Saturday, March 10, 2012

Miami Falls To Florida State, NIT?

#17 Florida State 82, Miami (Fl) 71
Florida State doesn't need a lot of offense to win when you consider how good their defense is. They had a 57.0 eFG% here, and when they shoot that well they tend to win. This season, they are 18-0 when they have a 51.0 or better eFG%. When they have a 50.9 or worse eFG%? They're 4-9. Michael Snaer led the way with 20 points, including 5-for-6 behind the arc. Miami hit 40% of their threes and did a really good job on the offensive boards (bringing down 14 of them), which is what you need to do against Florida State, but FSU's hot shooting did the Hurricanes in.

Miami now will have to sweat out Selection Sunday. They came into today rated one of the 40 best teams in the country by both Sagarin and Pomeroy, but their resume is awfully soft. They went only 3-11 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Duke and Florida State to go with a bad loss to Maryland. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is also sitting around 55th. It's possible that the Selection Committee will give them a pass because of some injuries early in the season, but there isn't a whole lot of precedent of the Committee doing that. And that 3-11 record against the RPI Top 100 is just awful for a bubble team. Miami is still on the bubble, but at this point I'd say that they're more likely to go to the NIT than to the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State will move ahead to face Duke in the ACC semifinals. They are 9-7 against the RPI Top 100 and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move up to around 30th. Their big wins (over North Carolina and Duke) mean that it's unlikely that they'll be seeded worse than a 7 seed, but I also don't think they can get higher than a 6 seed unless they beat Duke. A win in the ACC tournament could potentially push them as high as a 4.

#7 Ohio State 88, Purdue 71
Purdue doesn't have a lot of front court depth, and Ohio State just pounded the ball into the paint against them. Purdue hit 46% of their threes, but the Buckeyes hit 73% of their twos, led by Jared Sullinger's monster 12-for-17 performance. Purdue actually played well, including 20 points off the bench from DJ Byrd, but Ohio State is just too good when they're at their best. There was nothing Purdue could do.

With Kansas going down, the door to a 1 seed has cracked open quite a bit wider for Ohio State. If they can win the Big Ten tournament then they'll more likely than not have a top seed. Even if they lose to Michigan tomorrow, I don't think they can fall lower than a 2 seed.

Purdue went 10-8 in Big Ten play, though they finished only 3-10 against the RPI Top 50. They had wins over Michigan State, Temple, Miami (Fl) and Northwestern (twice), along with bad losses to Butler and Penn State. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should be in the 25-30 range. They're likely going to be a 7 or 8 seed, and could fall to a 9.

Xavier 70, Dayton 69
Tu Holloway had an excellent 21 points to drag Dayton Xavier back into this game, though it was Mark Lyons who outscored Dayton 7-0 in the final three minutes. Dayton had multiple chances, and just couldn't hit. It's a tough way to end the season for a Dayton team that actually was in pretty good shape in mid-to-late January. They went 6-7 in their final 13 games of the season, and might as well pack for the NIT now. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will fall out of the Top 75.

Xavier will face St. Louis in the Atlantic Ten semifinals next. Is that a must-win for them? This was their 20th win of the season and they went 10-6 in A-10 play, with an 8-10 record against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati, along with a bad loss to Hawaii. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 55th when the new numbers come out tomorrow morning. Will they get a pass for that bad play when they had post-brawl suspensions? I don't think so. The Selection Committee has little history of giving a pass for players injured for a few games, and they certainly shouldn't give Xavier a pass for suspensions that were their own fault. So while Xavier is on the bubble now, I think that the odds are very much against them making the NCAA Tournament unless they beat St. Louis.


Des said...

Tu Holloway had an excellent 21 points to drag Dayton back into this game. Didn't know tu transferred just for this game hah.

Jeff said...

Oops. Fixed. That's what I get for not having an editor.