Saturday, February 16, 2013

Pitt Falls To Marquette

#18 Marquette 79, #16 Pittsburgh 69
Home has been sweet for Marquette this season. With this win they are now 7-0 at home in Big East play, compared to 2-3 on the road. That's not to say that they've been dominant, but their frenetic style seems to play a lot better in their home arena. Their turnovers are down, and they get to the free throw line a lot more. Things were no different here, as Pitt was called for nearly twice as many fouls (20 vs 12) and Marquette earned nearly twice as many free throw attempts (29 vs 16). Vander Blue was very sharp, scoring 19 points on 7-for-8 shooting. Blue is still not a good outside shooter, but he's a silky scorer in and around the paint.

This game had a significant impact on the Big East title race. Marquette moves to 9-3, and into a three-way tie atop the league with Syracuse and Georgetown. Pittsburgh falls to 8-5, which puts them almost out of contention. They'll need to win their final five games to have a shot at a share of the title. Their remaining schedule is pretty soft, and they'll be favored in all five games, but the odds are still against them. They'll play Notre Dame next, on Monday night.

Marquette's success at home has effectively locked up a Tournament bid and has put them in serious contention for the Big East regular season title, but if they're going to earn that title then it's going to have to happen on the road. Four of their six remaining games will be on the road. Only one of those four games is against a bubble or NCAA Tournament quality team (Villanova), but it will be a significant test just for Marquette to avoid slipping up at the likes of Seton Hall and St. John's. Their next game will be on Tuesday, at Seton Hall.

#17 Oklahoma State 84, Oklahoma 79, OT
Marcus Smart had one of his best games for Oklahoma State, scoring 28 points on 7-for-14 shooting, and leading Oklahoma State back from a six point deficit with under six minutes to go. In overtime, the hero was Le'Bryan Nash, who scored 26 points, including seven points in overtime (the entire Oklahoma Sooners squad only scored six in overtime). With both Markel Brown and Phil Forte having fairly good days also, it took a really nice performance from Oklahoma on the road just to be in this game. But they tend to be at their best when Romero Osby and Steven Pledger are effective, which they were here. Osby had 18 points and 15 rebounds, while Pledger added 18 points on 7-for-15 shooting.

It tends to be demoralizing when you play really well and still lose a game, and that's doubly so when it comes against your rival. So this is a tough loss for the Sooners to be sure. This is also a missed opportunity for what would have been a really nice resume win. Oklahoma falls to 7-5 in Big 12 play, with wins over Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma State, along with potentially iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. At 9-8 against the RPI Top 100 and with an RPI that is 18th, Oklahoma is clearly an NCAA Tournament team at the moment. They can probably lock up a bid if they get to 11-7. At 10-8 they might need a win in the Big 12 tournament. Their next game will at Texas Tech on Wednesday.

Oklahoma State stays in a three-way tie with Kansas and Kansas State at 9-3. Their biggest game of the season so far will come on Wednesday, when Kansas comes to town. If they can win that game, then the Big 12 title really could come down to their season finale against Kansas State. If Oklahoma State loses, however, then Kansas will reclaim control of the Big 12. I do still think Kansas is the clear best team in the Big 12, but it'll be awfully hard for them to overcome a virtual two game deficit (one game back in the standings and without the tiebreak) if they fall in Stillwater.

Arkansas 73, Missouri 71
Arkansas continued their hot play at home, while Missouri continued their poor play on the road, although Missouri can feel like they were undone by the refs here. The first questionable came with Missouri up by two and around 20 seconds left, when BJ Young was fouled, took about three more steps, and scored a basket. That was NBA-style "continuation", followed by the reality that refs are absolutely loathe to call a travel after a foul call. Young hit the free throw to put Arkansas up by one. Flip Pressey then dribbled up the floor and lost the ball (on a play where he was arguably fouled, although you can probably argue that one either way). Coty Clarke dribbled down the floor, got too aggressive, and eventually the ball got lost out of bounds... apparently off of Arkansas, but the refs said it was off Missouri. With the ball back, BJ Young got fouled, hit one of two, and Jabari Brown couldn't hit a shot at the buzzer.

In a game this close, referee calls can certainly make the difference. And so Missouri didn't really play poorly here. But it adds to the perception that both Arkansas and Missouri are awfully different at home versus on the road. Arkansas is 15-1 at home this season and 1-8 away from home. Missouri, meanwhile, is 14-0 at home and 1-6 in true road games, with the one road win coming over a putrid Mississippi State team. The Selection Committee does not like it when teams have not proven that they can beat a decent team on the road, and so that's why both Missouri and Arkansas have a Tournament case, but clearly have work left to do.

Missouri drops to 7-5 in SEC play with this loss, and a mediocre 9-7 against the RPI Top 200. They have wins over VCU, Illinois, Stanford and Ole Miss, along with bad losses to LSU and Texas A&M. Their RPI is 38th, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should still be near 30th. An 11-7 SEC record should lock up an at-large bid. At 10-8 they might need to win a game in the SEC tournament. They've got a huge game coming up against Florida on Tuesday. A win there would probably put any bubble concerns to rest.

Arkansas is now also 7-5 in SEC play. They have wins over Florida, Missouri and Oklahoma, along with bad losses to South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Their RPI is 78th, though their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move close to 50th. They'd be an NIT team if the season ended now, but they're closing in on the bubble. I think they need to get to 11-7 to have a good chance. A road win at Florida next Saturday would obviously end the concerns about road wins, though that's an unlikely one. Before that they need to avoid a bad home loss to Georgia, on Thursday.

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