Ben Brust And Wisconsin Stun Michigan

Wisconsin 65, #3 Michigan 62, OT
This was a really well played game even before the spectacular ending. But the ending is what all of the buzz is about, of course. Down by three, Jared Berggren had a monster dunk plus a free throw to tie the game up. Tim Hardaway had a chance to hold for the final shot, and he nailed an incredible fadeaway shot from about 25 feet with a hand in his face to apparently give Michigan the win. But Wisconsin executed a beautiful play that got Ben Brust a 40 foot runner that went in to send the game to overtime. And in overtime, it was Brust again who nailed a three to put Wisconsin ahead for good with around 40 seconds left. Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke both had chances to tie the game but missed.

There was a lot of talk about whether these teams should have fouled intentionally during the end of game opportunities, particularly since both had fouls to give. It did look like Mike Bruesewitz intentionally grabbed Hardaway just before his three but didn't get the call. And on the Brust shot, I actually think not fouling there is correct. The odds of that shot going in, even with a guy in Brust who has a ton of range, are maybe 5%. Michigan was best off playing that out. At the end of overtime, Wisconsin maybe could have fouled there, but I thought the more questionable call was having Ryan Evans and his 42.5 FT% in the game. His miss on the front end of a 1-and-1 gave Trey Burke that final chance to send the game into a second overtime.

Had Michigan won this game they'd have been the unanimous #1 in the polls on Monday. Since they lost, everybody is grudgingly deciding between Duke and Miami, even though nobody really believes either is the best team in the nation. Michigan will probably drop from #3, all because of an impossible 40 footer by Ben Brust. That is, of course, idiotic. But the polls are always ridiculous. The good news for Michigan is that they're still very much in contention for at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title. And that along with a Big Ten tournament title will be a certain 1 seed. They've got an important game coming up on Tuesday at Michigan State. A loss there would be Michigan's fourth Big Ten loss, and also would give a big win to one of the other Big Ten title contenders.

Wisconsin moves to 8-3 with this win, and could possibly be in a gigantic five-way tie for first place in the Big Ten by the end of the weekend. It's not inconceivable that the Big Ten title could end up a big tie at 13-5, and a record of 13-5 is looking increasingly plausible for Wisconsin. They'll probably be underdogs in only two of their remaining seven games. One of the two games where they'll be underdogs will come on Thursday, at Minnesota. If they lose there then a game at home against Ohio State the following Sunday will become very important if they're going to stay alive for a share of the Big Ten title.

#21 Missouri 98, Ole Miss 79
This was a bit of an ugly game. It was never competitive, for one thing, with Missouri grabbing a 23 point first half lead and never looking back. There was also a fight started by Alex Oriakhi that could have really gotten out of hand if the refs hadn't broken it up as quickly as they did. But that said, I'm sure that (other than the fight) Missouri fans enjoyed this one. They dominated in every way. They owned the glass (a 58.3 OR%), forced more steals (10) than committed turnovers (9), and hit 52.2% of their threes. It was just a romp.

I think it's pretty safe to say that this is the best Missouri has played all year. Beating VCU is a more impressive win, but it was only by three points. And this performance came at a good time, as the Tigers had really been fading in the computers over the past few weeks. While losing four of their previous eight games, their Pomeroy rating had plummeted all the way to 48th. Despite being over-ranked at 21st, they still weren't anywhere near the bubble, even before this win. The Tigers are now 6-4 in the SEC and 6-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should move close to 25th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. If they can get to 11-7 in SEC play then that will lock up an at-large bid.

Ole Miss is now 7-3 in SEC play, with a 1-3 record against Kentucky, Florida and Missouri (i.e. the only other SEC teams in the RPI Top 50). They won't play any of those teams in the rest of the regular season. In other words, Ole Miss is likely going to finish 13-5 or 14-4 in SEC play, despite winning one game all season against the RPI Top 50. Ole Miss has lucked out with a soft schedule (even by SEC standards), and they are going to end up with a really fraudulent won-loss record. But the Selection Committee will not be fooled. As I've said many times, when all else is equal the Selection Committee will prefer a team with big wins and bad losses to a team with neither. Teams with gaudy records against cupcakes tend to be disappointed with their seed. And that's how it should be. College football rewards teams for scheduling weaker opponents, and so the sport ends up with only a handful of quality non-conference games all season long. College basketball rewards harder schedules, and so we have a much better non-conference slate.

Ole Miss is not at serious risk of falling on the bubble. But it's nothing but potential bad losses from here until the SEC tournament. They need to avoid stepping on too many land mines. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at Texas A&M. Missouri will play at Mississippi State on Wednesday.

#8 Miami 87, North Carolina 61
It's not surprising that Miami won this game, of course. They're the better team, they're playing better at the moment, an they were at home. But this game was a joke. With close to 8 minutes in the game, Shane Larkin tossed a ball off the backboard for a Kenny Kadji slam dunk, and it was all fun and games. This one was not competitive at all. And this has become a recurring theme for North Carolina of late. This is the third time this season they've been run off the court by 18 or more points, and you can honestly include a fourth game in there by lumping in the Butler game, where they were down by 29 points in the second half but made the final score more respectable by making a late run. This is the sixth time since January 2010 that North Carolina has lost a game by 20+ points.

For a "blue blood" program that can recruit basically anybody it wants, the number of times that Roy Williams has had his teams just quit on him is increasingly worrying. His job's not in danger, but his team is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the past eight seasons. The Tar Heels are 6-4 in ACC play, with wins over UNLV and Maryland to go with a bad loss to Texas. They are 1-5 against the RPI Top 50 and 3-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is likely going to drop out of the Top 30. The Tar Heels have a tough week coming up, with a road game at Duke on Wednesday followed by a home game against Virginia next Saturday. If they end up 9-9 or 10-8 in ACC play, they're going to enter the ACC tournament with work left to do to avoid the NIT.

For much of this season I was calling Miami one of the most underrated teams in the nation. But now in the midst of an 11 game winning streak, they're suddenly getting hype as a potential #1 team in the country in the polls on Monday. And at this point, I do need to pour a little bit of cold water on that. Yes, they're playing very well. Their defense is excellent, and their offense is clean and efficient, but you can say the same thing about almost a dozen other teams. The biggest reason for the big Miami win streak is that the ACC is down. They have only played four of those 11 games against teams in the Pomeroy Top 50, and only one against a team higher than 30th. If they played in the Big Ten they'd have picked up at least a couple of losses in the past few weeks, and nobody would be considering them for #1.

Miami is, in my view, a borderline Top Ten team. That means that they're a legitimate Final Four contender with the right draw, but they're a step below the likes of Florida, Indiana and Michigan. The Hurricanes will try to stretch their winning streak to 12 games on Wednesday, on the road at Florida State.