Sunday, February 12, 2012

W-4 BP68

It seems like we should be more than four weeks from Selection Sunday... but here we are. The bracket is really starting to take shape and the bubble is starting to shrink.

The Pac-12 wheel of destiny continues to spin, with seemingly half the conference sitting near the bubble, and the real possibility that none of them will earn an at-large bid. Washington's loss to Oregon dropped them out of the bracket, and I moved Arizona into the bracket in their place. Arizona nearly embarrassed themselves with a loss to Utah, but a win's a win, and they've got a great shot now to reach 13-5. As I've said several times, I don't see how any team that reaches 13-5 in the Pac-12 will get denied, even if the computer numbers aren't quite there.

Cleveland State had to be dropped out of their bracket after their awful three day stretch. It feels like I've struggled to fill the last at-large spot in each bracket for weeks, but it was even more difficult this week than usual. I finally settled on the University of Miami. Remember that a few at-large spots are going to get stolen as we get into the conference tournaments. A couple of auto bids will get stolen, and a couple of teams out of the bracket will get hot and earn at-large bids. None of the teams currently with 11, 12 or 13 seeds are safe.

None of the auto bids were changed since the last bracket, but I have changed my Missouri Valley champion. Wichita State is now my pick after destroying Creighton. Of course, both of those teams are still safely in the field anyway, so it doesn't change the makeup of the Tournament field.

As I said, the bubble is starting to tighten. 12 teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Air Force, Auburn, DePaul, Drake, Georgia State, Nebraska, Providence, Richmond, Texas A&M, UTEP, Tulane, and Washington State. That leaves 54 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:


1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Duke
2. Missouri
2. Michigan State

3. UNLV (MWC)
3. Georgetown
3. Florida
3. Marquette

4. Baylor
4. Wisconsin
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Louisville

5. Virginia
5. San Diego State
5. Indiana
5. ST. MARY'S (WCC)

6. Michigan
6. Saint Louis
6. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
6. Vanderbilt

7. Illinois
7. Creighton
7. Texas
7. Florida State

8. Kansas State
8. Gonzaga
8. New Mexico
8. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

9. Iowa State
9. Purdue
9. West Virginia
9. UConn

10. Alabama
10. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
10. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)
10. Southern Miss

11. BYU
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Notre Dame
11. Mississippi State

12. Northwestern
12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
12. Cincinnati
12. NC State
12. Arizona

13. Seton Hall
13. Miami (Fl)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (SUN BELT)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. BUTLER (HORIZON)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WAGNER (NEC)

16. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Xavier, Minnesota, VCU, Colorado State, Washington

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Dayton, St. Joseph's, UMass, Oklahoma, Drexel, Central Florida, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, La Salle, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Oklahoma State, Marshall, Tulsa, Akron, Missouri State, UCLA, South Dakota State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Charlotte, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, St. John's, Villanova, Weber State, Iowa, Old Dominion, Valparaiso, Loyola-Maryland, Buffalo, Kent State, Illinois State, Indiana State, TCU, Oregon State, Georgia, Tennessee, Denver

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well, at least you finally made Kentucky the #1 overall seed. There's no way Ohio State will be higher than Syracuse on the s-curve either. #2 teams on the s-curve do not get handled at home.

Jeff said...

Ohio State is still clearly the best team in the country. I can assure you that if either Syracuse, Kansas or Kentucky had to play ten games at home against the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan State and Indiana, that they'd get "handled" at least once or twice.

Again, one of the biggest misperceptions among fans is the concept of probability. If Syracuse or Kentucky played 100 home games against the 50th best team in the country, they'd lose some of those games. Every team can lose at home, every team can get "handled" at home.

So, yes, #2 teams on the s-curve do "get handled at home", as do #1 teams.

The reason Ohio State got dropped to #2 in my bracket is simply because there's a very real chance that they won't win their conference, while Kentucky is basically a lock to win theirs. And Kentucky will have a much easier path to winning their conference tournament than Ohio State. So even though Ohio State is the better team, Kentucky is more likely to earn a 1 seed.

Anonymous said...

'Clearly'. No one's arguing who's better between Syracuse, OSU, and Kentucky. The NCAA does not pick the 64 best teams. They pick the 64 best resumes. And at this point, there is little chance that Syracuse or Kentucky's resume will be worse than OSU's.

Jeff said...

You are definitely right that it's the best resumes and not the best teams, but keep in mind that sweeping the Big Ten titles this year will be much more impressive than sweeping the Big East or SEC titles.

Kentucky and Syracuse will probably end up with fewer losses than Ohio State, but I wouldn't be so certain that they'll end up with better resumes.

That's also why Kansas has a lot of room to grow. Sweeping the Big 12 titles would be more impressive than sweeping the Big East or SEC titles also.

I do think everybody can agree, though, that Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas and Missouri are the five teams that control their own destiny for 1 seeds. Sweep their regular season and conference titles and they'll be 1 seeds.

Anonymous said...

I think you have K-State too high. If you're picking Kansas to be a 1 seed, then you clearly think they'll win in Manhattan tomorrow. Combine that with their next 2 games (@Baylor, @Mizzou), and they could easily be 6-9 in conference and really in a quandry.

Their strong non-conference and marquee win over Mizzou should be enough to get them in, but if they don't beat Kansas they look like a double-digit seed to me at this point.

Jeff said...

The Kansas vs Kansas State game is a toss-up. Kansas certainly doesn't need to win it to get a 1 seed. Beating Missouri at home should get them at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title. That, plus the Big 12 tournament title will earn a 1 seed.

Kansas State is likely to finish either 9-9 or 10-8, and along with a win in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament they should be right around an 8 or 9 seed, I think.

All three of Kansas State's next three games will be very tough, but the odds are that they'll win at least one of them.

Troll said...

K State wins the Baylor game methinks.

Jeff sucks.