Indiana And Florida Both Tumble

Minnesota 77, #1 Indiana 73
Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten, and Indiana is a perimeter oriented team, but it was still shocking to see how badly Indiana was destroyed in the paint. The Gophers had a 50.0 OR%, and also hit 53% of their two-point attempts. For a while there Minnesota's offense consisted of launching terrible three-pointers just to get the offensive rebounds and put-backs. And on the other end of the floor, they took Cody Zeller out of the game, holding him to only 9 shots attempts (9 points, 7 rebounds). The Hoosiers have several good outside shooters, and the Gophers are a team that defend the three-point line poorly, but they need to get Zeller more involved in the offense.

This win should put to rest any bubble concerns for Minnesota. The Gophers have the #1 strength of schedule in the nation, and so despite the 6-8 Big Ten record they only needed a 2-2 finish to lock up an at-large bid. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was 25th even before this win. They'll have no problem getting one more win (Saturday's home game against Penn State should do it), and at that point will just be playing for Tournament seed.

The good news for Indiana is that I don't think this loss will impact them too much. They are still a solid favorite to win the Big Ten regular season title, though Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin all have a realistic chance of earning a share now. Indiana is also still very likely to earn a 1 seed in March. A share of the Big Ten regular season title and a trip to the Big Ten tournament title game should be enough to lock that up. They'll face Iowa on Saturday and then Ohio State next Tuesday.

Tennessee 64, #8 Florida 58
Florida was short-handed here, without either Will Yeguette or Michael Frazier, leaving them with what was effectively a six man rotation. On top of that, Kenny Boynton (1-for-7 from the field) and Mike Rosario (5-for-14 from the field) both played poorly, particularly down the stretch. The Vols were getting all of the loose balls, and the Gators just seemed to not care as much. To be fair, it's got to be hard to maintain your motivation when there is no serious competition in conference play.

That Gators will remain #1 in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR when the new numbers come out tomorrow. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're the best team in the country - you can make a good case for Indiana - but it means that if they do fall to a 2 seed then it's going to be a tough break for whichever team gets the 1 seed in their bracket. The Gators could very realistically get punished from the Selection Sunday for their conference being so poor. They are only 5-3 against the RPI Top 50 this season. But that said, some of the other top teams will end up falling during their conference tournaments, and I do still think Florida will earn a 1 seed as long as they win the SEC tournament. They do suddenly have a relatively important game on Saturday against Alabama. The Tide would move into a tie for first place in the SEC if they somehow pull the upset.

With this win, the Vols move to 17-10 overall and 9-6 in SEC play, with wins over Wichita State, Kentucky and now Florida, along with bad losses to Georgia and Arkansas. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is going to move into the 40-45 range, and they're definitely a bubble team now. They do need to win at least two of their final three regular season games, and then will need to win a game or two in the SEC tournament. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Georgia.

Xavier 64, #19 Memphis 62
The talk after this game was that Memphis showed a lack of effort and just got outworked. They did get outworked on the glass (Xavier had a 40.0 OR% compared to a 24.2 OR% for Memphis), but in general I don't think we need a big narrative here. Memphis had won 18 straight games... they were eventually going to lose a game. That 18 game winning streak was awfully soft, as was that #19 next to their team name.

The polls move teams up through inertia for winning, but Conference USA is awful this season. Memphis has two RPI Top 50 wins all season, and both of them came against Southern Miss. Arguably, the best win Memphis has had all season came against Tennessee. As Ken Pomeroy pointed out on twitter, Memphis actually dropped in his ratings from 35th to 37th throughout that 18 game winning streak. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was 24th before this game, but with this loss will drop them a lot closer to the 35-40 range that will get them in the bubble conversation. The Selection Committee tends not to like teams that don't have any big wins.

The Tigers have two key games up next, on the road at UCF on Saturday and at UTEP next Tuesday. Neither of those games will be easy, and a loss in either game will likely drop Memphis to the bubble. If Memphis can navigate these final three regular season games and gets to the Conference USA tournament final, then that probably will be sufficient to lock up an at-large bid.

Xavier is 16-11 overall and 8-5 in the Atlantic Ten. They have an impressive 4-2 record against the RPI Top 50, but only 4-6 against the RPI Top 100, with five RPI 100+ losses. They'd have to win all three of their remaining regular season games to even get into the bubble conversation. With a strong finish, they still have a chance at a top four finish in the Atlantic Ten, which would get them a bye to the A-10 tournament quarterfinals. Their next game will be on Saturday, against UMass.