Louisville 50, Cincinnati 44
If this was a Big Ten game, everybody would be killing the quality of play. The Big East tournament all the way through just had major offensive problems. Part of it is that there are some really good defenses (Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, South Florida, etc), but the offenses also just aren't very good. There are only two Big East teams currently rated higher than 35th in Pomeroy adjusted offensive efficiency. In the final 2:30 of this game, Cincy shot 0-for-3 from the field, 0-for-2 at the line and committed a turnover.
Louisville has shot up the bracket with this Big East tournament victory. They only went 10-8 in Big East play, but they are now 13-8 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that should be right around 15th. Considering that the Selection Committee has always given a nice boost to teams that win the Big East tournament title, it's hard to see Louisville getting worse than a 4 seed, and they could even slide up to a 3.
Cincinnati's RPI is only 42nd, but that's artificially depressed by a terrible non-conference strength of schedule (Pomeroy rates it 338th toughest). They went 7-5 against the RPI Top 50, with wins over Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown (twice), Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn and Seton Hall, along with bad losses to Presbyterian, Rutgers and St. John's. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is going to end up right around 25th, and they'll probably end up with a 6 or 7 seed. They could slide up to a 5 seed if the Selection Committee wants to reward them for making the Big East tournament title game and for finishing strong (8-3 in their final 11 games).
#5 Missouri 90, #11 Baylor 75
Missouri went 3-0 against Baylor this season. I think they just match up really well with them. Baylor has a ton of size and length, with a real weakness (and lack of depth) in the backcourt. There's nothing more useless against Missouri than size (just ask Kansas), and there's nothing that you need more against Missouri than backcourt depth. Missouri led by double-digits for most of the second half, and now they'll wait to see if they'll be a 1 or a 2 seed. If North Carolina loses to Florida State then Missouri will be in good shape. If UNC and Ohio State both win tomorrow, though, then it will be difficult for Missouri to climb to the 1 line.
Baylor went 12-6 in the Big 12 and 9-7 against the RPI Top 50. They have wins over Kansas, Texas (twice), Iowa State, St. Mary's, West Virginia, BYU and San Diego State, with no bad losses. Their RPI is 9th, which is right around where their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be. It's hard to see them not being a 3 seed. I think that's basically a lock.
New Mexico 68, #21 San Diego State 59
Despite being the un-ranked team in this game, New Mexico was a 4.5 point favorite in Vegas. They are the better team, and they showed it here. Their defense is just really, really good. They held Mountain West opponents to 0.90 PPP this season, and held San Diego State to 0.88 PPP here. New Mexico isn't quite as underrated as they were earlier this season, of course. They finished the season 27-6, and 9-4 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that is going to be right around 20th. They should end up a 4 or 5 seed, which is basically about right, in my opinion.
San Diego State won a share of the Mountain West regular season title, and they went 9-6 against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over UNLV, New Mexico, California and Colorado State (twice), along with a bad loss to Air Force. Their RPI is 26th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should be in the 20-25 range. They'll probably end up right around a 6 seed, though they could get moved up or down a line depending on geography.