Thursday, February 16, 2012

W-3.5 BP68

With Wednesday night's games in the books, it's time for another bracket projection. Honestly, the past few days haven't been too exciting, so there haven't been too many changes from my last bracket. Things should heat up this weekend with Bracketbusters.

The bubble is small, but remember that the bubble will only get better from here on out. Teams will steal auto-bids and some bubble teams will go on winning streaks. So rather than teams like Dayton or South Florida or Colorado making runs at at-large bids, we're more likely to see teams like Mississippi State, Kansas State and Southern Miss getting dragged back to the bubble.

And that's why even though I have three (yes, three!) Pac-12 teams in my bracket with Washington entering in place of NC State, I would bet against the Pac-12 getting three teams in on Selection Sunday. Arizona and Washington still have to play, and the loser of that game is going to be in trouble.

Only three teams were eliminated from at-large contention since Saturday: Loyola-Maryland, St. John's and Tulsa. That leaves 51 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Duke
2. Missouri
2. Michigan State

3. Georgetown
3. Florida
3. Marquette
3. Baylor

4. UNLV (MWC)
4. Wisconsin
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Louisville

5. Indiana
5. Michigan
5. Saint Louis
5. WICHITA STATE (MVC)

6. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
6. Virginia
6. San Diego State
6. Vanderbilt

7. Texas
7. Gonzaga
7. New Mexico
7. Iowa State

8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
8. Purdue
8. Florida State
8. Creighton

9. Illinois
9. UConn
9. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)
9. Notre Dame

10. Kansas State
10. West Virginia
10. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
10. BYU

11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Southern Miss
11. Alabama
11. Cincinnati

12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
12. Mississippi State
12. Seton Hall
12. Arizona
12. Northwestern

13. Miami (Fl)
13. Washington
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)

14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

15. WAGNER (NEC)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Xavier, Minnesota, VCU

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
St. Joseph's, UMass, South Florida, Drexel, Central Florida, Colorado State, Colorado, Oregon, Arkansas, LSU, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Dayton, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Marshall, Cleveland State, Akron, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Stanford, UCLA, Mississippi, Tennessee, South Dakota State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Duquesne, Rutgers, Villanova, Weber State, Iowa, Oklahoma, Old Dominion, Valparaiso, Buffalo, Kent State, Illinois State, Indiana State, TCU, Oregon State, Georgia, Denver

10 comments:

DMoore said...

I'm curious what changed since the last prediction to cause you to add Washington and drop NC State. Neither of them did anything surprising since -- was the road win at Oregon State a big surprise?

Jeff said...

It wasn't a "surprise", but it was a 50-50 game. If they'd lost then they'd be in trouble for an at-large bid. But because they won they're now 10-3 in the Pac-12, which means they only need to go 3-2 down the stretch to probably be an at-large team.

NC State didn't do anything bad, but they were always <50% to get into the Field of 68. They just happened to be slightly ahead of Washington after Saturday's games.

Chris said...

Thanks, Jeff.

I'm curious; of the auto-bids, which do you think are most likely to be won by teams not currently in the field of 68 and creating a stronger bubble?

I would think the major conferences will most likely be won by teams already in the field, even if not by the teams you've predicted, while the smaller conferences wouldn't really affect the bubble. So that leaves the mid-majors (and Pac-12) as the conferences to watch, right? Or am I missing a piece of the puzzle?

Jeff said...

This year in particular I'd say that there are a number of conferences that could have bid stealers. Obviously it's unlikely that we'll see one in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC, but it's not unprecedented. Remember Georgia from four years ago.

As you said, the best chances for stolen bids are the mid-majors (and the Pac-12, which is basically a mid-major league this year). I would say that Conference USA, the Pac-12, the Atlantic Ten and the Missouri Valley all have excellent chances of auto-bid "stealers".

And on top of that, it's not inconceivable that we'll see a bid stolen in the WCC or OVC.

So between all of those conferences, the odds are that we'll see at least 2 or 3 total.

Tom said...

I don't think Arizona has to beat Washington... unless they lose at Washington State. I still see the Cats going 4-1 down the stretch to reach 13-5. Considering head to head is irrelevant and that Arizona and UW won't be directly competing for a spot, I still feel pretty decent about AZ's chances (and UW) to reach 13-5.

Jeff said...

I agree, Tom. Neither Arizona or Washington has to win that game to get to 13-5. It's not an "elimination game".

I'm just saying that the winner will have a relatively easy path to 13-5, while the loser will have a much more difficult path. So the game will be crucial for both teams.

Tom said...

Gotcha. As for non-Arizona/Pac-12 related business... it looks like you think this will be the year Northwestern finally breaks through. Which is awesome, but they're still 5-8 in conference and are something like 4-10 vs. the top 100. Is the MSU win the only thing keeping them alive and how strong do they need to finish? Again, I know there's no magic number... but could 8-10 maybe do the trick?

Also, NC State: is it as simple as winning one of the next three and taking care of business in the others?

Jeff said...

Well, I'd say that Northwestern has close to a 50% chance of getting in. The two teams I have in the field below them are below that. Northwestern has to get to at least 8-10 in conference play, which I think they have a good chance to do, and then they need a win in the Big Ten tournament. If they achieve that then they'll have a good chance of getting in. Remember, their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 39th, and we never have more than one or two teams higher than 40th that get denied an at-large bid.

As for NC State, I do think they need to steal one of the next three. If they do that then I think they'll need three more wins. Either winning their final three regular season games, or winning two of three and then an ACC tournament game.

zach said...

This isn't related to this bracket, more a general question.

Is the new espn bpi rating useful? I don't have a mathematical mind, and so I need a translator for these sorts of things. Hocus Pocus like their weird overclutched Quarterback rating or the real deal ala Hollinger?

Jeff said...

It's a little hard to know because I haven't seen anywhere that ESPN actually explains what their system is. As far as I can tell, the results it pushes out are basically like the combination Sagarin ratings - a cross between team quality and team results.

I don't really see what the purpose is, though. It's not filling a void.