.

The big story in this game was the performance of Perry Jones, or the lack thereof. He fouled out with four points and four rebounds. His absence from the paint opened things up for Kansas State's Angel Rodriguez, who scored 15 points and had 6 assists. Last season, I felt that Perry Jones was being grossly underused by Baylor. LaceDarius Dunn was a ball hog, and I assumed that Jones would take off as a sophomore. But he's been inconsistent at best. He's scored five points or fewer in three of his last four games. Jones is a spectacular athlete, but he's going to need a consistent offensive game to be deserving of a top NBA Draft pick.

Kansas State has pulled themselves off the bubble for now. They're 7-7 in Big 12 play and 4-5 against the RPI Top 50. They will have to play at Missouri on Tuesday, but then will have a very manageable final three games. A 9-9 finish and a win in the Big 12 tournament will lock up an at-large bid for the Wildcats.

Baylor's not in any risk of falling near the bubble, of course, but their NCAA Tournament seed is fading. They have lost three of four and now head into a difficult road game at Texas on Monday night. They also will play at Iowa State on Senior Night, March 3rd.

#13 Marquette 79, Connecticut 64
As much as UConn has struggled lately, they actually played well here. Shabazz Napier had possibly his best game of the season (11 points, 8 assists, 4 steals) while Jeremy Lamb and Ryan Boatright got hot from deep (a combined 4-for-7 from behind the arc). But Jae Crowder was a monster, scoring 29 points against the UConn front line, opening things up behind the arc for Darius Johnson-Odom (4-for-8 on threes).

This loss drops UConn to 6-8 in Big East play, and puts them at serious risk of falling to the NIT. They're 8-8 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that has fallen into the 45-50 range. A 9-9 Big East finish and a win in the Big East tournament should earn them an at-large bid, but that's an uphill battle at this point. They still have to play Syracuse, for example. And Monday night they'll play at Villanova. If they the Huskies fall to 8-10 in conference play then they can still earn an at-large bid, but they'll need to do a lot of work in the Big East tournament.

Marquette moves to 11-3 in Big East play and 9-5 against the RPI Top 100, with victories over Wisconsin, Louisville, Cincinnati and Seton Hall, with zero really bad losses. Their RPI is up to 9th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be very close to 10th when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. If the season ended now they'd be a 3 seed, but a 2 seed is looking very realistic if they can keep winning. They'll play Rutgers on Wednesday, and then on the road at West Virginia on Friday.

#21 Florida State 76, NC State 62
The story of this game came off the floor. Karl Hess is rapidly becoming one of the least popular refs in the nation. He was the ref that blew the goaltending call at the end of the Syracuse/West Virginia game a few weeks ago, and he over-reacted here after blowing a few minor calls. Tom Gugliotta and Chris Corchiani, both of whom have their numbers hanging in the rafters, heckled Hess, and he threw them out of the arena. Everybody that saw the Syracuse/West Virginia call agreed that it was wrong, but it was objectively wrong. It's rare that you see a subjective decision by a ref where there is universal agreement that the ref screwed up, but that's what you had here. There's nothing that bothers me more than refs that make a bad call, realize that they screwed it up, but respond by doubling down and taking retribution against anybody that complains. Just admit you screwed it up and move on.

While I sympathize with NC State fans on Karl Hess, I don't think it cost them the game. They just struggled to deal with the Florida State length and athleticism, committing 17 turnovers and getting 9 shots blocked. Florida State's offense continued to struggle, but it didn't matter here. Ian Miller did play nicely off the bench, though, with 17 points on 6-for-9 shooting. He's scored in double-digits off the bench in the last four FSU games.

There aren't many casual college basketball fans that realize that Florida State actually leads the ACC right now. They're tied in the loss column with North Carolina and Duke, and have head-to-head wins over both. They're not as good as either Duke or UNC, and their overall resume isn't nearly as strong, but the longer they hang in at the top the higher their Tournament seed will rise. With a 4-4 record against the RPI Top 50 and a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is up to around 30th, and with those two big wins, Florida State would likely be a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended now. But their key stretch is ahead. They will play Duke on Thursday, and a week later will play at Virginia.

NC State just went through a brutal 48 hour stretch. They looked to be closing in on the Field of 68 with a 61-44 lead over Duke on Thursday night. A win would have pushed them to 8-3 in ACC play and given them a huge scalp. But a 34-12 finish by Duke blew that game, and then they fell here to find themselves 7-5. They have wins over Texas and Miami (Fl), along with a bad loss to Georgia Tech. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slid into the 55-60 range. They will play North Carolina at home on Tuesday. Without a win there they'll need to win their final three regular season games or else they'll enter the ACC tournament with a bunch of work left to do.

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