Thursday, February 23, 2012

W-2.5 BP68

It's that time of the year. You can smell it in the air. Less than a week from the start of conference tournaments, I promise to have the first of my conference tournament previews up within a few days.

Within the bracket itself, there weren't too many changes. All of the projected conference champions stayed the same. The one change to the Field of 68 was Xavier moving in and Illinois dropping out. That said, I don't feel good about Xavier (or Miami or Northwestern, for that matter). All of them have a <50% chance of getting into the Tournament. As I've said many times, we will see several bids stolen during the conference tournaments, and those last few at-large teams are the going to be the victims.

If there's a story with the bubble, it's the number of mid-major teams on it. All five of the teams "seriously considered" that were left out are from mid-major conferences. Okay, I was just joking about Oregon... only four of the five are mid-majors.

There were only three teams eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Denver, Illinois State and Rutgers. That leaves 40 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

My next bracket projection will be out after Saturday night's games.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Missouri
2. Michigan State
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Georgetown
3. Baylor
3. Louisville

4. Wisconsin
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Michigan
4. Florida

5. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
5. Saint Louis
5. Indiana
5. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

6. UNLV
6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. Purdue
6. Virginia

7. Notre Dame
7. San Diego State
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. Kansas State

8. Vanderbilt
8. Iowa State
8. Gonzaga
8. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)

9. Creighton
9. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
9. Texas
9. Florida State

10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. Seton Hall
10. BYU
10. Cincinnati

11. UConn
11. Alabama
11. West Virginia
11. Washington

12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
12. Southern Miss
12. Mississippi State
12. Northwestern
12. Miami (Fl)

13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
13. Arizona
13. Xavier
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)

14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. WAGNER (NEC)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
St. Joseph's, Drexel, VCU, Colorado State, Oregon

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, South Florida, Illinois, Central Florida, Colorado, LSU

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Dayton, UMass, Iowa, Minnesota, Marshall, Akron, Wyoming, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota State, Nevada

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Virginia Tech, Duquesne, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Weber State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Cleveland State, Buffalo, Kent State, Northern Iowa, TCU, UCLA, Georgia, Mississippi

24 comments:

Denali said...

I don't understand how you still think Ohio State is more likely to get a #1 seed than Syracuse.

Ohio State already has 5 losses and still has 3 regular season games including a road game at Michigan State - a team they recently lost to by 10 points at home. Then they play in the Big Ten Tournament, which you have been claiming all season long is by far the hardest conference.

By comparison, Syracuse only has 1 loss and its remaining 2 games are against a UConn team that is in total free-fall and a home game against Louisville that they have alrady beaten on the road. Then they play in the Big East Tournament, a conference which you have been claiming is vastly inferior to the Big Ten.

I understand you believe that Ohio State is "certainly" the best team in the country, and you've cited to several computer rankings to support that. But your blog isn't supposed to be a ranking of who you think are the best teams. Rather, it purports to predict the seeds in the NCAA tournament - your blog is called "Basketball Predictions" not "Best Basketball Teams."

I understand that you've had Syracuse as a #1 seed all season and that putting Ohio State above Syracuse as a #1 seed is a minor mistake, but it is a mistake nonetheless (one that was pointed out to you in your previous ranking) so it is worth noting.

Jeff said...

We beat this to death earlier in the week. We're not going to make any headway on this. Everybody has made their arguments already.

Original Idiotic Mizzou Fan said...

Original Mizzou fan slash Texas hater here again. (Maybe I should just create an account or something by now.)

For once, I'll discuss something other than Texas. I have love for the Atlantic 10, just as you do. I do believe that Temple and SLU are worthy teams at 4 and 5 seeds. I am curious, though, why you think the committee will show both of them that much love. It would blow me away if the committee did so. If I had to venture a guess, Temple as a 4 is not farfetched; great RPI, victories over Duke, Wichita State, and SLU (regular season), and likely regular season champion of the A-10.

