Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Preseason BP68

After finishing up my initial set of 2012-13 conference previews, it's time for my first bracket projection of the 2012-13 season. Obviously there are still a lot of unknowns. We don't yet know exactly who will be in or out of the NBA Draft, we don't yet know who will transfer this summer, and there are still some blue chip 2012 recruits out there.

As the spring turns to summer and fall, I'll keep you all updated on it, and this bracket projection will change. My next BP68 will be out the week of the NBA Draft. After that I'll have a BP68 the week of Midnight Madness, and then the next one will be after the regular season begins.

Once we get into the fall the media will decide on a consensus #1 team, but in my opinion the top spot is much more open than it's usually been over the past decade. I can make an argument why every team I have as a 1 or 2 seed should be the #1 team in the nation next season. Let's see if we get a slightly clearer picture after the final NBA decisions are made, and after players like Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad sign.

For now, here's how I see things ending up:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Kentucky
2. North Carolina

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Baylor
3. Wisconsin
3. Notre Dame

4. Syracuse
4. ST. LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Michigan State
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. Marquette
5. Alabama
5. CREIGHTON (MVC)

6. Iowa State
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)
6. STANFORD (PAC-12)
6. Georgetown

7. Virginia
7. UNLV
7. Minnesota
7. Tennessee

8. Michigan
8. Miami (Fl)
8. California
8. New Mexico

9. Cincinnati
9. NC State
9. Texas
9. VCU (COLONIAL)

10. St. Mary's
10. West Virginia
10. Arkansas
10. UMass

11. BYU
11. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
11. Missouri
11. Pittsburgh

12. UCLA
12. Drexel
12. Virginia Tech
12. Temple
12. Iowa

13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. Illinois State
13. Purdue
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)

14. OHIO (MAC)
14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
15. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Maryland, La Salle, Xavier, Rutgers, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Central Florida, Akron, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Arizona, Washington, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Florida State, St. Joseph's, Providence, Seton Hall, South Florida, Villanova, Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Marshall, Valparaiso, Toledo, Wichita State, Nevada, North Dakota State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Dayton, UConn, Penn State, Texas Tech, Delaware, George Mason, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Fairfield, Drake, Evansville, Boise State, Belmont, North Texas, USC, LSU, Mississippi State, Loyola-Marymount, San Diego, Denver, Louisiana Tech

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry 28 teams better than Michigan......thats funny Thank You

Jeff said...

Glad I could amuse you.

DMoore said...

I realize that this ranking was prior to the Muhammed and Noel commitments. What did you assume/predict for Kentucky & UCLA when you made these rankings?

Jeff said...

I assumed Kentucky was going to land two more bluechippers but was going to lose every player but Wiltjer. They got one, and I'm sure they'll get one more. If they add three or four blue chippers or get some more players back from the Draft then I'll have to move them up a little bit.

I didn't have UCLA landing Muhammed, so I will have to slide them up a few spots.


I'm still somewhat in hibernation after banging out all of those previews, but sometime later this week I'll start posting regularly again and I'll start going through these big signings and draft decisions and how they affect where I'd put teams in the BP68.

ervinsm said...

Thoughts on the Mark Lyons transfer? No word as to where he goes yet, but it sounds like Arizona is in the lead. He should be eligible immediately with the grad school transfer rule so he wont have to sit out a year. As a Cincy fan, Im glad to see him gone, but I've been shocked how many XU fans are saying "addition by subtraction" and that he was a "cancer" and "divided the locker room". Idk if there's any real truth to those stories, but losing your best returning player, and someone that imo was actually more talented than Tu is pretty hard to replace when Frease, Tu, Andre, and Lyons are all leaving in one year.

Do you think he was forced out, it was mutual, or he wanted to leave and go somewhere to compete for a Final4 appearance for his senior year? Im leaning to the last one being the most likely.

Jeff said...

It's pretty typical for fans to rationalize a player transferring or a coach leaving by saying "Addition by subtraction!" and "We'll be ever better now!" so I wouldn't put much stock in that.

Maybe Lyons was a locker room cancer, but if he was then that's news to me. And certainly his play on the floor was good, and it will put even more pressure for young guys like Dez Wells to step up.

Maybe a change in culture on that team will be good after the way they reacted to that Cincy brawl, but there's going to be a huge turnover in talent and production, too.