Illinois Stuns Indiana Late

Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72
Indiana jumped out to a big lead early in this one. They opened up a 14 point first half lead, and still led by ten with just over four minutes to go in the game. But Illinois couldn't miss in those final 4+ minutes, hitting 5-for-7 from the field, with one of those two misses being a blocked shot. Indiana went cold, and a 13-3 run tied up the game with Indiana apparently getting a chance to hold for the final shot before overtime. They didn't get that shot because Victor Oladipo turned the ball over, but he then chased DJ Richardson down the floor and blocked the ball out of bounds with under a second to go. But on the final play of the game, Tyler Giffey somehow got completely lost and found himself wide open under the basket for the out of the bounds pass and game-winning layup. And it was pandemonium at the other Assembly Hall.

The reality is that as shocking as the late Illinois run was, it shouldn't have been that shocking that Illinois made a game of this one. While I was beating the drum repeatedly early in the season that Illinois was way overrated as a team ranked 10th in the nation, I've been beating the drum for a little while now that Illinois is underrated due to their bad Big Ten record. The reality is that the Big Ten is ridiculously deep with good teams, and each of these teams would have a significantly better conference record if they were playing somewhere like the Pac-12 or ACC. So Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois are all underrated in the polls, which treat all wins and losses basically equally and do not seem to really consider the strength of the Big Ten.

The fact is that Illinois is more than good enough to earn an at-large bid. The problem is that they came into this game 2-7, knowing that it's almost impossible for a team to earn an at-large bid at 7-11 or worse in conference play, no matter how good the conference is. With Indiana coming to their building, this was the perfect (and perhaps final) chance for Illinois to get some bubble buzz. They still need to win at least five of their final eight games, which is still unlikely, but it's a lot more plausible than it was a few hours ago. Their next game will be on the road at Minnesota on Sunday.

This loss drops Indiana into a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten at 8-2, with Michigan and Michigan State. Considering the strength of the league, it's pretty likely that any team that gets to 14-4 will earn at least a share of the regular season title. The Hoosiers do have a really brutal remaining schedule, though, even by Big Ten standards. Among other tough games, they'll be on the road at Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan State - four of the top 15 teams in the nation according to Pomeroy. That's awful. The road game at Ohio State is up next, on Sunday.

Wisconsin 74, Iowa 70, 2OT
This game happened last night and was just brutally physical and ugly. Both teams shot 33.8% from the field, including under 30% behind the arc. Iowa had their chances, including a nicely designed final play of regulation for Josh Oglesby. The difference in the game, if there was one, was probably Jared Berggren, who dominated the paint with 16 points, 14 rebounds (including 8 on offense) and 7 blocks. That's a full game. Iowa had some nice balance in this game, with five players scoring a combined 31 points off the bench.

There's something about playing Wisconsin that brings out the best in Iowa. A win here would have been their fourth straight over the Badgers. But this game ended up in a loss, and Iowa finds themselves in not much of a better situation than Illinois. If Iowa misses the NCAA Tournament they'll probably be the best team left out (they are currently 33rd in Pomeroy and 36th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR), but they are only 3-7 in conference play. And like Illinois, they really need to get to 8-10 to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. Unlike Illinois, Iowa has a relatively soft (by Big Ten standards) remaining schedule. They get two games against Nebraska, as well as home games against Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois, and a road game at Penn State. So both Sagarin and Pomeroy project Iowa to win five of their final eight games to reach 8-10, but their margin of error is still razor thin. The Northwestern game is up next, on Saturday.

Wisconsin moves to 7-3 in Big Ten play, which only puts them one game out of first place, though I still don't think they have a plausible shot at the Big Ten title. I think some team will find a way to get to 14-4, and it's pretty unlikely that Wisconsin will go 7-1 in their final eight games. But this win should put to bed any chances of them falling to the bubble, and they can now concern themselves with NCAA Tournament seed only. I've had them as a 5 or 6 seed basically all season (remember that for much of the season many people were projecting them to be an NIT team... but that's why you read this blog, right?), and I still think that's where they're going to end up. They certainly could move up to a 4 or even a 3 seed if they finish strong, though. Their next game is a big opportunity at home against Michigan, on Saturday.

Fresno State 64, UNLV 55
One final game last night was another bizarre upset. UNLV just didn't come to play. Against an atrocious rebounding team in Fresno State, UNLV barely won the rebounding battle (11 offensive rebounds vs 9 for the Bulldogs), and they committed 5 more turnovers. It was Fresno State's Kevin Olekaibe who led all scorers with 21, while UNLV star Anthony Bennett was a brutal 5-for-16 from the field. If Fresno State hadn't dropped 11 points at the free throw line (only 19-for-30 for the game) the final margin would have been even worse.

The Mountain West is an impossible conference to figure out. The top four teams seem relatively interchangeable in terms of quality (although obviously they play quite different styles of basketball). The problem is that somebody has to win every game and somebody else has to lose, and some team is going to end up unnecessarily close to the bubble just because they lost too many games. And right now, that looks to be UNLV. With two straight losses they have slid to 4-4 in conference play, with a 6-5 record against the RPI Top 100 and now this bad RPI 100+ loss to Fresno State. If the season ended now they'd still be a Tournament team, but they probably need to get to 9-7 to stay there. Their next game will be on Saturday, against New Mexico.

Fresno State is actually a halfway decent team. They're 132nd in Pomeroy and 144th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. But in a really good Mountain West that puts them, even after this win, only 2-6 in conference play. They will attempt to continue playing spoiler on Saturday, at San Diego State.