Sunday, February 26, 2012

W-2 BP68

Two weeks from Selection Sunday. You might not realize it, but the first conference tournaments tip off on Monday. Less than 48 hours from now. I love the fact that almost every team in Division I gets to play in a conference tournament, meaning that well over 300 different teams still have a chance to be National Champions. I will have the first of my conference tournament previews out Sunday night.

There was only one change to the Field of 68 since the last bracket. VCU is now my pick to win the Colonial, replacing George Mason. Meanwhile, seven different teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Buffalo, Cleveland State, Duquesne, Kent State, La Salle, UCLA and Virginia Tech. That leaves 33 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

My next bracket projection will be out after Wednesday night's games.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Michigan State
2. Missouri
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Georgetown
3. Baylor
3. Wisconsin

4. Michigan
4. Louisville
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

5. Florida
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)
5. Indiana
5. UNLV

6. Purdue
6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. Saint Louis
6. Notre Dame

7. San Diego State
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. Virginia
7. Gonzaga

8. Kansas State
8. Iowa State
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)
8. Vanderbilt

9. Creighton
9. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
9. Texas
9. Florida State

10. Cincinnati
10. BYU
10. Alabama
10. Washington

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Seton Hall
11. UConn
11. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)

12. West Virginia
12. Northwestern
12. Southern Miss
12. Arizona
12. Miami (Fl)

13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
13. Xavier
13. Mississippi State
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. WAGNER (NEC)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
St. Joseph's, Drexel, Colorado State, Oregon

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
South Florida, Illinois, Central Florida

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Dayton, Iowa, Minnesota, Marshall, Akron, Wyoming, Colorado, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, South Dakota State, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Maryland, UMass, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Weber State, Oklahoma State, George Mason, Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, TCU, Stanford, Georgia, Mississippi

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

You don't look silly because OSU lost today. You look silly because you claim that OSU had the second best chance to claim a 1 seed when they needed to win out.

Jeff said...

My goal is to look silly. I'm the worst bracketologist on the planet, don'cha know!

I'm glad somebody as brilliant as you with a long track record of successful projections much more often than not is able to take time out of his busy day to come here each week to tell me how dumb I am.

Anonymous said...

Having OSU as the second likeliest No. 1 seed was just foolhardy. He did get Purdue right though.

DMoore said...

I see you have South Florida two tiers away from being an at large team. I realize the prediction was before the Cincinnati game, and I would guess they split their final two conference games and end up at 12-6 in conference. Do you really think the selection committee can/will objectively assess their schedule and deny a team that went 12-6 in the Big East, no matter how lame their specific wins & losses are?

Jeff said...

Well, beating Cincy moves them up a tier. I don't think a split in their final two games is a given, though. They're more likely to lose both remaining games than win both remaining games.

That 1-7 record against the RPI Top 50 just stares at me. What's the difference between a 12-6 South Florida and a 12-6 Arizona?

I think South Florida needs two more wins to make the Tournament, either in the regular season or the Big East tournament. I still don't think they're going to get that.

Tom said...

As far as conference records go, even though South Florida has put together theirs against the bottom of the Big East, their conference SOS is still better than Arizona's, .6005 to .5206. More than that though, what will bog USF down is their 6-6 NC record including 3 sub-100 losses, including a loss to Auburn in which they scored 40 points.

Jeff said...

That was my point, Tom. USF's conference performance is better, but Arizona's non-conference performance is better. Overall I think those teams are a wash, and that's assuming they end up with the same conference record.

I just linked those two teams because they have the same general characteristic of a gaudy record against a soft schedule, and a lack of big wins.

Tom said...

Yeah I'd agree with that. I think I'd take Arizona today over USF, but it's close because neither one is getting enough big wins.

Jeff said...

I think both of them are in trouble, honestly. The bubble always gets a lot stronger in the final two weeks. That's when the media transitions from "This is the weakest bubble I've ever seen" to "How could they possible keep this team out? They were so deserving!"

Anonymous said...

I think Wichita State at a four seed is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, they have done very well in Valley Play, but look at their resume as a whole. Their best win is #18 UNLV. Sure, they beat a mediocre Colorado team and a pretty good CS Fullerton team, but they have bad losses to Temple and Alabama. They lost to Creighton their first game and they luckily caught them when they were in a shooting slump. They are definitely hot right now, and could beat anyone they play. But resume wise there are at least 6 teams seeded below them that have a more impressive resume. (New Mexico, Florida, Indiana, UNLV, San Diego State, Kansas State) I'd even argue that Creighton has a better resume, besides their 3 game losing streak. I know that this is a PREDICTION site, but I don't understand how Wichita's State's weak resume can still land them a PREDICTED 4 seed.