Sunday, December 23, 2012

W-12 BP68

12 weeks to Selection Sunday. Fewer than three months. Doesn't seem that far away, does it?

Anyway, I'll save you guys the rant this week. I do think I need to explain the concept of a bracket projection at least once a year, but I got it out of my system last week. So this week? Let's just talk basketball results.

As I've said many times, my bracket is not going to overreact to small sample sizes. I'm not going to overreact to Florida's two losses, or Missouri's win. I still believe that we have eight teams a step ahead of everybody else, and those are the eight teams that I have kept as 1 or 2 seeds for quite a while now.

I did make some changes toward the tail end of the bracket. Three teams moved into the bracket this week, though only one as an at-large - Wyoming. I finally moved George Mason in as an automatic bid out of the Colonial, and also added Weber State as the new favorite in the Big Sky. To make room for those teams, Stanford, Drexel and Montana were dropped from the bracket.

Be aware that I will expand my bracket to contain the "full bubble" in four weeks. At that point I will include every team with even the tiniest chance at an at-large bid, and with each new bracket thereafter I will eliminate teams that are no longer in contention. So once I get to that point, I will be adding a bunch of teams to the bubble that aren't there now. Teams like Utah, Penn State and Texas Tech are pretty implausible at-large teams, but they could run off 12 wins in a row and get themselves on the bubble. So those are the types of teams that will get added. Again, it's four weeks away. I'm just getting you ready for it.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Michigan
2. Ohio State
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. ARIZONA (PAC 12)

4. Michigan State
4. Notre Dame
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Minnesota

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. NC State
5. Cincinnati
5. Georgetown

6. UNLV
6. Butler
6. Missouri
6. Illinois

7. Pittsburgh
7. Baylor
7. Oklahoma State
7. Wisconsin

8. North Carolina
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Wichita State
8. Kansas State

9. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
9. Marquette
9. Iowa State
9. Maryland

10. California
10. Ole Miss
10. Temple
10. New Mexico

11. St. Louis
11. Iowa
11. Alabama
11. Virginia

12. Colorado
12. St. Mary's
12. UCLA
12. Wyoming
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

13. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Saint Joseph's, Xavier, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, Illinois State, Boise State, Colorado State, Oregon, Stanford, Tennessee

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, La Salle, UMass, Seton Hall, Purdue, West Virginia, Akron, Belmont, Arkansas, Oregon State, LSU, North Dakota State, BYU

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Richmond, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, SMU, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Arizona State, Washington, Washington State, Lehigh, Texas A&M, Santa Clara, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Putting St. Joe's over La Salle is pure lunacy and doesn't speak to the legitimacy behind your projections.

Jeff said...

I suppose you can make an argument for La Salle over St. Joe's, but you can make at least as many arguments for St. Joe's. What is your factual basis for saying that putting La Salle behind St. Joe's is so absurd that it threatens the legitimacy built up over years of good brackets? Do you have some super secret information that isn't public?

Anonymous said...

yeah it's called your two eye balls. But that might be too low tech for your taste. La Salle is second best team in the city and best back-court in the city. Watch some games before you comment

Jeff said...

How can I watch basketball games? Are they on television?

Anonymous said...

They sure are if you look hard enough. You might just want to talk to St. Joe alumni who are ready to jump off the bridge right now after their Fairfield loss. Keep your eye on Duren, Galloway and Garland. Best back court in the city.