Saturday, February 23, 2013

New Mexico Beats Colorado State, Grabs Control Of Mountain West

#16 New Mexico 91, #22 Colorado State 82
This was the game that Colorado State really had to have to win a share of the Mountain West title, with New Mexico coming into Fort Collins. With this result, New Mexico now moves a full two games clear of Colorado State, with the tiebreak, and with only four games left. Barring a really crazy turn of events, New Mexico will win the Mountain West regular season title. And the thing is, if you take out Kendall Williams from this game, Colorado State was far and away the better team. Colorado State got back to their glass-dominating ways (their last game, against UNLV, was the first time all season that they'd been outrebounded), and they were more effective at scoring in the paint. Colton Iverson had a monster 26 points with 10 offensive rebounds, while Wes Elkmeier and Dorian Green both scored 20+ as well. And Pierce Hornung did Pierce Hornung things, scoring only 2 points but bringing down 7 offensive rebounds.

But that is where Kendall Williams came in. In three seasons at New Mexico, Williams has never scored more than 24 points or hit more than 5 three-pointers in a game. But here? He was 10-for-13 behind the arc and finished with 46 points. The ball practically spewed flames as his shots went toward the basket, like some old NBA Jam character. Colorado State contested most of his shots... there was just nothing they could do.

Having more or less wrapped up the Mountain West regular season title, the question is how high New Mexico's seed can climb. They are 15-4 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is 3rd, but that's a bit ridiculous. Their Sagarin ELO-SCORE was 27th entering today, and should move into the Top 25 after this win. Certainly something like a 4 seed is realistic for them. If they can win the Mountain West tournament then maybe they'll even earn a 3 seed. But I don't think a 2 seed is possible. The Selection Committee will recognize that their RPI is ridiculous. The Lobos will next play on Wednesday, against San Diego State.

Colorado State falls to 8-4 in conference play with this loss, with wins over San Diego State and UNLV, along with a bad loss to Illinois-Chicago. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will drop to around 35th tomorrow. So if the season ended now they'd probably be something like a 9 seed, but they're better than their record. I expect Colorado State to finish strong, and I do still think they're the favorite to win the Mountain West tournament. Their remaining schedule is soft, by Mountain West standards. They'll face Fresno State on Wednesday, followed by a road game at Boise State next Saturday.

North Carolina 76, NC State 65
Television commentators appear to finally be understanding that it's Reggie Bullock, and not James Michael McAdoo, who is the best player on North Carolina. Bullock was the best player on the floor for either team here, with 22 points and 13 rebounds. Marcus Paige also had what probably was the best game of his young career with 14 points and 8 assists. Paige was a big reason why the Tar Heels committed only 9 turnovers the entire game (although McAdoo, still trying to find his game, committed 6 of those). As for NC State, CJ Leslie was completely shut down. Leslie had as many turnovers (6) as points, and had only 4 rebounds. They needed him to step up big to win on the road at North Carolina, and it didn't happen.

North Carolina hasn't locked up an at-large bid yet, but they've certainly pulled themselves clear of the bubble. They are now 9-5 in ACC play with an RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE that are into the Top 20, although a 2-6 record against the RPI Top 50 isn't great. If the Tar Heels go 2-2 or better down the stretch then they should be fine for the NCAA Tournament. That won't be a trivial task, though, with a reasonably difficult schedule. Their next game will be on Thursday, at Clemson.

With this loss, NC State drops to 19-8 overall and 8-6 in ACC play, with wins over Duke, North Carolina and UConn, along with a bad loss to Wake Forest. They are 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be near 25th tomorrow. With a relatively soft schedule, they should be able to lock up an at-large bid with a 3-1 finish. If they go only 2-2 down the stretch and end up 10-8 and then flame out in their opening ACC tournament game, then they might have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma 90, Baylor 76
Refs were calling this game very tight, but Baylor did not adjust properly. Oklahoma attacked the basket and drew a staggering 32 fouls and 45 free throw attempts (Sam Grooms took 17 free throws by himself). But Baylor took more than twice as many three-pointers as Oklahoma (31 vs 14) and ended up with only half as many free throw attempts (21). 29% three-point shooting did them in and cost them the game. Pierre Jackson stands out in particular. He scored 28 points, but it took 23 shots, including 3-for-13 behind the arc. With his ability to beat almost anybody off the dribble and to set up his big men, it's inexcusable that he was just chucking up threes all game. I've talked before about how much more successful Baylor is when Cory Jefferson is getting a lot of shots - he only took 6 shots here.

Baylor is fading fast. They have lost six of eight, and are now 16-11 overall and 7-7 in Big 12 play, and a putrid 8-11 against the RPI Top 200. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely still be inside the Top 40, but if the season ended now they'd probably be an NIT team. Interestingly enough, Baylor's resume is very similar to Iowa, another team I've been talking about a lot lately. Though I think Iowa is better than Baylor, and they're in the better conference, so at this point I think I'd give the narrow edge to Iowa in terms of at-large probability. The only argument for Baylor over Iowa is blind RPI adherence. To make the Tournament, Baylor really needs to find a way to go 3-1 in their final four games. If they go 2-2 then they can still go Dancing if they make some noise in the Big 12 tournament, but it'll be an uphill battle. Their next game will be on Wednesday, at West Virginia.

Oklahoma moves to 18-8 overall and 9-5 in Big 12 play with this win. They have wins over Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor, with potentially iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. They are 8-8 against the RPI Top 100 with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to move up to around 30th tomorrow. Even with just a 2-2 finish down the stretch, Oklahoma should be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Their next game will be at Texas on Wednesday.

1 comment:

Angelo said...

Lobos rpi ridiculous? But they will trust rankings in college football. the bcs