Texas A&M Knocks Off Missouri

Texas A&M 70, #21 Missouri 68
Missouri's #21 ranking was obviously a bit silly. They weren't in the Top 25 in any computer rating I saw, which generally had them in the 30-35 range. And they haven't won a road game all season (now 0-5), which you'd think is something of a prerequisite for a Top 25 team in the month of FEbruary. They were only a four point favorite in Vegas for this game. But still, it was pretty surprising to see them fall to a very mediocre Texas A&M team.

Missouri trailed for the first 19 minutes of the second half, down by as many as 16 points, but it still always seemed like the Tigers were going to come back. And they did, when a defensive breakdown allowed Laurence Bowers a wide open three-pointer that put Missouri up by one with just under one minute to go. And then after Fabyon Harris turned the ball over and Missouri got the ball back with only about one second between the shot clock and game clock, Texas A&M seemed totally unaware that they needed to foul. After about 15 seconds of chaos, they finally started to chase after Phil Pressey, who had a brief moment of panic and tossed the ball way into the crowd for a terrible turnover. With the ball back, Fabyon Harris redeemed himself with a cold blooded three-pointer. Missouri had a chance on the other end, but a Ray Turner block clinched the win.

Despite being overrated at #21, Missouri still isn't at too much risk of missing the NCAA Tournament. They are now 5-4 in SEC play, with wins over VCU and Stanford, along with bad losses to LSU and now Texas A&M. They are 5-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should be near 35th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They probably need to get to 11-7 in SEC play to stay in the Tournament, since a 10-8 record in a down SEC (clearly the worst of the six BCS conferences) won't look particularly good on Selection Sunday. Missouri's next game will be on Satuday, against Ole Miss.

Texas A&M, now with this win to go with an incomprehensible upset of Kentucky, is a surprising 4-5 in SEC play. They're still a long shot to get into the bubble hunt, though. They'd have to get to at least 10-8 in conference play to have a chance, and even that probably won't be enough. They'll try to move to 5-5 on Saturday, on the road at Georgia.

Murray State 79, Belmont 74
The most underrated move in conference realignment, in my opinion, was Belmont moving from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley Conference. Murray State and Belmont have been two really good programs for the past few years, and I was salivating at the thought of these two teams going at it in conference play. That said, they unfortunately will only get to play once a year in regular season play, and the game this season happened to be at Murray State. Belmont will have to try to get their revenge in the OVC title game (Eastern Kentucky is a pretty good team, but it's hard to see anybody messing up a Belmont/Murray State game with the NCAA Tournament on the line).

This was a really exciting game, too, though it didn't seem like it would be one early. Murray State opened up a 12 point lead in the first half, and a 15 point lead in the second half. They still led by 14 with under five minutes left. But Ian Clark took over for Belmont, hitting four straight shots (including three behind the arc) and also adding a steal and assist in those final five minutes. Clark's last shot in that run was a three to tie up the game with under a minute to go. But Murray State star Isaiah Canaan responded on the other end with a cold-blooded three to put Murray State back in front. Ian Clark then got turned over on the other end of the floor, and free throws were enough to seal the victory for the Racers.

Murray State deserves a lot of credit for only committing 8 turnovers against an aggressive Belmont defense (they're averaging 18.3 forced per game in conference play), but I don't think that this result makes them the favorite in the OVC. Belmont has been the better team in conference play (+0.26 PPP vs +0.09 PPP for Murray State) and is rated much higher in the computers. And a win in the final seconds at home is no proof of team superiority. So while this win is great for Murray State, Belmont is still my pick to win the OVC's automatic bid.

With Belmont's ten game winning streak snapped, they'll try to lick their wounds at Austin Peay on Saturday. Murray State will also play on Saturday, at home against Tennessee State.

UCLA 59, Washington 57
This wasn't the prettiest game, though it had a fun ending. Both teams shot under 25% behind the arc and had more turnovers than assists. The two teams combined for 0.82 PPP. Shabazz Muhammad led all players with 22 points, though it took him 23 shots from the field (as well as six more at the line) to get there. But down by two with under 15 seconds to go, CJ Wilcox scored on a nice driving layup to tie this game up. Ben Howland allowed the game to play out without calling a timeout, and Larry Drew hit a pretty fadeaway jumper to win the game at the buzzer.

UCLA's offense is ranked 23rd in the nation by Pomeroy, but it has really gotten into a rut in conference play. After scoring at least 1.19 PPP in their final four non-conference games, they have failed to crack even 1 PPP in six of their ten conference games, and are only scoring 0.98 PPP overall in Pac-12 play. And it's why their computer ratings continue to slide (they should drop out of the Pomeroy Top 50 after this performance).

But despite their struggles, UCLA is still 17-6 overall and 7-3 in conference play, with wins over Arizona, Missouri, Colorado and Stanford, along with bad losses to Cal Poly, USC and Arizona State. Their RPI is 43rd, which is close to where their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be when tomorrow's new numbers come out. If the season ended now they'd almost certainly be an NCAA Tournament team, but with very little room to spare. They probably need to get to 12-6 in Pac-12 play to stay in the Tournament. If they fall to 11-7 then they'll have work left to do in the Pac-12 tournament. They'll play Washington State on Saturday.

Washington drops to 5-5 in Pac-12 play and only 9-10 against the RPI Top 200 after this loss. They're still in at-large contention, but they're not on the bubble for the time being. They'll have to get to at least 11-7 in conference play to be on the bubble on Selection Sunday. The Huskies will play next on Sunday, at USC.