I think SLU deserves more love than they are going to get, and after becoming familiar with your work, I am guessing that you think they will win the A-10 tourney. And they have a decent shot. But I doubt the committee gives them that much love. Something like a 7 seems like their best case scenario, as unfair as that may be.

Thoughts?

Jeff said...

I'm still picking Temple to win the A-10 tournament. The capitalized teams with the conferences in parenthesis are the auto-bid winners. That's why I have Temple so high. Temple probably can't get a 4 or 5 seed unless they win the A-10 tournament.

I think St. Louis is going to win their final three regular season games, including that game against Xavier, and I expect that to move them into the Top 25. The media is then going to start realizing how good St. Louis is.

During Championship Week, you're going to start seeing people on ESPN and CBS talking about how they've discovered this new sleeper team: St. Louis.... as if they're letting viewers in on some secret that they can't possibly learn from the rubes that don't have television commentary jobs on major networks.

Old Prospector said...

So with regards to Vandy, you think they will go 0-3 down the stretch? Is that how you wound up an 8 seed?

Jeff said...

I think Vanderbilt would be either a 7 or 8 seed if the season ended now. Unless they win at Kentucky (which I don't think they will) they'll have to do some damage in the SEC tournament to move higher than an 8.

Chris said...

Don't forget St Louis is playing at Rhode Island this weekend. They could lose that game....ohhhh, who am I kidding? URI sucks this year.

:-(

Jeff said...

Hey, I do appreciate the effort that Rhode Island has put into a lot of their games. But... the talent differential is just so vast between them and St. Louis. Can't see it being a close game.

Maybe next season?

Anonymous said...

Having Ohio State as a more likely No. 1 seed than Syracuse is beyond laughable.

Jeff said...

I'm glad I could at least provide some entertainment to those readers that know so much more about basketball than me.

Anonymous said...

Thumbs up Denali.

Anonymous said...

Since your last bracket on Sunday, Purdue has jumped five teams: Virginia, SDSU, Vanderbilt, Texas, and Florida State. I understand why Purdue overtook Texas and SDSU; both those teams lost games they should have won since your last bracket. The other three teams won all their games between bracket posts:

Florida State beat NC State.
Virginia beat Maryland and Virginia Tech.
Vanderbilt beat Georgia and South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Purdue lost to Michigan State beat Nebraska.

In their final three games, Purdue has a winnable game vs Penn State, but they also go on the road to Indiana and Michigan - two teams that have been virtually unbeatable at home. They will likely end up around 20-13 after the Big 10 Tournament, with their best win vs Temple and their next best win being either Minnesota or Miami. Moreover, Purdue has recently booted an important contributor off their team.

Two questions:

A) Why did you jump Purdue over the three teams listed above since your last bracket? In other words, what have you seen in the past four days that has changed your mind about these three teams, and why do you now think Purdue will have a better resume than them by season's end?

and

B) Since yours is a bracket that tries to predict how the bracket on Selection Sunday will look (instead of an "if the season ended today" analysis), how do you see the rest of Purdue's season playing out to warrant a 6 seed?

Jeff said...

Well, I had wanted to move Purdue up to a 6 seed in Saturday's bracket, but had held back because of the Byrd/Barlow situation. Even though Purdue's results against Michigan State and Nebraska were what was expected (a 1-1 record), I thought Purdue played well. They hung tough with Michigan State (they were only undone by some atrocious shooting to start the second half), and they wiped the floor with Nebraska. Robbie Hummel looked the best he had all season long.

So with that play, I have more confidence that Purdue has a good chance of stealing a second win down the stretch. And if they don't get a second win then they'll be the 6 seed in the Big Ten tournament, where I think they'll win a pair of games (knocking off the 3 seed Michigan). Anything less than one of those two scenarios and they'll finish with a seed in the 7-9 range, rather than a 6 seed.

Anonymous said...

Gotcha. But why the jump over Florida state? Do you think purdue will end up with a better resume? And why the 9 spot drop for Florida state since the last bracket?

Jeff said...

