UConn Sends Off Syracuse With A Defeat

UConn 66, #6 Syracuse 58
This is the last regular season game between these two teams as members of the Big East, and could be the last game of any kind between them for quite a while. UConn sent Syracuse off in style, defeating them and knocking them back into a three-way tie for first place in the Big East. The difference in this game, more than anything, was shooting. UConn hit 57% of their threes while Syracuse was 4-for-23. The shooting allowed UConn to overcome 18 turnovers and 18 allowed Syracuse offensive rebounds.

Ryan Boatright was the best player on the floor for either team, scoring 17 points on 6-for-10 shooting, with 4 assists and 3 steals. Omar Calhoun added 15 points of his own. Michael Carter-Williams was 6-for-13 from the field for Syracuse, but with only 1 assist. And as I've said before, Syracuse is always better when Carter-Williams is a facilitator first, instead of a scorer. Brandon Triche had a brutal 3-for-15 shooting day. James Southerland played well in his return from academic suspension (14 points, including 4-for-9 behind the arc), but it wasn't enough.

Syracuse is now in a three-way tie with Georgetown and Marquette, with Pittsburgh a half game back and Louisville lurking. They have four games left against those four teams, so obviously they control their own destiny for the Big East title. Despite three losses in their last five games, I don't think Syracuse has played itself out of a 1 seed yet. If they can win at least a share of the Big East regular season title and then also earn the Big East tournament title, there's a good chance that will be enough for a 1 seed. They'll play on the road at Seton Hall on Saturday, followed by a home game against Providence next Wednesday. After that is when the real battle for the Big East title will begin, with consecutive games against Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville.

UConn is not eligible for the postseason this year, but they have a respectable 7-4 Big East record and continue to play the role of a spoiler, having taken down Michigan State, Notre Dame and now Syracuse. They'll play Providence on Saturday, and then Cincinnati on the following Thursday.

Charlotte 71, #11 Butler 67
Butler is very overrated at #11, and they were due for some "reality check" losses, but I don't think most people saw that coming at Hinkle Fieldhouse against Charlotte. Butler almost pulled this game out, going on a furious run in the final few minutes. They had a chance out of timeout with around three seconds left and down by only three points, but they had surprisingly poor execution and turned the ball over.

Charlotte is not a team with good jumper shooters (they're dead last in the A-10 with 25.2% three-point shooting in conference play), but they had a surprising amount of success attacking the basket here. They hit 56% of their two-pointers, and also earned 29 free throws vs only 17 for Butler, despite being on the road. Pierria Henry was the star, scoring 17 points and lead all players in FT attempts (7) and steals (4).

Butler, on the other hand, hit only 43% of their two-point attempts. This was only the seventh time all season that they've been held below 1 PPP. But despite their struggles here, I don't think that this loss is a killer for the Bulldogs. Their #11 ranking is a bit ridiculous, but their resume is strong. They are 7-5 against the RPI Top 100, with zero RPI 100+ losses. Their RPI is 17th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will still be near 30th. At 7-3 in A-10 play, they should be safe for the NCAA Tournament if they get to 11-5. At 10-6 they might need to win a game in the A-10 tournament to avoid having to sweat things out on Selection Sunday. Their next game will be on Saturday, at Fordham.

This win doesn't quite get Charlotte to the bubble, but they're in at-large contention. The 49ers are now 18-6 overall and 6-4 in the Atlantic Ten, with wins over La Salle and Butler to go with bad losses to Florida State, Richmond and George Washington. Their RPI is 55th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should move close to 75th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They need to get to at least 10-6 in the A-10 to be in at-large contention, and probably need to get to 11-5 to have a good chance. They've got a really tough road game at St. Louis coming up on Saturday. After that they'll come home for key games against Temple and Dayton.

Texas A&M 69, Ole Miss 67
This season peaked way too early for Ole Miss. Two and a half weeks ago they were 17-2 overall and 6-0 in the SEC, with the most popular gif of the year featuring the newest star in college basketball. But reality hit for them in the beat down by Kentucky. There's no shame in losing to Florida, but then they got whooped by Missouri and fell here to a mediocre Texas A&M team. With only a home win against bottom feeder Mississippi State in that streak, Ole Miss has seen its Pomeroy rating fade from 22nd to 34th, and it will fall even further after this result. All of their computer ratings are falling apart, really.

What's changed during this losing streak? Defense. In their first 19 games of the season, they allowed only two opponents to score more than 1.05 PPP, and none broke 1.10 PPP. They have allowed more than 1.05 PPP in all four of these recent losses, averaging 1.20 PPP. Now to be fair, some of that is just hot shooting by their opponents. And here it was another epic Elston Turner game (37 points, including 7-for-10 behind the arc). This is the second time this season that Turner has gone nuts to carry his team to a big win (he also had 40 points in an 83-71 win over Kentucky). But you can make excuses for one loss... not for four in five games.

If Ole Miss misses the NCAA Tournament, they'll need to blame their cupcake non-conference schedule more than anything else. They only have one iffy loss (Indiana State), but they only have one decent win (Missouri). Not only does Ole Miss have only one win this season over the RPI Top 60, but they won't face another RPI Top 60 team the rest of the way. And that's why it's hard to see Ole Miss not needing at least one win in the SEC tournament to avoid the NIT. They'd have to basically win the rest of their regular season games to not have to stress heading into the SEC tourney.

Texas A&M is now 5-6 in SEC play and 8-9 against the RPI Top 200. They're getting better, but it's still very unlikely that they'll make an appearance on the bubble this season. The Aggies will go on the road next, to play at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Ole Miss will also play on Saturday, at home against Georgia.