Notre Dame Beats Louisville In 5OT

#25 Notre Dame 104, #11 Louisville 101, 5OT
Can we all agree that this was not a well played game? Because it wasn't. It was just goofy, and it seemed like it would never end. In fact, it really should have ended in regulation. After the Irish scored 48 points in 39 minutes as a team, Jerian Grant scored 12 points in the final minute on three three-pointers and an old fashioned three-point play on a layup that probably should have been a charge... though the refs seemed to give all of the 50/50 calls to the Irish late in the game.

With foul outs stripping both teams of fresh bodies (both teams lost four players to foul outs), the game slowed to a crawl as the overtimes dragged on. I never understand why coaches are so hesitant to substitute in overtime. When foul outs forced Louisville to bring Montrezl Harrell onto the court in the fifth overtime, it looked like he could leap a foot higher than anybody else on the court just because he was fresh. While you can't blame a result in 5OT on anything, I'm sure Russ Smith will be very displeased with his play, particularly on the final possessions of overtime periods. He took poor shots on the final possession of the first three overtime periods, and in the fourth overtime he unwisely took a contested layup on a fast break when Notre Dame would have had to have fouled him if he just dribbled in a circle. In all, he ended up with 21 points on 4-for-19 shooting. Chane Behanan (30 points on 13-for-20 shooting, with 14 rebounds) was probably the best player on the court, but he just couldn't get the ball in any of these overtimes.

This game turned into a blur for the final few overtime periods, but at some point it will dawn on the Louisville players how important this loss is in a game that they absolutely should have won. It's their fourth Big East loss, which severely harms their chances of earning a share of the Big East title. It also could be what costs them a 1 seed, or even a 2 seed, on Selection Sunday. The good news is that their upcoming schedule is extremely soft. They'll play St. John's first, on Thursday, followed by USF, Seton Hall and DePaul.

This win could be what keeps the Irish off the bubble for the rest of the season. They are now 7-4 in Big East play with wins over Kentucky, Louisville, Cincinnati and BYU, along with bad losses to St. John's and St. Joe's. A 10-8 finish or better in Big East play should basically seal their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Their next game will be against DePaul, on Wednesday.

#23 Pittsburgh 62, #17 Cincinnati 52
I've talked all season about the inconsistency of the Cincinnati offense. With their defense, anytime they get a performance like the 36 points Sean Kilpatrick had against Marquette, or the 1.13 PPP they got against Pittsburgh on New Year's Eve, they're pretty unbeatable. But sometimes they just can't score, and you can't win if you can't score. In the final 9:21 of this game, Cincinnati shot 0-for-14 from the field. And over that stretch they saw their five point lead evaporate into a ten point defeat.

Tray Woodall's 4-for-6 shooting behind the arc (and team-leading 14 points) stole the headlines, but the improvement of Steven Adams (13 points on 5-for-6 shooting, with 4 blocks) continues to be the underrated key to Pitt's success this season. In the Ken Pomeroy "similarity scores", the freshman year for Adams so far is most similar to the freshman seasons of Ed Davis, Gorgui Dieng, Trevor Booker, Jarvis Varnado and Terrence Jennings. In other words, putting his potential aside, Adams is already a really good player on both ends of the floor.

This is Pitt's 20th win of the season, and pushes them to 8-4 in Big East play. With a relatively soft remaining Big East schedule (they should be favored in every remaining game) they remain in contention for a share of the Big East regular season title. Their toughest game remaining is their next game, at Marquette next Saturday.

Cincinnati has now lost three of five to drop to 6-5 in Big East play. I never thought that their offense was consistent enough to contend for the Big East title, but this loss should clinch that fate. In no danger of falling onto the Tournament bubble, Cincy is basically just playing over the next month for Tournament seed only. Their next game will be on Tuesday, against Villanova.

Stanford 62, Arizona State 59
The end of this game was a mess. Stanford tried very hard to blow a 16 point second half lead, failing to hit a shot from the field in the final six minutes of the game. Arizona State hit only three shots from the field in the final nine minutes of the game, yet somehow made up significant ground over this stretch. After Jonathan Gilling cut Stanford's lead to three with under 15 seconds left, Chasson Randle committed a terrible turnover to give Arizona State a chance to tie. Bo Barnes attempted a three and missed, and Stanford ended up with the ball with 0.9 seconds left... with the game apparently ended. But Dwight Powell inexplicably threw the inbounds pass off the jumbotron over the court, giving Arizona State another chance under their own basket... which they didn't convert. In other words, neither team deserved to win this game.

Stanford's defense has really tightened up over the past couple of weeks. They have held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 0.85 PPP, and have pushed to 6-5 in Pac-12 play. They only have one quality victory (Oregon) to go with a couple of bad losses (USC and Washington). Stanford's Sagarin ELO_SCORE is now safely within the Top 50, but their 1-7 record against the RPI Top 50 is a significant problem. The Cardinal need to get to 11-7 to have a good chance at an at-large bid. Next week they'll face USC and UCLA at home.

Arizona State is 7-4 in Pac-12 play and 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, which sounds like it should be enough for the bubble, but those stats are deceptive. Their best wins came over UCLA and Colorado, which are more than cancelled out by bad losses to DePaul and Washington. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will likely drop out of the Top 60 when the new numbers come out tomorrow. So if the season ended now, they'd definitely be NIT bound. The Sun Devils will get some chances for nice wins down the stretch, with games against Arizona, Colorado and UCLA, though all three will come on the road. They're going to have to convert on at least one of those to have a realistic chance for an at-large bid. Before that can happen, they have a game coming up at Utah, on Wednesday night.