Florida State didn't really earn that this past week. I was just staring at the bracket and felt like I had them over-seeded.

I really don't know what to make of this Florida State team, honestly. They are the most inconsistent team in the nation this year, and it's just so hard to project what they're going to do in the future.

And even on Selection Sunday, when we know the exact final Florida State resume, it's still going to be difficult to place them in the bracket. They're going to have such a goofy combination of big wins and bad losses.

The only team is recent memory to have a resume this bizarre is the 2008-09 Boston College team that beat North Carolina, Duke and a highly rated Florida State team, but then also lost to a horrible Harvard team and a bad St. Louis team. That team went 9-7 in a much stronger ACC than we have this year, and ended up with a 7 seed.

This Florida State team will have worse losses than that Boston College team. They'll have a better conference record, but against a softer conference. It's a difficult comparison...

Anonymous said...

St. Johns last year had the craziest resume, possibly ever.

Jeff said...

That was a crazy one, too, though St. John's did manage to get their bad losses out of the way by mid-December. The Selection Committee has historically looked at teams with bad play early in the season and strong play late and has chosen to give much more weight to the late play. USC last season is another classic example of that.

Continuing to alternate big wins and bad losses is what makes Florida State so confusing to me. You can't just dismiss these bad losses since they're still happening in February!

Anonymous said...

Purdue a 6 seed? Wow, I must be missing something here.

Scott said...

Montana? Ok there's not much worth talken about 15 or 16 seeds but, Weber State needing a merical to get in the tourney? Weber State will beat Montana this Tuesday to win the Big Sky league and rights to host the league tourney which they will win the automatic berth into the field of 64!

Jeff said...

The "miracle" refers to their at-large chances. They certainly will contend with Montana for the Big West's auto bid.

Anonymous said...

If South Dakota State wins the Summit League championship, what seed do you think they would get?

Personally, despite Oral Roberts locking up the #1 seed, I think South Dakota State is the favorite to win the conference tournament. SDSU went 1-1 against Oral Roberts this year, their computer rankings are pretty close (SDSU is slightly higher in Pomeroy and Sagarin), and the Summit tournament is in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Jeff said...

South Dakota State would almost certainly be a 12 seed or a 13 seed.

I'd love to see South Dakota State & Oral Roberts play in the finals. So far in conference play, Oral Roberts has been the best offense, and South Dakota St has been the best defense. And they've split their season series. I don't think the location of the tournament will matter much, but it should be a great game.

Anonymous said...

Not trying to start a fight like some of these other posters, but I have to strongly disagree with you about the tournament location not being a factor. South Dakota State fans are going to show up in droves for the Summit tournament. Don't forget, last Saturday Nate Wolters ended up winning ESPN's "Under the Radar Player" Bracketbuster poll with nearly 50% of the vote, beating ESPN darling Isaiah Canaan. That should give you a hint about how obsessed SDSU fans are about this year's team.

I understand if you think playing in a different arena will have an impact on depth perception or something equivalent, but I can guarantee the crowd will be like a raucous home game every time South Dakota State plays in the conference tournament.

Jeff said...

Nate Wolters is a great player, and I'm sure South Dakota State is basketball crazy right now. I've just found that there is little correlation between crowd size at conference tournaments and home court advantage.

A true home game is worth 4 points. If you have a situation where it's a different arena, but the crowd is overwhelmingly supportive for one team... maybe it's worth 2 points? I'm don't think that will make a difference.

I'm starting to write up my conference tournament previews. When I get to the Summit, I'll take a closer look at the player match-ups to see if I see a clear advantage that one has over the other.


By the way, you don't have to be a South Dakota State homer to think that Wolters is having a better season than Canaan. Canaan gets the hype because his team is ranked, but Wolters is the better all-around player. Wolters is the better passer and rebounder, and he's better at taking the ball to the hoop and scoring. Canaan is the much better three-point shooter, but that's about it. And from the little I've been able to watch of South Dakota State, they're equivalent defenders, though it's hard to judge (particularly against unequal competition).