Sunday, February 24, 2013

Ohio State Beats Michigan State, Effectively Sealing The Title For IU

#18 Ohio State 68, #4 Michigan State 60
This was a tight and fun game that Ohio State somehow managed to win even without getting much from star DeShaun Thomas. Thomas was shut down, with only 4-for-16 shooting from the field, though Aaron Craft picked up much of the load with a strong 21 points and 6 assists.Craft also led a Buckeyes defense that was very sharp in the second half, forcing the ball out of the hands of Keith Appling and forcing the Michigan State bigs to generate their own offense from 10-15 feet away from the basket, which is not the way the Spartans want to play.

With a loss here, the Buckeyes would have just about locked up 5th place in the Big Ten, and been stuck playing Penn State on the first day of the Big Ten tournament. This win keeps their hopes of a top four finish, and a first round bye, alive. It also helps to firm up an Ohio State resume that, until a week ago, only had two wins against the RPI Top 50. This win means that, no matter how they finish the season, they're unlikely to earn worse than a 5 seed. A 4 seed is more likely, and a 3 seed is very realistic, too. Their next game will be on Thursday, at Northwestern.

This loss for Michigan State basically seals Indiana's Big Ten regular season title. They'd have to play poorly just for another team to have a chance to even earn a share of the title. This loss also increases the chances of the Big Ten only having a single 1 seed in March. If Indiana runs away with the title then they'll get a 1 seed, but it will be tough for Michigan State or Michigan to earn a 1 seed without winning the Big Ten tournament. I think the bare minimum for the Spartans to have a good argument for a 1 seed is a 13-5 finish and a trip to the Big Ten tournament semifinals. That means a 2-1 finish to their regular season. A season finale against Northwestern shouldn't be too difficult, but before that they'll have to play at Michigan on Saturday and then at home against Wisconsin the following Thursday. The Spartans need at least a split in those two games.

#7 Michigan 71, Illinois 58
Illinois played this game tight most of the way. They led for most of the first half, and were still only down by four points with under 8 minutes left. A quick Michigan 9-0 burst blew this game wide open, though, and it was not in doubt in the final couple of minutes. The biggest reason for the turn of events was rebounding - Illinois had 7 offensive rebounds in the first half, but zero in the second. Michigan locked down their second chance opportunities, and also used those defense rebounds to get secondary transition points. For the whole game, Illinois had no answer defensively for Trey Burke, who got the basket at will and finished with 26 points (on 8-for-11 shooting) and 8 assists.

Illinois was due to lose a game eventually, and this loss simply ends a five game winning streak that totally turned around their season. Three weeks ago, Illinois was 2-7 in Big Ten play, and looking like a lock for the NIT. No matter how good Illinois was and how many nice wins they had, it's been more than a decade since any team has earned an at-large bid while finishing four or more games below .500 in conference play. So they needed to find a way to get to at least 8-10. And even after this loss, they are still 7-8, and are almost certainly to win at least one of their final three games (their next game is at home against Nebraska on Saturday). If they get to 9-9 then that should more or less seal their at-large bid. If they lose two of their final three and fall to 8-10, they'll need a win in the first round of the Big Ten tournament to feel comfortable about their at-large chances.

Relatively competitive home victories over Penn State and Illinois aren't particularly impressive for Michigan, but it helps to right the ship after a 1-3 stretch. They remain on the periphery of the Big Ten regular season title race, though they probably need to win their final four games to get at least a share of it. They'll play at Penn State on Wednesday and at home against Michigan State next Saturday. If they get to 13-5 (a 3-1 finish) and make it to the Big Ten tournament title game, then that will put them serious consideration for a 1 seed.

#25 Notre Dame 62, Cincinnati 41
The Cincinnati offense is in an awful funk, and has been for about three weeks now. They have lost five of their last six games, during three of which they failed to score more than 0.86 PPP. Their three worst shooting performances have come in this streak, including a season-worst 33.3 eFG% here. It's their worst shooting performance of the season, and the fifth worst by any Big East team in any Big East game all season long. They managed to only score 0.72 PPP here, despite only five turnovers, which mathematically requires poor rebounding and (of course) horrible shooting.

It's no surprise that Cincinnati's two offensive weapons, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright, have struggled badly during this stretch. Kilpatrick has not scored 20 or more points in a game during this streak, and the only game in which he shot better than 38% from the field was also the one game Cincinnati won (against Villanova). He had a season low 6 points on 3-for-13 shooting here. Cashmere Wright has been even worse, failing to break 12 points in a game during this streak (keep in mind that he scored 20+ three times in a four games stretch back in January) and ending up totally shut out here (0 points on 0-for-2 shooting in 23 minutes).

At some point, Cincinnati's offense is going to have to wake up, and their defense is good enough that their offense really doesn't have to be particularly good for them to beat most teams, but they're doing irreparable damage to their NCAA Tournament seed. The Bearcats are now 7-8 in Big East play and 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will fade to around 30th tomorrow. They wouldn't be at risk of being an NIT team if the season ended now, but they could be if they lose two of their final three games, which isn't particularly implausible. A key game will be on Saturday against UConn. A win there would more or less seal up at least a 9-9 finish, and that should be enough to lock them in the Tournament, even if their seed could slide into the 9-11 range.

The Irish move to 10-5 with this win, and remain a long shot contender to earn a share of the Big East regular season title. They can get there by winning their final three games, but that's unlikely considering their schedule (they still have road games at Marquette and Louisville). The Marquette game is up first, on Saturday. But even without a share of the title, Notre Dame has a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that has slid into the Top 25, and they are moving into contention for a 6 or 5 seed, or perhaps even a 4 seed if they finish the season really strong.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Basketball Predictions,

My name is Tina, a Community Manager from Atomic Reach that connects bloggers with brands looking for high-quality content. I am reaching out to you about an opportunity to drive new readers to your site and to increase exposure for your blog.

During March Madness, one of our brands will be launching a new twitter community campaign that shares great content from bloggers like you. If you join, they will be tweeting your content throughout the tournament and drive to your site. I've looked over your blog and think you've got some great knowledge to share, especially your predictions.

If you’re interested or have any questions, please contact me at tinajin [@at] atomicreach.com.
We look forward to you joining our community!

Kindest regards,
Tina Jin
Community Manager