Saturday, February 09, 2013

Kansas Loses Their Third Straight

Oklahoma 72, #5 Kansas 66
When Kansas won at Kansas State a couple of weeks ago, I thought the Big 12 title race was over. Kansas was the best team in the conference by far, and had opened up a solid lead in the standings. Even after that loss to Oklahoma State, I didn't think Kansas would seriously be tested. After all, it's almost impossible for anybody to go 18-0 in a modern major conference (even Florida, the best team in the nation, lost a game in the putrid SEC), and Oklahoma State is arguably the second best team in the conference and was at home. No big deal. But then came that shocking loss to TCU, and now this, and suddenly Kansas has a three game losing streak and is reeling.

The blame for this slide has been placed by the media on the offense - particularly backcourt play. And certainly their offensive performance against TCU sucked. Elijah Johnson, in particular, has struggled (9-for-37 shooting, 11 assists and 10 turnovers during this three game losing streak). But the reality is that Kansas had a combined 1.04 PPP in the losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. It's not great, but it's not cause for total panic. The bigger concern, in my opinion, is defense. Kansas has only allowed six opponents to score greater than 0.91 PPP this season, but three of those six came during this losing streak. The 1.14 PPP they allowed against Oklahoma State was, by far, a season worst. And here, they allowed Oklahoma to slice and dice their defense for 50.0% two-point shooting. To put that in perspective, Oklahoma was only averaging 46.7% two-point shooting this season, and Kansas entered this three-game losing streak on pace to be the first team in more than a decade to hold opponents under 38% two-point shooting for a season.

How much do we panic about Kansas? Not too much yet, I don't think. I still think the Jayhawks are the B 12 favorites... at least if they can take care of Kansas State on Monday. But even with a win there, they have seriously harmed their chances of a 1 seed in March. Florida seems like a near lock for a 1 seed, and the Big Ten is increasingly looking on pace for a pair of 1 seeds. Kansas will have a lot of competition for that fourth 1 seed, should it come to that.

This is a massive win for Oklahoma's at-large hopes. This win moves them to 15-7 overall and 6-4 in the Big 12, with wins over Baylor, Oklahoma State and now Kansas, along with iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. They entered this game outside the Top 50 of both the Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will move up close to 30th with this win. If they can get to 11-7 in Big 12 play, that should basically lock up an at-large bid. They'll need to avoid losing focus on a Monday game against TCU before an important road game next Saturday at Oklahoma State.

#13 Kansas State 79, Iowa State 70
While Kansas State did hit 50% of their three-pointers here, the difference in this game was the fact that Kansas State was attacking the basket while Iowa State wasn't. Kansas State took 28 shots in the paint, compared to Iowa State's 20. The Cyclones actually took the majority of their shots (27) behind the arc. Kansas State used their aggressiveness to earn 22 free throws, compared to 7 for Iowa State. Rodney McGruder was the star on both ends of the floor, scoring 22 points with 5 assists and 4 steals. Iowa State got some hot outside shooting from Korie Lucious, Tyrus McGee and Chris Babb (a combined 10-for-18 behind the arc), but not much else.

Kansas State moves to 8-2 in Big 12 play with this win, which for the time being actually puts them in the lead in the standings. They have a very tough remaining schedule, which should cost them a share of the Big 12 regular season title, but if nothing else they have firmed up their spot in the NCAA Tournament. They are now 19-4 overall and 5-4 against the RPI Top 50. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should actually slide into the Top 20.

Like I said, Kansas State has a tough remaining schedule, beginning with Monday night's game at Kansas. They also have road games at Baylor and Oklahoma State remaining, among other difficult games.

Iowa State continues to teeter on the Tournament bubble. They are 16-7 overall and 6-4 in conference play, with wins over Baylor, Kansas State and BYU, along with a bad loss to Texas Tech. The Cyclones are 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be inside the Top 40. If the season ended now they'd be in the NCAA Tournament, but they need to get to at least 10-8 in conference play to stay there. If they get to 11-7 then they'll be pretty safe. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at Texas. Considering that will be Myck Kabongo's comeback game, Iowa State should be very much on upset alert.

Memphis 89, Southern Miss 76
Memphis shot the lights out early in this game. They hit 7-for-11 behind the arc, finishing the half with a 77.6 eFG%. They only hit two more three-pointers the rest of the game, though, and Southern Miss was able to make the game fairly competitive in the second half. Memphis continues to really be the same it's been throughout the Josh Pastner era. They have some great athletes that can get to the rim at will (Geron Johnson was the standout here, finishing with 25 points and 7 assists). But at the same time, their help defense is consistently poor, as is their defensive rebounding. They always look like a team that never practices.

Memphis is now 20-3 overall and 9-0 in Conference USA play, which has a lot of Memphis fans feeling like they're being disrespected by not being in the Top 25. The reality, though, is that their conference stinks and their overall strength of schedule is poor. This was their first victory all season long against the Pomeroy Top 60 or the RPI Top 75. Their RPI is 30th, which isn't much higher than their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be tomorrow, though I'd still expect their Pomeroy rating to still be outside the Top 40. This win does firm up Memphis as the Conference USA favorite, and also strengthens their at-large resume, should they need to use it. They're increasingly looking like a 7-10 seed in the NCAA Tournament that might win a game, but isn't going to make too much of a run.

Southern Miss has more of an uphill battle to the Tournament. They are 18-6 overall, but a brutal 0-6 against the RPI Top 100. This was their best chance for a quality victory. Now they'll need to win at Memphis on February 23rd, or it's going to be awfully hard for them to earn an at-large bid, no matter how shiny their won-loss record is.

Memphis will play UCF on Wednesday. Southern Miss will also play on Wednesday, against Tulane.

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