Xavier 71, St. Louis 64
Tu Holloway has been coming to life lately, scoring 20+ in three straight games. Xavier's offense as a whole was absolutely clicking here, with a 58.9 eFG% and only 11 turnovers. That doesn't sound impressive, but St. Louis has one of the best defenses in the country. The 1.11 PPP that Xavier scored are tied for the most St. Louis has allowed in a game since November. The Billikens had held 13 of their previous 14 opponents to 1.00 PPP or below.
St. Louis went 12-4 in the Atlantic Ten and they finish 8-5 against the RPI Top 100. They only have two RPI Top 50 wins (both came against Xavier) and they have two RPI 100+ losses (Rhode Island and Loyola-Marymount), and their soft schedule is going to harm their seed, but they're still safely in the NCAA tournament. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be around 40th, and they should be a 10 or 11 seed. Keep in mind that they're only being held back by a soft schedule and some bad luck. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy will rate them as one of the 20 best teams in the country, so they're going to be a really good team to pick as a Round of 64 upset and a dark horse Sweet 16 team... depending on their opponents, of course.
Xavier went 10-6 in Atlantic Ten play and this win pushes them to 9-10 against the RPI Top 100. They have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati and St. Louis, along with a bad loss to Hawaii. Their RPI is 36th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will move up to around 50th. If the season ended now I think they'd be an at-large team, though they're definitely not safe. A win over St. Bonaventure tomorrow will seal the auto-bid, otherwise they're going to have to sweat out the Selection Show.
#17 Florida State 62, #6 Duke 59
Seth Curry almost hit a miraculous three-pointer from half court at the buzzer, but it rimmed out and delivered a huge victory for Florida State. This is the second time Duke has fallen to Florida State this season, and it does seem like the Seminoles length really bothers their offense. Duke finished with a 42.2 eFG% here, and only 0.92 PPP. Both of those numbers represent season-worst performance for the Blue Devils. Florida State's offense is also looking sharper than it was early in the season. The emergence of Michael Snaer is obviously a big part of that.
With this loss, Duke effectively locks up a 2 seed. Florida State, meanwhile, is still only 4-5 against the RPI Top 50, but they beat North Carolina and have a pair of wins over Duke, and their RPI is up to 16th (though their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should be around 25th). This win should make them a 5 or 6 seed, and they could potentially move up to a 4 if they beat North Carolina tomorrow.
#7 Ohio State 77, #13 Michigan 55
This game was never close - a total blowout by the Buckeyes. Michigan just couldn't find an open shot against the suffocating Ohio State defense, while they themselves had no answer for Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas (a combined 46 points on 19-for-29 shooting). The level of demolition might have been a bit surprising, but not the fact that Ohio State won easily. They're simply a much better team. These teams both went 13-5 in conference play, but Michigan did it by going 6-2 in games decided by five point or less, while Ohio State did it by going only 3-4 in games decided by five points or less.
The Buckeyes will get their shot at a 1 seed tomorrow against Michigan State. If they win and North Carolina wins the ACC tournament then there will be a tight battle for those final two top seeds that Ohio State may or may not win. If they lose to Michigan State tomorrow then they'll be a 2 seed.
Michigan finished 7-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 13-7 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa State and Memphis. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be somewhere in the 10-15 range. They will be a 3 or 4 seed, and in my view will probably be a 3.