Sunday, December 16, 2012

W-13 BP68

It's Finals Week, which means that for the most part there wasn't a lot of action. Things really climaxed well on Saturday, though, with some really nice games. I'm not going to overreact to pseudo-buzzer beater losses in my bracket, but Arizona definitely moved up the bracket. They've impressed me - I underestimated them before the season.

What makes this bracket unique from other brackets you see on the internet is that this is a projection of Selection Sunday, while the other brackets are all "how things stand now". I never understood why everybody does it the latter way, for a few reasons. First, how do you judge teams that have only played one or two quality opponents? What would you do with a team like LSU that, prior to yesterday, was undefeated after beating a bunch of cupcakes? I don't see how you make a meaningful bracket without making some sort of future projection.

More importantly, I don't get why anybody cares. What fans want to know is if their team is on pace to make the NCAA Tournament, and if they're going to actually get there. I try my best to do that. If you look at the other brackets, you'll get no idea. For example, here is the Bracket Matrix. Of the 19 brackets, two have Kentucky out of the Field of 68 altogether. I'm sorry, but that's insane. Kentucky is one of the 25 best teams in the country, and has a realistic chance to be one of the ten best by the end of the season. There is zero chance that they'll miss the Tournament. That's not the only bad bracket pick, it's just the worst right now.

On Selection Sunday, the Bracket Matrix is probably your best bet for consensus brackets - the real bracket always ends up being close to that. But this early in the year? Some of those brackets are just insane. If you want to know whether your team is making the Tournament, my projected bracket is a much better shot.

Speaking of the teams making the Tournament, I had two changes to my Field of 68 this week. I moved Iowa and Colorado into the Tournament. To make room for them, St. Joseph's and Florida State were booted out.


Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. Michigan State

4. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
4. Notre Dame
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Minnesota

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. NC State
5. Georgetown
5. Cincinnati

6. UNLV
6. Butler
6. North Carolina
6. Illinois

7. Baylor
7. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
7. Marquette
7. Wisconsin

8. Pittsburgh
8. Oklahoma State
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Missouri

9. California
9. Iowa State
9. Maryland
9. Wichita State

10. Ole Miss
10. Alabama
10. Kansas State
10. Temple

11. New Mexico
11. Virginia
11. Stanford
11. St. Louis

12. St. Mary's
12. Iowa
12. UCLA
12. Colorado
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

13. OHIO (MAC)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)

14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)

15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Florida State, UMass, Saint Joseph's, Xavier, Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, Illinois State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Oregon, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, La Salle, St. John's, Seton Hall, Purdue, Oklahoma, George Mason, Akron, Boise State, Oregon State, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, North Dakota State

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Richmond, DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, SMU, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Belmont, Arizona State, Washington State, Lehigh, Santa Clara, San Francisco, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Weird Gonzaga still gets more love than Illinois and you put the illini on the same level as North Carolina and Butler. Butler controlled North Carolina for 30 mins, and then Illinois whipped Butler in a game that wasn't close. I know one game doesn't mean a team is better than another but it's a bigger sample than one game.

Jeff said...

I talked here about why Illinois is very overrated right now.

Anonymous said...

Interestingly, I did essentially the same exercise last night. While some of our seeding was wildly different (I had New Mexico as a #5), our teams in the field were very similar...I had Oregon, Xavier and Florida St in and Iowa St, Virginia and Stanford out.

Xavier and Fla St were the last 2 in for me followed by UCLA and St Mary's.

Oregon was the team I felt was more safe and you had Iowa St by the most margin of those I left out.

DMoore said...

I would agree with putting Virginia in rather than Florida State. FSU is kind of a mess right now, while Virginia has their defense playing at a very high level.