Sunday, December 09, 2012

W-14 BP68

We're beginning to head into the dead zone of the regular season, when many players spend more time taking final exams than playing games. But now that most of the quality non-conference match-ups have been played, I do think we can start to draw clear divisions in the Field of 68.

It does seem like we have eight teams that are clearly ahead of the rest of the nation. I have barely moved those teams at all from week to week, just because I haven't seen reason to. But I would be surprised if any team not in this group of 8 eventually earns a 1 seed.

As for the bottom of the bracket, I think there is more clarity this year than usual. Outside of the 12 seeds, I feel pretty good with every other team I have as an at-large bid. I did move some of those 12 seeds around, though. This week, two teams have moved into the bracket: Virginia and Saint Joseph's. To make room, two teams were removed: BYU and UMass.

I still owe you guys a few more recaps from the late night Saturday games. Look for those by Sunday afternoon at the latest.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse

3. Kentucky
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. Michigan State

4. Notre Dame
4. NC State
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. Minnesota

5. Georgetown
5. ARIZONA (PAC 12)
5. UNLV
5. BUTLER (ATLANTIC TEN)

6. North Carolina
6. VCU
6. Cincinnati
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

7. Marquette
7. Illinois
7. Baylor
7. Wisconsin

8. Alabama
8. California
8. Pittsburgh
8. Missouri

9. Iowa State
9. Maryland
9. Wichita State
9. New Mexico

10. Kansas State
10. Temple
10. St. Louis
10. Oklahoma State

11. Stanford
11. Ole Miss
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Virginia

12. Saint Joseph's
12. St. Mary's
12. UCLA
12. Florida State
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
12. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

13. OHIO (MAC)
13. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
13. HARVARD (IVY)

14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
14. UTAH STATE (WAC)
14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)

15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson,  Virginia Tech, UMass, Xavier, Iowa, Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, Illinois State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Dayton, La Salle, St. John's, Seton Hall, Purdue, Oklahoma, George Mason, Akron, Boise State, Oregon State, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Richmond, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, SMU, Southern Miss, Illinois-Chicago, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Nevada, Belmont, Arizona State, Washington State, Lehigh, Santa Clara, San Francisco, New Mexico State

2 comments:

DMoore said...

UCLA and Florida State in the bracket? Is it early for the bubble to be this weak? Aren't there some promising teams who have run up gaudy records on cupcakes and we just don't know that they're bad yet? 'Cause we already know both those teams are.

Jeff said...

Well, a little bit of that is potential. I do think both of those teams are going to play better later in the season.

As for the teams out of the Tournament, the only team I think you can make a good case for is Wyoming. But as I said to a person who asked me about them on twitter, I'm just not sure this past week is as good as Wyoming really is. Wyoming would be an at-large team if the season ended today, but there's a real risk that they just had an awesome week of basketball and they're going to return to reality next week. I need to see them do this for a bit longer before I move them into the bracket.