Monday, February 11, 2013

Kansas Bounces Back, Crushes Kansas State

#14 Kansas 83, #10 Kansas State 62
There has been a lot of talk about Kansas "reeling" and "falling apart" during this three game losing streak. But to me, that's absurd. All losses (and all wins) are not equal. Yes, that TCU game was a catastrophe, but it was just one game. Close losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are not good results, but they're not terrible either. I'd take either of those performances over Duke's horrible one point win over Boston College, for example. I figured Kansas would bounce back and annihilate Kansas State here, which they did. This game was never close. The Jayhawks led by as many as 21 in the first half, and never led by fewer than 15 the rest of the way.

Elijah Johnson is still not out of his offensive funk (1-for-6 from the field with 3 assists and 4 turnovers here), but Ben McLemore took over most of the load. McLemore scored 30 points on 9-for-13 shooting. Jeff Withey was a monster inside, scoring 17 points with 10 rebounds and 5 blocks. Kansas State struggled to score in the paint all night, hitting only six baskets there.

This three game losing streak has turned the Big 12, shockingly, into a competitive title race. I still think Kansas is the solid favorite, though. They've got a key road game next week at Oklahoma State. Before then they'll have to navigate a potentially tricky game on Saturday against a Texas team that will have Myck Kabongo back.

Kansas State drops to 8-3 in Big 12 play with this loss, but they are still 6-5 against the RPI Top 100, without a single RPI 50+ loss. They certainly seem safe for an at-large bid, despite being way overrated at #10 in the polls. They remain in the Big 12 title race, and have a key game coming up on Saturday against Baylor.

California 77, #7 Arizona 69
When California switched to a zone in this game, Arizona looked like they'd never seen one before. Arizona did get hot behind the arc (they hit 50% of their threes), but they settled for far too many jumpers, and the hot three-point shooting simply kept the game closer than it should have been. The Wildcats hit only 34.2% of their two-pointers, compared to 63.2% for California. Allen Crabbe was superb, scoring 31 points on 12-for-15 shooting, including a key jump shot in the corner to put California up by four points with under two minutes to go. After Cal got the ball back, Arizona chose not to foul, and Justin Cobbs (21 points and 4 assists) attacked the basket and scored the dagger.

There's no question that Arizona was impressive in non-conference play. They obviously got lucky in beating Florida and Colorado, but even being in the game in the final minute against Florida is extremely impressive, and they also wiped the floor with Miami. But in conference play, Arizona has just been... decent. Right now they are outscoring opponents by 0.08 PPP in conference play. For comparison, Stanford is outscoring opponents by 0.07 PPP, UCLA is at +0.05 PPP and Arizona State is at +0.04 PPP. Arizona is the best team in the Pac-12... but not by a whole lot.

At 8-3, Arizona is in a three-way tie for first place in the Pac-12, with a relatively difficult remaining schedule. And of course, they will not have the tiebreak over Oregon. They've got a key game coming up on Thursday, at Colorado. With a win there, they could regain control of their own destiny (since Oregon has fallen apart the past two weeks). After that they have a road game at Utah, on Sunday.

It seems like the majority of the Pac-12 is on the bubble, and California joins the party with this win. They are now 14-9 overall and 6-5 in conference play, with wins over Oregon and Arizona to go with bad losses to Harvard and Washington. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is up to 51st, though they are only 2-9 against the RPI Top 100. That Top 100 record has to be improved if they're going to earn an at-large bid. They'll probably need to get to 11-7 in conference play with at least one win in the Pac-12 tournament. This week they'll be home to face the two Los Angeles schools, starting with UCLA on Thursday.

#15 Georgetown 63, #18 Marquette 55
JTIII has been known for offense at Georgetown. He's had a series of superb scorers, and his quasi-Princeton system has always created a lot of easy baskets. But this year, that just hasn't been the case. Right now they are rated 102nd in Pomeroy adjusted offensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, they have never been rated worse than 45th in any of JTIII's previous eight seasons. But they have reinvented themselves as a defensive force. They are allowing only 0.91 PPP in Big East play. To put that in perspective only Louisville has been better.

Only five teams all season have scored more than 0.95 PPP against Georgetown, and all but one of those teams did so by shooting 44% or better behind the arc. The Hoyas simply do not allow teams to score near the basket. Marquette, unfortunately, is the single worst three-point shooting team in the Big East (26.9% in conference play). They never really had a chance here. They actually shot slightly better than their season average behind the arc (30.8%), but only scored 0.83 PPP. The only Big East team to hold Marquette to a worse offensive efficiency this season? That would, again, be Louisville.

Now 8-3, Georgetown has somehow gotten themselves involved in the Big East regular season title race. With a tough remaining schedule I don't think they will do it, but with a home-and-home against Syracuse they certainly control their own destiny. Their next game will be on Friday, on the road at Cincinnati.

Marquette is also 8-3 in Big East play, and they have a relatively soft remaining schedule, though I'd put their odds of winning the conference even lower than Georgetown. I just think that Marquette is overrated. Also, despite home games remaining with Pittsburgh and Syracuse (their two big opportunities to make a run at a title), I just don't think they match up well with either team. Marquette wants to run, and they want to be able to get easy shots in the paint. Both Pitt and Syracuse will likely eliminate those easy shots and control tempo. There's a reason why Marquette has struggled so badly this season against elite defenses like Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Florida (0.89 PPP in seven games against those teams). Marquette will get a chance to prove me wrong on Saturday, when they'll play Pittsburgh again.

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