Friday, October 19, 2012

Post-Midnight Madness BP68

I can't recall another season in recent memory that was so wide open at the top. It's not that rare to have a season without a singular dominant team (the only time we've had that in the past seven or eight years was the 2008-09 Tar Heels), but what is rare is the total lack of certainty near the top.

Let me give you one example. The Big Ten has three teams in the preseason Coaches Poll Top 5: Indiana (#1), Ohio State (#4) and Michigan (#5). But can anybody tell me that Indiana or Ohio State or Michigan's chances to win the Big Ten are significantly better than Wisconsin or Michigan State? I certainly can't.

And in the ACC? All of the media hype surrounds NC State, but I'm not buying it. Duke is my pick, though North Carolina is a contender as well. In the SEC? The media hype surrounds Kentucky, but Florida is my pick. And could a team like Memphis or Kansas move up to a 1 seed? Absolutely. The only BCS conference with a clear favorite is the Big East (Louisville).

I had Indiana #1 overall in my two previous bracket projections, but I've decided to drop them to the third 1 seed. And it's not because of their defense, although their defense will need to get a lot better from last season for them to win the Big Ten, no matter how good their offense is. No, my problem with Indiana is not statistical in nature, but a feeling from watching them last season.

Last year they could beat anybody when they were an underdog against a big opponent. They beat Kentucky, Ohio State and Michigan State (the three top teams in the end-of-season Pomeroy ratings) at home. But when they were the favorites? Particularly on the road against mid-level Big Ten opponents? They weren't the same team. They had clunkers against Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State and Minnesota. Coming from where they were two years ago, with all the hype, and the absurdly deep and hungry Big Ten conference, I'm just not that confident that they can handle the pressure. I'm still picking Indiana to win the conference, but would not be shocked at all if they finish in fourth or fifth.

I understand the argument against Louisville. As bad as Indiana's defense was last year, Louisville's offense was equally inept. But they have room to grow. I felt like Peyton Siva disappointed last season after a breakout sophomore year. He showed flashes of brilliance last season, but was also brutally inconsistent. The same can be said, of course, of Russ Smith. The Big East media picked Siva as the conference's preseason Player of the Year. If he plays at that level then Louisville really will likely be the best team in the country. And what's very important to remember is that Louisville has the least competition of any of the other top teams in their own conference. There is no clear favorite in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC (and the Pac-12 is just terrible). But Louisville is the heavy favorite in the Big East, and they are my pick as the top 1 seed... for now.

Over the next couple of weeks I'll start to preview the opening week's games. I'll tell you what I'll be watching and why. My next bracket projection will be the W-17 BP68, which will be posted on November 18th. And yes, that means 17 weeks until Selection Sunday. See you then.

1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Kentucky
2. Michigan

3. North Carolina
3. Wisconsin
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. NC State

4. Syracuse
4. Notre Dame
4. Michigan State
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

5. Baylor
5. Marquette
5. GONZAGA (WCC)
5. ST. LOUIS (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. Alabama
6. CREIGHTON (MVC)
6. Butler
6. Iowa State

7. STANFORD (PAC-12)
7. Georgetown
7. Virginia
7. UNLV

8. Tennessee
8. Miami (Fl)
8. California
8. Minnesota

9. New Mexico
9. West Virginia
9. Missouri
9. Cincinnati

10. VCU
10. Arkansas
10. St. Mary's
10. UCLA

11. Texas
11. UMass
11. BYU
11. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

12. Pittsburgh
12. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
12. Iowa
12. Illinois State
12. Temple
12. Maryland

13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. OHIO (MAC)

14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)

16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson,  Florida State, Virginia Tech, La Salle, Xavier, Rutgers, Northwestern, Purdue, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Akron, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Arizona, Washington, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
St. Joseph's, Providence, Seton Hall, South Florida, Villanova, Illinois, Marshall, Toledo, Wichita State, Nevada, North Dakota State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, Georgia, Texas A&M, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Dayton, Penn State, Texas Tech, Delaware, George Mason, Hofstra, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Fairfield, Drake, Evansville, Boise State, Belmont, North Texas, USC, LSU, Mississippi State, Loyola-Marymount, San Diego, Denver, Louisiana Tech

2 comments:

DMoore said...

Kentucky not picked to win the SEC? I eagerly await all the free entertainment when this gets linked to a Kentucky discussion board :)

Jeff said...

Haha, it can't be worse than that debacle with the Memphis fans a few years back.

Besides, it's not like I think they'll suck - I have them as a 2 seed. I'm just very high on Florida this year.