Saturday, February 02, 2013

Oregon Loses A Second Straight

California 58, #10 Oregon 54
I try not to pay attention to the human Top 25 polls, because they're meaningless and they tend to be pretty bad. But one of the worst rankings I'd seen all season was Oregon at 10th. They weren't even Top 25 in any of the Sagarin ratings or Pomeroy, and just moved up by inertia by eating through a cream puff schedule. And next week they'll drop to a more realistic poll position after being "upset" in two games in which they were actually underdogs in Vegas (Cal was a one point favorite here).

California won this game because of eight more offensive rebounds and eight fewer turnovers. The reason this game was so close despite 16 extra possessions was because California really struggled badly from the field, finishing with a 39.0 eFG%, their fourth worst shooting performance of the season. The one Cal player who scored efficiently was Allen Crabbe, who had 13 points on 6-for-11 shooting.

With these two losses, Oregon drops to 7-2 in the Pac-12 and could potentially be tied with either Arizona or Arizona State by the end of the night. That said, the Ducks still have the tiebreak over all of their top contenders, and remain in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 regular season title. Next week they'll come home to face Colorado on Thursday and then Utah on Saturday.

With this win, California moves to 13-8 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12, with this win to go with bad losses to Harvard and Washington. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move into the Top 60 tomorrow, so they're getting closer to the bubble. To have a good chance for an at-large bid, they probably need to get to 11-7 in conference play and then will need at least one win in the Pac-12 tournament. Next week they'll be on the road to face Arizona State on Thursday and then Arizona the following Sunday. Obviously they'll be happy to get through the week with a split.

#18 Kansas State 52, Oklahoma 50
Oklahoma trailed by eight with two minutes to go, but proceeded to tie up the game with a furious 8-0 rally. Holding for a final shot, Angel Rodriguez got to the line for Kansas State, where he hit a pair of free throws to effectively end the game. For the game as a whole, both teams struggled badly offensively. The two teams combined to score only 0.85 PPP. Kansas State had a poor 42.0 eFG%, despite the ten steals that they forced.

But as I always say, a win's a win as far as the Selection Committee goes. They do not care about the scores of games or any "eye test" - they just want to know what your resume is. And so this is an important win for a Kansas State team that could slide a whole bunch of seed lines up or down before Selection Sunday. With this win, the Wildcats move to 17-4 overall and 5-2 in the Big 12, with wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma (twice). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be close to 20th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. Their next game will be on Tuesday, at Texas Tech.

Oklahoma drops to 14-6 overall with this loss, and 5-3 in the Big 12 play. They have wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State, along with iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. That doesn't sound particularly impressive, but it puts them 7-5 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is 22nd. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be closer to around 35th, but they'd still definitely be in the Tournament if the season ended now. To stay in the Tournament they probably need to get to 10-8 in Big 12 play with a win in the Big 12 tournament. Their next game will be at Iowa State on Monday.

Akron 86, Ohio 72
This was the first of three likely meetings between the two MAC alpha dogs. These two teams will play again at Ohio on February 27th, and are obviously the two favorites to face off in the MAC title game. These games matter not just for the MAC regular season title, but also for an easier draw in the MAC tournament, and even a potential at-large bid (more on that in a moment).

Ohio's biggest problem in this game was dealing with Akron big man Zeke Marshall (17 points on 8-for-8 shooting, along with 12 rebounds and 2 blocks). Marshall's defense actually mattered more than his offense. Ohio came into this game leading the MAC in 2P% (57.0%), but they were held to 45.5% here. That said, I don't think all of the credit goes to Akron's defense. Walter Offutt and DJ Cooper were both off offensively (2-for-10 behind the arc), and I do still think Ohio is the team with the higher ceiling. Zeke Marshall is probably the best player in the MAC, but he's not an explosive scorer, nor is anybody else on Akron. Ohio has a wide array of explosive scorers. They didn't score efficiently here, but I still give Ohio the edge in the rematch, and eventually in a hypothetical MAC title game.

It's worth pointing out, as I pointed out earlier, that Akron is a potential bubble team this season. The MAC has not had an at-large NCAA Tournament team since 1999, so it's an uphill battle for the Zips. But right now they are 17-4 overall, with a win over Middle Tennessee along with bad losses to Coastal Carolina and Detroit. Their RPI is 52nd and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is around 60th, but the lack of a really big win is a problem. They'll need to hope for a good Bracketbusters opponent, and then they'll need to avoid any more bad losses.

Akron's next game will be against Central Michigan on Tuesday. Ohio will be on the road at Ball State on Wednesday.

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