Syracuse Stumbles Against Marquette

#22 Marquette 74, #12 Syracuse 71
What's mystifying about the fading fortunes of Syracuse (this is their 5th loss in their last 9 games) is that you can't really point at one problem. Perhaps it's a good thing that Syracuse has no fatal flaw, but it's got to be a serious concern for Jim Boeheim that his team seems so incapable of putting a complete game together.

Probably the most persistent problem that Syracuse has had has been Michael Carter-Williams. Carter-Williams is a terrific offensive creator when he chooses to be. He had 9 or more assists in 11 of his first 14 games played this season. Since? He has hit the 9 assists margin just once in his last 14 games. Carter-Williams is now averaging 7.3 assists per game in Big East wins, versus only 3.4 assists per game in Big East losses (he had 5 assists and 4 turnovers here). Carter-Williams is a tremendous raw talent and athlete, but he just seems to have lost focus offensively the past few weeks, and it's ground the Syracuse offense to a halt. His one 9+ assists performance in the past 14 games? Against Providence last week, where he had 12 assists and only 8 shots taken. The result? Syracuse scored 84 points and crushed the Friars by 25.

Davante Gardner was the star for Marquette here, dominating Syracuse in the paint for 26 points on 7-for-7 shooting from the field and 12-for-13 shooting at the line. It's not often that you'll see a performance like that against the Syracuse zone. By the way, I was looking up stats on Marquette's offense at home, which has been absurd this season, and came across this gem that you can use as trivia. Three teams have held Marquette below 1 PPP at home this season, and those three teams are Georgetown, Wisconsin and... Southeastern Louisiana. Which of those is not like the other?

This loss drops Syracuse to two full games back of Georgetown for the Big East title, though they still have a chance for a share. The reality was that they were going to need to win their season finale at Georgetown to have a chance of a share of the Big East regular season title anyway. But first, they'll play Louisville on Saturday, which represents another game that they must win to stay in the Big East title hunt. The Orange also need a win to keep their Tournament seed from dropping into the 4-5 range, after it had been in the 1-2 range for much of the season.

Marquette moves to within a half game of Georgetown atop the Big East, and pushes their Sagarin ELO_SCORE ever closer to the top ten. With a 6-4 record against the RPI Top 50, they are making a very strong claim for a 3 seed, and could move up to a 2 seed with a strong finish to the season. They'll play Notre Dame on Saturday, and then will finish the regular season with a couple of interesting road games, at Rutgers and St. John's. At 3-6 in true road games this season, Marquette has yet to prove a particularly dominant team away from the Bradley Center.

#6 Kansas 108, Iowa State 96, OT
Let's be clear about two things. First, Kansas outplayed Iowa State and was the better team. Second, without a whole string of referee calls in KU's favor late in regulation, Iowa State would have won this game. And that makes this a really tough loss for the Cyclones. One play that stands out to me was Jeff Withey clearly committing his fifth foul, but the refs giving the foul to Kevin Young for some reason. And the call that is getting the most buzz in social media, for obvious reasons, is the holding call following a blown no-call (it was a clear charge) that allowed Elijah Johnson to hit a pair of free throws at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime.

Elijah Johnson, after struggling so much throughout February, had a monster game here. He scored 39 points, with 6-for-10 shooting behind the arc including a 25 foot dagger with the shot clock running out late in overtime. So how was Iowa State in this game? Insane outside shooting of their own. They hit 17-for-41 behind the arc, including 17-for-35 (49%) in regulation. The stat that stands out is that Iowa State in regulation hit 49% of their three-pointers but only 26% of their two-pointers. What's particularly amazing is that Withey didn't even have a block today. But that just shows how overrated the block stat is, since Withey was the dominant reason that the Cyclones couldn't score in the paint. Withey is far and away the best low post defender in the nation... but there's not much you can do when your opponent is nailing 25 footers against you. Sadly for Iowa State, they got a taste of their own medicine in overtime.

If Iowa State misses the NCAA Tournament, they're going to look back at two brutal overtime losses to Kansas. At this point, though, I do still think they'll sneak in. They are 9-6 in Big 12 play with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will remain near 35th. They need at least two more wins from their final two regular seasons and/or the Big 12 tournament, and really need three to feel comfortable about things. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Oklahoma.

Kansas remains in a tie with Kansas State atop the Big 12 after this victory. With the tiebreak locked up and an easier remaining schedule, they'll likely be the 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, as they seemingly are every season. They have a pretty soft week coming up, with a home game against West Virginia on Saturday followed by a home game next Monday against Texas Tech.

Seton Hall 66, Villanova 65
Coming in with a nine game losing streak, it's hard to think of many teams more desperate for a win than Seton Hall. They're obviously just playing the rest of the season for pride, but they played great here, and ended up with a really exciting comeback victory. Villanova led for much of the second half, and led by four with under 30 seconds to go. Fuquan Edwin got to the line and hit both, to bring Seton Hall within two points with around 16 seconds left, and what followed was one of the wildest sequences I've seen all season. Villanova got the ball in to James Bell, who seemed startled by the fact that he was being trapped instead of being immediately fouled. The ball eventually got poked out from his grasp, and Tom Mayaan grabbed it, and as he was falling to the ground somehow found Fuquan Edwin, who nailed a three-pointer in the corner. Ryan Arcidiacono missed a tough, contested shot just before the buzzer, and Seton Hall walked away with the victory.

Coming off a big win over Marquette, this was definitely not what Villanova needed. This loss drops them to 9-7 in Big East play, with a 6-9 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to fade very close to 50th tomorrow. So if the season ended now, I think Villanova would probably be one of the first teams out of the NCAA Tournament. To get back in, they've really got to win one of those final two tough games (at Pittsburgh, vs Georgetown). If they can get one of those two games and then win at least one Big East tournament game (preferably two) then they should be in decent shape. The Pitt game is up first, on Sunday.

This win moves Seton Hall to 14-15 overall, and keeps alive their hope of finishing the season over .500. They'll have more than a week off before playing their next game, at Providence on March 5th. Their season finale will be against Rutgers, on March 8th.