Saturday, February 02, 2013

Oklahoma State Shocks Kansas At Phog Allen

Oklahoma State 85, #2 Kansas 80
You can make a good case that Oklahoma State is the second best team in the Big 12, and Kansas was inevitably going to lose to somebody (going 18-0 is just so unlikely in a major conference nowadays), but this was still a pretty shocking loss. Not just that Oklahoma State broke the 33 game winning streak Kansas had at Phog Allen, but how they did it. Kansas actually was the team that shot better behind the arc (45%). But despite not being a particularly big team, Oklahoma State hung even with Kansas on the glass and found a way to score in the paint repeatedly. Kansas has the best interior defender in the nation in Jeff Withey and came into this game leading the nation with a 37.2 2P% against. Yet here, Oklahoma State hit 48.8% of their two-pointers.

Markel Brown was Oklahoma State's best offensive weapon, leading all players with 28 points on 9-for-17 shooting. Marcus Smart was the best OSU player overall, scoring 23 points with 8 offensive rebounds and 5 steals. He plays this well inconsistently, but when he has games like this you can see why he has so much potential as a future NBA player. He just needs to put it all together to be more consistent offensively.

Kansas didn't give up easily in this game, of course. Down by 8 with a minute to go, they hit threes on consecutive possessions and eventually pulled within 1 with around 19 seconds left. Oklahoma State managed to break the press on the next play, with Phil Forte getting fouled. It was on this play that a timing goof appeared to give Kansas an extra 3-4 seconds, though the refs missed it. It didn't matter, though, because Forte hit both free throws and Elijah Johnson turned the ball over on Kansas's last chance.

As I said at the top of this post, you can make a good case that Oklahoma State is the second best team in the Big 12. They should be ranked the second best Big 12 team in both Sagarin and Pomeroy when the new numbers come out tomorrow. The question is how they will handle the success of this big win. They will play Baylor on Wednesday followed by Texas on Saturday. Either of those games can be lost if they lose focus.

Kansas shouldn't have any trouble bouncing back at TCU on Wednesday. Next Saturday they'll have another tough game, on the road at Oklahoma.

#14 Miami 79, #19 North Carolina State 78
It seems like Miami is overdue for a letdown game, but they just keep winning. It's been a remarkable run for them. They've won nine straight games, including the huge win over Duke, the destruction of Florida State and now this quality win at NC State. They did get a break here with Lorenzo Brown missing the game with injury, and they needed a final second tip-in by Reggie Johnson to get the win. At the same time, the fact that they were even in this game at the end with 3-for-21 three-point shooting was very impressive.

Miami usually struggles to get offensive rebounds, but they won the battle of the boards here. Miami also committed only 8 turnovers while forcing 10 steals. Shane Larkin was superb, hitting 5-for-9 from the field along with 5 assists and 5 steals. Durand Scott led Miami with 18 points (on 6-for-10 shooting), and Julian Gamble led all players with 4 offensive rebounds.

Considering the struggles Duke has had without Ryan Kelly, Miami is firmly in control of the ACC regular season title. They've still got almost a month until the big showdown at Cameron Indoor. In the meanwhile they just need to avoid bad losses and they will be favored to win the regular season title even if they lose at Duke. Their next game will be against Boston College on Tuesday.

NC State drops to 5-4 in ACC play with this loss. They have victories over Duke, North Carolina and UConn, along with a bad loss to Wake Forest. They are 6-5 against the RPI Top 100 and their RPI is 21st, which is close to where their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be tomorrow. So I don't think they're really at risk of falling onto the bubble, but in a down ACC they need to get to 10-8 to be sure. Their next game will be a tough one, on Thursday night at Duke.

Northern Iowa 57, #15 Wichita State 52
Northern Iowa blew this game open with a 14-0 run midway through the second half. Wichita State pulled within two points with just over a minute to go, but failed to score on their final three possessions. Northern Iowa did an excellent job keeping the Missouri Valley's best offensive rebounding team off of the glass (only 5 offensive rebounds), and took advantage of Wichita State's penchant for fouling (UNI earned 11 more free throw attempts).

This loss drops Wichita State a game behind Creighton in the Missouri Valley standings, with a game still remaining at Creighton. Wichita State probably needs to pull the upset in that game to win the Valley regular season title now, though I still think both teams are safe NCAA Tournament teams.

Northern Iowa moves to 5-6 with this win, and a tie for 5th place. Obviously it's ideal to finish in 6th place or higher in the Missouri Valley to avoid playing in the Missouri Valley tournament first round, and to avoid the Creighton/Wichita State juggernauts until at least the semifinals. UNI's next game will be on Tuesday against Missouri State. Wichita State will play next on Tuesday, at Southern Illinois.

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