Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Temple Thumps Xavier

Temple 85, Xavier 72
This game was never close. Temple took out a quick 21-5 lead and led by as many as 23 points before cruising to the finish. Ramone Moore had 30 points, but the real dominant force was the Temple front line. Michael Eric and Rahlir Hollins-Jefferson each had six offensive rebounds apiece. In comparison, the entire Xavier team combined for seven. This has been typical of Temple all season long. They don't have any super scorers, or elite point guards, or great shooters, or dominant rebounders... but they're good at everything, will exploit the weaknesses of the other team (Xavier happens to be a poor rebounding team), and end up with excellent offensive efficiency. Temple is scoring 1.13 PPP in conference play, well ahead of every other team in the A-10 (Dayton is second, at 1.07).

The Atlantic Ten was a complete mess at the top for the first half of the conference season. But now that we're pushing into the middle of February, it does look like Temple and Saint Louis are pulling away. And those are the two Atlantic Ten teams that look safe for the NCAA Tournament. In fact, at this point I think those would be the only Atlantic Ten teams in the Tournament. And that means that, yes, Xavier has fallen all the way from #8 in the polls to the NIT... for the time being.

Xavier is now 7-4 in Atlantic Ten play with wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati, along with bad losses to Hawaii, Dayton and Oral Roberts. They're 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI has fallen to 56th, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS to 60th. They will get a chance for a big victory on February 28th at St. Louis. But barring a big upset there, they'll have to hope to get another chance at Temple or St. Louis in the Atlantic Ten tournament. Without a win over St. Louis or Temple then they'll need at least a 10-6 finish and then a couple of wins in the A-10 tournament. And even that will be dicey. It's just hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you don't have big wins and when your best performances of the season came back in November. Their next game will be on Saturday against Dayton.

Temple has won eight straight games to push out to 19-5 with a 9-3 record against the RPI Top 100. If the season ended now they'd be a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they can push as high as a 3 seed with a strong finish. They will play at St. Bonaventure on Wednesday, and then will come home to play Duquesne on Saturday. They also have road games at La Salle and St. Joe's to come.

#1 Kentucky 69, Vanderbilt 63
Vanderbilt was ice cold to start this game, scoring just 13 points in the opening 15 minutes. Every team struggles with Kentucky's length and athleticism defensively, but Vanderbilt also missed a few layups and a bunch of wide open jumpers. It was inevitable that their shooting would improve in the second half, and it did. In the end they had a decent 42.9 eFG% (Kentucky's only allowing a 42.1 eFG% this season in conference play). They managed to overcome a 13 points halftime deficit, but missed their final eight shots down the stretch. But that can be what happens when you're reduced to a jump shooting team. Kentucky blocked 12 shots in this game, and Vanderbilt just doesn't have a player that can challenge the Wildcats in the post.

This win moves Kentucky to 11-0 in SEC play, which effectively clinches the SEC regular season title. They're also closing in on a 1 seed in March. Their next game will be Saturday against Ole Miss. Their biggest test the rest of the way will be the road game at Florida on March 4th. The odds are that Kentucky is going to lose a game or two the rest of the way. Even in the state of the SEC, the odds are still always against any team going undefeated. But they can afford a loss or two without losing that 1 seed.

This loss represents a missed opportunity for Vanderbilt to really firm up their place in the NCAA Tournament. They're now 6-4 in SEC play with wins over Marquette, Alabama and NC State, along with bad losses to Indiana State and Arkansas. They're a respectable 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI is 28th. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 42nd. If they can go 3-3 down the stretch and then win a game in the SEC tournament then they should be a lock for an at-large bid. Their next game will be on Thursday at Ole Miss.

Washington 75, Oregon State 72
Washington has a tremendous athleticism/talent advantage over Oregon State, and it made the difference here during a sloppy game. The Huskies only had a 38.6 eFG% (their second worst shooting day in Pac-12 play this season), with only 9 assists all game long. But they owned the boards, managed to get out on the break with a bunch of steals, and managed to attack the rim and get to the free throw line almost at will (35 free throw attempts, despite being on the road). Against a higher quality team, this type of sloppy play wouldn't have resulted in a road win, but against Oregon State they could get away with it.

For a while it looked like California and Stanford were the clear big dogs in the Pac-12. But Stanford has fallen apart the past couple of weeks, and it's been Washington and Arizona playing the best (not including California - the clear best team in the conference). With this win, Washington pushes to a tie with California atop the Pac-12 at 10-3, which is important. I'm a believer that whatever the computer numbers, the Selection Committee is not going to leave a team out that goes 13-5 and wins a share of the Pac-12 title. Washington has a pretty easy home game coming up on Thursday against Arizona State, but then have a really key game on Saturday against Arizona. The winner of that game will be in a great position to earn the Pac-12's second at-large bid.

Oregon State has a respectable 15-10 record, but they're only 5-8 in the Pac-12 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 131st. They have no serious chance at an at-large bid and are just playing for Pac-12 tournament positioning. They currently sit in 9th place. This weekend they head on the road to face California and Stanford.

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