Sunday, December 02, 2012

W-15 BP68

This was the final weekend of the college football regular season, which means it's the transition for a lot of casual fans who haven't really been watching college basketball up to this point. Starting next week, college basketball will dominate Saturdays. And so it will be for the next four months.

Nearly every potential NCAA Tournament team has played multiple quality opponents already this season, which means we all now have a pretty good feel for these teams. More importantly, it means that the computer ratings are starting to get more accurate. Expect to see me using the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings more often from here on out, in addition to the standard advanced stats I use regularly.

In this week's bracket, the biggest change is at the bottom of the at-large field. Three teams moved into the Field of 68: Miami (Fl), Ole Miss and Wichita State. To make room for them, Illinois State, Iowa and Tennessee were dropped out.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Ohio State
2. Michigan
2. Syracuse

3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Kentucky
3. Michigan State
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

4. Notre Dame
4. NC State
4. CREIGHTON (MVC)
4. UNLV

5. North Carolina
5. BUTLER (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Minnesota
5. Georgetown

6. VCU
6. Wisconsin
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Alabama

7. Marquette
7. Baylor
7. Iowa State
7. CALIFORNIA (PAC 12)

8. New Mexico
8. Cincinnati
8. Maryland
8. Arizona

9. Missouri
9. Stanford
9. Kansas State
9. St. Louis

10. St. Mary's
10. Temple
10. Pittsburgh
10. Illinois

11. Oklahoma State
11. UCLA
11. BYU
11. Wichita State

12. Ole Miss
12. Miami (Fl)
12. UMass
12. Florida State
12. DAVIDSON (SOCON)
12. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

13. OHIO (MAC)
13. DREXEL (COLONIAL)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. UTAH STATE (WAC)

14. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
14. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)

15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)
15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)

16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson,  Virginia, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Iowa, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Illinois State, Colorado State, Colorado, Oregon, Arkansas, Tennessee

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Georgia Tech, Dayton, La Salle, St. John's, Seton Hall, Purdue, George Mason, Akron, Northern Iowa, Boise State, Wyoming, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, LSU, Texas A&M, North Dakota State, Louisiana Tech

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Charlotte, Richmond, Providence, Rutgers, South Florida, Villanova, Nebraska, Marshall, Southern Miss, Evansville, Nevada, Belmont, Arizona State, USC, Lehigh, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Santa Clara, New Mexico State

No comments: