W-17 BP68

Here is my first bracket projection of the regular season. And yes, we are only 17 weeks from Selection Sunday.

Honestly, things aren't changing too much since my last preseason bracket. The top 10-15 teams are all basically the same, though I did shift a few teams up or down a spot. My biggest whiff, if we go down the bracket, was probably Virginia. I thought they'd be a clear at-large team, and right now there's just no way to project them as a Tournament team.

I know that the nature of putting together bracket projections means that it tends to inflame people who think that I hate their team. And while I think I've proven over the years that I don't have any significant personal biases, I do obviously make mistakes (see: Virginia in the previous paragraph). But since this is my first bracket of the regular season I want to emphasize to any new readers that I love debating this stuff, but only if you make a fact-based argument. If you call me names, I will not respond, and if it's nasty enough then I will delete it. Let's keep things pleasant, guys. Okay?

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Kentucky
2. Michigan

3. North Carolina
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. NC State
3. Syracuse

4. Notre Dame
4. Michigan State
4. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
4. GONZAGA (WCC)

5.Wisconsin
5. Baylor
5. Marquette
5. Alabama

6. CREIGHTON (MVC)
6. Butler
6. UNLV
6. Iowa State

7. Georgetown
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Minnesota
7. Missouri

8. UCLA (PAC 12)
8. New Mexico
8. California
8. Stanford

9. Tennessee
9. Miami (Fl)
9. St. Mary's
9. St. Louis

10. UMass
10. Cincinnati
10. Texas
10. BYU

11. Kansas State
11. Iowa
11. Maryland
11. Temple

12. Arkansas
12. Arizona
12. Pittsburgh
12. Illinois State
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)
13. OHIO (MAC)

14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)

16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson,  Florida State, Virginia, La Salle, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Rutgers, Illinois, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Akron, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Colorado State, Colorado, Ole Miss

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Virginia Tech, Richmond, Seton Hall, South Florida, Villanova, Purdue, George Mason, Marshall, Nevada, Belmont, North Dakota State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Georgia Tech, Dayton, Providence, St. John's, Penn State, Texas Tech, Delaware, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Fairfield, Toledo, Drake, Evansville, Boise State, USC, Lehigh, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Loyola-Marymount, Santa Clara, Denver, Louisiana Tech