Tuesday, February 28, 2012

South Florida Nears An At-Large Bid... Really.

South Florida 46, Cincinnati 45
This was an ugly, sloppy game where neither team impressed much. South Florida made two field goals in the final 9:50 of the game, and somehow held onto the win. Cincinnati was a mess offensively, finishing with only a 36.8 eFG%, their worst shooting performance since January 7th. I know that both of these teams have looked better on other days, but neither of them looked like a Tournament team here. The thing is: both of them might be Tournament teams. The scariest thing about this game is that it somehow made USF 11-5 in Big East play, which by itself makes them a bubble team.

What is holding USF back, besides the fact that their Big East strength of schedule has been particularly soft this year (they got lucky in scheduling), is that their non-conference performance was horrid. They went 7-6 in non-conference play, with a win over Cleveland State their only decent win to go with iffy losses to Auburn, Penn State and Old Dominion. Even after this win, USF is 1-7 against the RPI Top 60 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 55th. So we have two stats that are seemingly contradictory staring at us. For just about any team in any year, a 1-7 Top 50 record and a 55th Sagarin ELO_CHESS would mean NIT for sure. But in any other situation, an 11-5 Big East team is a lock for the Tournament. So where does USF fall? Somewhere in the middle.

USF's final two games will be fairly difficult. They will play at Louisville tomorrow, and then at home against West Virginia on Saturday. I think they need to split those games and then win a Big East tournament game. An 11-7 Big East record won't cut it, and even a 12-6 Big East record with a one-and-done Big East tournament performance will be iffy. Those computer numbers and that record vs the RPI Top 50 will be a major albatross.

Cincinnati falls to 10-6 in Big East play with this loss, but they're still in the NCAA Tournament for now. They have wins over Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall, along with bad losses to Presbyterian, St. John's and Rutgers. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 46th. Like USF, they can't afford to lose their final two regular season games (vs Marquette, at Villanova). And like USF, even with a split of their final two games I think they need to avoid a one-and-done in the Big East tournament. Remember, the Tournament bubble will tighten up over the next week and a half.

#15 Wisconsin 63, #9 Ohio State 60
I know I've fallen a little behind on these recaps. This game happened two days ago, and Wisconsin actually just played another game, beating Minnesota at home. But I wanted to talk about this game for a couple of reasons. First, in comparison to the USF/Cincy game, the execution here was just superb. These two teams are so good defensively that you need to play almost perfect offense to get an open shot. You could teach a clinic showing videotape of how Wisconsin defended Jared Sullinger (always forcing him to catch the ball facing the baseline) and how Ohio State tried to counter (running offensive players through the paint so Sullinger could pass behind the double-team). There's a misconception that lower scoring games are "ugly". They're ugly if the score is low because nobody is hitting shots. But if it's because each possession is a battle between two teams giving maximum effort and executing at the highest level, I find it beautiful.

This game has major implications for both teams. Ohio Sate is now 1-4 in games decided by five points or less. The irony of that bad luck is that if you were going to draw up a team that should be clutch in close games, Ohio State would be it. They have excellent scorers at all positions, a great point guard, lots of experience, and a coach who's won a ton of games. But that bad luck is why they're now considered a borderline 2/3 seed even though they are still rated the best team in the country by Sagarin (they are rated third best by Pomeroy). Assuming they can avoid the upset tomorrow at Northwestern, they will have a key game on Sunday at Michigan State. If they can knock off Michigan State and win the Big Ten tournament then they'll be a 1 seed. If they fall to Michigan State, though? Even winning the Big Ten tournament might not be enough for a 1 seed.

With this win plus the win tonight over Minnesota, Wisconsin assured themselves at least fourth place in the Big Ten, meaning a bye in the Big Ten tournament. They are now 6-6 against the RPI Top 50, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 15th. I'm pretty sure that they'd be a 4 seed if the season ended now. If they beat Illinois on Sunday and avoid a one-and-done Big Ten tournament, it's very hard to see them dropping below that 4 seed. With a strong Big Ten tournament they could push up to a 3 seed, and even a 2 seed isn't impossible if they can win the Big Ten tournament.

Colorado 70, California 57
It's like there's some sort of disease going through the Pac-12, and even California is getting caught up in it. They had surprising difficulty with Utah on Thursday (their lead was down to seven points halfway through the second half), and then were handled pretty firmly here by
Colorado. They were badly out-rebounded in this game (a 30.0 OR% for Colorado compared to a 13.8 OR% for California), and that created frustration for a California team that couldn't get easy baskets. Cal had only four offensive rebounds, forced only five turnovers, and hit only 31% of their threes. When you can't get easy baskets and you can't hit threes, offense becomes very difficult. Cal has scored under 0.95 PPP four times in Pac-12 play, and two of those four have been their last two games.

Cal is still rated as one of the 25 best teams in the country by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, and I haven't seen anybody in the mainstream media considering them a bubble team, but the reality is that their at-large resume is pretty soft. They are 0-3 against the RPI Top 50 and have a couple of bad losses (Oregon State and Washington State). Their RPI has fallen to 36th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is now 40th. Their final regular season game is no gimme either, on Sunday at Stanford. If they lose that game, expect the bubble talk to start to heat up.

While Cal is the only Pac-12 team that is definitely in the NCAA Tournament in the bracket, and Washington has the clear second best resume in the conference, there is a fight for a potential third Pac-12 spot. Colorado is one of the teams that could get into that conversation. They are now 11-5 in the Pac-12 and 4-5 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is up to 80th. The computer numbers are poor, but if they can win their final two games to get to 13-5? It will be hard for the Selection Committee to ignore a 13-5 team, even from the Pac-12. They'll have to win at the two Oregon schools to get there, though.

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