Louisville Crushes Marquette

Like everybody else in the United States, I spent yesterday evening at a Super Bowl party. So... no blogging. But I did find time to watch a few college basketball games before heading out. So it's a day late, but here are my thoughts on three of the games:

#12 Louisville 70, #25 Marquette 51
Louisville finally pulled out of a three game losing streak by beating Pitt. And they made it two straight wins by easily dispatching Marquette here. The win wasn't too far from the Vegas line (10.5 points), but it felt like Louisville could have won by more if they wanted to. They were up by as much as 14 in the first half, and grabbed a 23 point lead early in the second half, before dropping their effort level and cruising to the finish.

Marquette was overwhelmed by the Louisville defense and aggressiveness, committing 17 turnovers, finishing with only a 38.7 eFG%, and allowing the Cardinals a 54.2 eFG%. Gorgui Dieng (8 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks) was the best big man on the floor, while "good" Russ Smith showed up (18 points, 3 assists and only 1 turnover). For Marquette, they continue to be led by the ever-improving Vander Blue (17 points on 8-for-16 shooting), but their big men were eaten alive by Dieng and Chane Behanan (Davante Gardner and Chris Otule combined for 8 points, 6 rebounds and 7 turnovers).

Marquette had been leading the Big East standings before this loss, though we always knew that was a temporary spot. They're clearly a step below Louisville, Syracuse and Pittsburgh in terms of team quality. At the end of the day on Sunday, there were eight teams in the Big East with six wins, so things are pretty wide open. Louisville is still in contention, but only if they can win a game at the Carrier Dome on March 2nd.

Louisville will be on the road this week, playing at Rutgers on Wednesday and Notre Dame on Saturday. Marquette has a relatively soft week, playing at South Florida on Wednesday and at home against DePaul on Saturday.

#23 Minnesota 62, Iowa 59
The last few minutes of this game were a debacle for Iowa. Minnesota played poorly in the final few minutes, but not nearly as poorly as the Hawkeyes, who completely gave away a game that could matter a whole lot on Selection Sunday. Iowa led for almost the entire second half, but failed to score on their final four possessions, including a pair of terrible turnovers. Austin Hollins hit a clutch three-pointer to put Minnesota ahead with 11.6 seconds to go - their first lead since there were more than 13 minutes left in the game. Mike Gesell actually got a good attempt at a three-pointer at the buzzer to try to salvage overtime, but missed.

This game could end up meaning a lot for Iowa because they're basically in the same situation that Illinois is (see the next game recap for my thoughts about Illinois). Iowa, like Illinois, is definitely good enough for an at-large bid. Iowa is currently 36th in Pomeroy and 38th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. It's almost a certainly that Iowa will end the season better than some teams that earn at-large bids. But of course, the same can be said about Illinois. The problem is that no matter how good a team is, and no matter how good the Big Ten is, it's almost impossible for a team to earn an at-large bid if they are four or more games below .500 in conference play. Iowa, and Illinois, must get to at least 8-10 in conference play to earn an at-large bid.

And that's where this loss matters. Yes, a road win over a Top 25 team would have been nice, but what I'm saying really wouldn't have been any different if Iowa had lost this game to Penn State. They need wins, plain and simple. Right now they a 3-6 in Big Ten play, with a road game at Wisconsin looming on Wednesday. They also have a road game at Indiana later this season. Unless they pull a big upset in one of those two games, they'll need to win at least five of their other seven Big Ten games. It's a relatively soft schedule (by Big Ten standards), but no game is an easy game in the Big Ten this season. Iowa has certainly dug themselves a significant hole.

As ugly as this win was, Minnesota appears to have pulled itself out of that bad slide that cost them a four game losing streak. They are back to 5-4 in Big Ten play with a road game at Michigan State on Wednesday followed by a home game against Illinois on Sunday. The four game losing streak has ended any hopes of a top two finish in the Big Ten, but they still could plausibly finish as high as fourth.

Wisconsin 74, Illinois 68
This game didn't really feel as close as the final score. It never seemed like Illinois had a real chance to win. Wisconsin grabbed the lead for good with 5:37 to go in the first half, and led by double digits for much of the second half. But they dragged this game out with fouling late - in the final two minutes of the game, Illinois outscored Wisconsin 16-11.

The star for Wisconsin was Frank Kaminsky off the bench. With Wisconsin struggling with foul trouble, Kaminsky (finally fully healthy after that bad eye injury against Indiana) poured in 19 points and played some nice defense. Kaminsky's 12-for-14 at the free throw line was also a sight for sore eyes as the Badgers free throw shooting has been a mess this season (61.5% as a team). For Illinois, the best player was Joseph Bertrand, who scored 17 points on 8-for-12 shooting. Bertrand's efficiency and his ability to pick his shots is a marked contrast to gunners like DJ Richardson and Branden Paul. Illinois has been struggling badly to score in conference play (only 0.97 PPP), and it's because teams are taking advantage of the Illini's offensive impatience.

As I talked about in the Iowa/Minnesota recap, Illinois is a team that just needs wins. They certainly are good enough to be an at-large bid - they are currently 56th in Pomeroy and 54th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. If they're still there on Selection Sunday they'll be rated better than at least one or two teams that earn at-large bid. But as I said earlier, Illinois really cannot earn an at-large bid unless they get to 8-10 in conference play, and this loss dumps them to 2-7 with road games still remaining at Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio State, as well as a game against Indiana. It's a significantly uphill battle for Illinois. And at this point, I don't think they can get there.

The Illini will play Indiana on Thursday, and if they're going to make a run at an at-large bid, it really needs to begin there. Wisconsin's next game will be at home, on Wednesday against Iowa. On Saturday they'll take on Michigan.