Is Creighton A Bubble Team?

Northern Iowa 61, Creighton 54
At some point a fluke turns into a trend. And Creighton's shooting, which had carried them all season, has now abandoned them in three straight games. Creighton led the nation in 2P% and 3P% for most of the season (though that's no longer the case after this shooting slump), but they are now 1-5 when they have an eFG% under 52% (compared to being 19-1 when having an eFG% over 52%).

Doug McDermott actually shot fine here (6-for-10 from the field, 2-for-4 behind the arc), but the rest of the team was just a little bit off (30% behind the arc as a team). And certainly Creighton is a better shooting team than they've been in this slump. It's not just McDermott - guys like Ethan Wragge and Grant Gibbs (a combined 2-for-9 behind the arc here) are good shooters. They're just in a slump. But this is why it's generally a bad idea to count on sustained success from teams that are so dependent on outside shooting. Every team misses shots from time to time, and you need to be able to win games when the shots aren't falling. Creighton is simply not beating a quality team if they're not having at least a halfway decent shooting night.

Creighton has spent almost the entire season ranked in the Top 15 in the nation (only two Coaches Polls this entire season have had Creighton outside the Top 15), but at this point they're a bubble team. Creighton is now 20-6 overall, with only one really big win (Wisconsin) to go with several iffy losses (Illinois State, Northern Iowa and Drake). They are only 1-2 against the RPI Top 50, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is going to plummet to around 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They'd still be a Tournament team if the season ended now, but only barely. Unless Creighton wins their Bracketbusters game at St. Mary's, they need to sweep their final four conference games or they're going to enter Arch Madness needing to win at least one game. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Evansville.

Northern Iowa is now 8-6 in Missouri Valley play, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will move inside the Top 70. They're a respectable 3-5 against the RPI Top 50, though only 10-11 against the RPI Top 200. So in despite the strong computer numbers, they basically need to win every remaining regular season game to have a shot at an at-large bid. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Drake.

Texas 89, Iowa State 86, 2OT
This was Myck Kabongo's return from suspension, and interestingly enough he wasn't on the floor when this game was decided. Kabongo had a strong game (13 points and 7 assists), but he fouled out in the first overtime. Sheldon McClellan filled in ably in the second overtime, though, scoring all all ten Texas points (he only scored 8 total points prior to that second overtime). And in the final 45 seconds of this game, Iowa State missed three shots and committed a pair of turnovers. They'll feel that this was a missed opportunity.

In some sense, this was an unfair game for Iowa State. This is a bad loss because Texas has played poorly this year, but a big reason that they have played poorly is because they have been without Myck Kabongo. This isn't as bad of a loss as it seems. Iowa State got a really nice game from Melvin Ejim (20 points and 16 rebounds) and Will Clyburn (20 points).

Iowa State is the prototypical bubble team. They are now 16-8 overall and 6-5 in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State and BYU to go with bad losses to Texas Tech and Texas. They are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should be just inside the Top 50 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. If the season ended now they'd be one of the two or three last teams in or first teams out of the NCAA Tournament. To be in a better position on the bubble they need to get to at least 11-7 in conference play. At 10-6 or 9-7 they're going to have a bunch of work to do in the Big 12 tournament. Their next game will be on Saturday against TCU.

Texas has been to 14 straight NCAA Tournaments, which ties them with Wisconsin and Gonzaga for the fifth longest active streak. Is it possible that Myck Kabongo could somehow allow them to stretch that streak to 15? It's not impossible, but their odds of winning the Big 12 tournament outright are better than their odds of getting an at-large bid. Even after this big win, Texas is only 3-8 in Big 12 play and 11-13 overall, with a 2-11 record against the RPI Top 100. They'd probably have to win every remaining regular season game to get back on the bubble. So what matters more for Texas now is improving their Big 12 tournament seed, and improving their quality of play in the hopes of a miracle run to the Big 12's auto bid. Their next game will be on Saturday, on the road at Kansas.h

Air Force 71, UNLV 56
The road has not been a friendly  place for UNLV. This loss drops them to 1-5 on the road in Mountain West play (compared to 4-0 at home). This game was never close either. Air Force led by as many as 17 points in the first half, and by as many as 24 in the second half. The final time that UNLV was within single digits, there were more than five minutes left in the first half.

What stood out more than anything in this game was the rebounding. Air Force is a terrible rebounding team - they are dead last in the Mountain West (and 341st in the nation) in offensive rebounding percentage, and second worst in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding percentage. Yet they pulled down 10 offensive rebounds here (a 38.5 OR%) compared to 7 (a 25.9 OR%) for UNLV. Not only was that Air Force's best offensive rebounding performance in conference play, but it's only the second time in conference play all season that they've out-rebounded their opponent. It's also only the second time that they've rebounded more than 22% of their misses against a conference foe all season long. Just a putrid performance from UNLV.

UNLV is fading ever closer to the bubble. They are only 5-5 in conference play, with a 7-6 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will be close to 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. I think they need to get to 9-7 in conference play to feel comfortable about their at-large chances. They can earn an at-large bid at 8-8 in conference play, but they'll have to win a game or two in the Mountain West tournament. They have a pair of massive home games coming up over the next week, against San Diego State on Saturday and against Colorado State next Wednesday.

As UNLV fades to fifth place in the Mountain West standings, and as Wyoming fades out of the bubble picture altogether, it's Air Force that has moved into fourth place. They are now 6-4 in conference play, with wins over San Diego State and UNLV to go with bad losses to Nevada and Richmond. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is still not in the Top 75, though, and they're only 6-8 against the RPI Top 200. So they're still an NIT team at the moment. Air Force needs to get to at least 10-6 in conference play to have a good shot at an at-large bid. They have an important home game against Colorado State on Saturday. It'll be awfully hard for them to get to 10-6 if they lose on Saturday.