Thursday, February 07, 2013

TCU Has A Historic Upset Of Kansas

TCU 62, #5 Kansas 55
There are so many ways to describe how shocking this upset is. TCU has made the NCAA Tournament three times in the past 40 years, and never even came close as a member of the Mountain West (this is their first year in the Big 12, of course). They only even made the NIT once this century, in 2005. They came into this game 278th in Pomeroy and 242nd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They were rated that low because they were 0-8 in conference play (losing those games by an average of 16 points per game), including a nine point home loss to Texas Tech, the team they're competing with for the Big 12 cellar. And that doesn't even include losses to Houston, SMU and Tulsa.

Now, this isn't the "biggest upset ever". Kansas was only a 17 point favorite. But it's certainly the biggest upset this season by a ranked team. And as you'd expect, it took a whole lot of things going wrong. Kansas had a 32.0 eFG% and 0.81 PPP. That's their worst offensive efficiency since they lost 68-55 to UCLA in the 2007 Elite Eight. And searching back more than a decade, I couldn't find a Kansas shooting performance even close to that poor (the closest I got was a 35.8 eFG% against Colorado on January 22, 2003).

So what does this mean for Kansas? While I never want to overreact to a single loss, I don't think we can totally discount this one for Kansas. The reality is that it emphasizes their real offensive woes, and just how inconsistent teams can play if they can't get consistent scoring. Kansas needs to get better point guard play to make an NCAA Tournament title run. Now that said, they're certainly the very, very heavy favorite to win the Big 12 and they're still my pick to earn a 1 seed. But there are serious questions about them now. They'll try to bounce back at Oklahoma on Saturday.

Obviously TCU won't match a result like this the rest of the season. If they win more than one or two games the rest of the season, honestly, that'll be a success. They have a winnable game coming up on Saturday, against West Virginia.

Indiana State 76, #16 Creighton 57
It's jarring to see Creighton unable to hit shots. They came into this game leading the nation in 3P% (44.9%) and 2P% (56.9%), but hit only 27.8% behind the arc and 50.0% inside the arc. At the same time, Indiana State was about as sharp as they've looked all season, committing only 4 turnovers and hitting 41% of their threes. Indiana State continues to wreak havoc in the Missouri Valley, as Creighton and Wichita State continue to get dragged closer to the rest of the pack.

So how good is Indiana State? I find it interesting that they've become a media darling. After wins over Creighton, Wichita State, Ole Miss and Miami, they are getting a ton of at-large buzz. Seth Davis even declared that Indiana State had their at-large bid wrapped up and only needed to concern itself with what seed they'd get. But that said, pretty much everything Seth Davis says about college basketball is wrong, and he was wrong again here. The reality is that Indiana State's resume would still put them in the NIT if the season ended now. They have bad losses to Drake, Morehead State, Southern Illinois and Illinois State, and are only 9-8 against the RPI Top 200. They entered today with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that was 90th entering today. It'll move up quite a bit after this win, but they're still well outside the range that can earn an at-large bid.

Indiana State has six remaining conference games, as well as a Bracketbusters game against Iona. It's very hard for me to see them earning an at-large bid unless they go 5-2 or better over that seven game stretch. And I'd bet against it. I still think Indiana State is an NIT team. Their next game will be on Saturday, against Southern Illinois.

Creighton falls to 20-4 overall and 9-3 in conference play, with a 7-3 record against the RPI Top 100 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should still be in the vicinity of 25th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They'd have to lose another two or three games to fall to the Tournament bubble, but it's not inconceivable. They need to avoid any more bad losses, to protect a decent NCAA Tournament seed if nothing else. Their next game will be on Saturday, against Illinois State.

Central Florida 60, Southern Miss 58
Southern Miss probably deserved to win this game. They had more offensive rebounds, fewer turnovers, and shot better on two-pointers and free throws. But they were close enough that some cold three-point shooting (27.3%) and some friendly home court reffing for UCF (Southern Miss was called for nearly twice as many fouls and allowed nearly twice as many free throw attempts) allowed UCF to squeak by with a two point victory. Keith Clanton was a monster for UCF, finishing with 7 blocks and 4 steals. Tristan Spurlock led all scorers with 18 points for the Knights.

Southern Miss had been rolling through a cupcake schedule. They came into this game having won 10 straight. Overall they are now 18-5 overall and 7-1 in Conference USA play, but without a single big win, and with bad losses to New Mexico State and now UCF. Southern Miss is now 0-5 against the RPI Top 100, which isn't good enough for an at-large bid, no matter how gaudy their won-loss record is. If the season ended now, Southern Miss would definitely be an NIT bid. They have a massive game coming up on Saturday against Memphis - a near must-win game if they're going to make a run at an at-large bid.

Central Florida is not eligible for the postseason this year, but they're hanging in with a decent season. This win pushes them to 16-6 overall and 6-2 in Conference USA play. They'll try to move to 7-2 against East Carolina on Saturday.

No comments: