Underrated Pittsburgh Topples Short-Handed Syracuse

Pittsburgh 65, #6 Syracuse 55
I think a lot of the country learned what some of us already knew: Pittsburgh is a really good team. A few close losses against elite opponents had kept them unranked in the human polls, but that doesn't mean a whole lot about how good they really are. Pomeroy projected a 4 point win for Pitt and Sagarin projected a 3 point win, and Vegas took the middle by setting by a 3.5 point spread. But that line didn't take into the account that James Southerland is out with academic issues and DaJuan Coleman is out with an injury, so as I talked about on twitter before the game, Pitt-3.5 seemed like a pretty obvious bet. Syracuse struggled with defensive rebounding even when they were at full strength, and they really struggled here, particularly in the second half. In all, Pitt had a 51.9 OR%, compared to a 25.8 OR% for Syracuse.

Pitt got extremely balanced production in this game. Seven different players scored at least six points, while none scored more than 13. Talib Zanna's six offensive rebounds were huge, and I thought Steven Adams (8 points, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks) had a nice breakout game - it's pretty clear that he'll be a really good player in a couple of years. Syracuse got 20 points from CJ Fair, but another confusing game from Michael Carter-Williams. Too often, Carter-Williams seems content to dribble up and launch long jumpers before working the offense. He has tremendous talent and passing ability - he just needs the patience to create for his teammates. He has done it plenty of times this year, but this isn't the first time this season he's showed his young age.

Pitt is now 6-4 in the Big East and 18-5 overall, with wins over Georgetown, UConn and Syracuse, along with a bad loss to Rutgers. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is in the Top 15 in the nation, and they are very much in contention for a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It's not inconceivable that they could be a 2 seed if they finish the season really well. They'll be Seton Hall on Monday, followed by a road game at Cincinnati next Saturday.

Syracuse drops to 6-2 in Big East play with this loss, though their schedule eases up after a really brutal two week stretch. They'll play Notre Dame on Monday, followed by a home game against St. John's the following Sunday.

Air Force 70, #22 San Diego State 67
It's going to be a while before I can get used to this quasi-uptempo Air Force offense under Dave Pilipovich. They run when they see an advantage and they're aggressive and their games are fun to watch, other than their play-by-play announcer, who never goes 30 seconds without screaming his brains out. The Falcons led almost the entire game here, but San Diego State fought back hard and made this a game in the final minute. Air Force hit four consecutive free throws in the final 90 seconds, though San Diego State had one final possession down by three points. Jamaal Franklin and James Rahon both got a three-pointer off, but neither hit, and Air Force hung on for a massive program win.

Air Force is now 12-6 overall and 5-2 in the Mountain West, with this being their first big win and without any really bad losses. They are 3-6 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI that is still 70th, and with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should be in that vicinity as well when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They're a bubble team right now, though I think it's pretty clear that they'd be in the NIT if the season ended now. One big win isn't enough. If they go 10-6 in Mountain West play then they'll have work to do in the MWC tournament to earn a Tournament bid. If they can get to 11-5 then they'll be in really good shape. Their next game will on Wednesday, at New Mexico.

San Diego State drops to 4-3 in the Mountain West and 16-5 overall. They have an easier week coming up, with home games against Boise State (Wednesday) and Fresno State (Saturday). They should be safe for an at-large bid if they finish 10-6 or better.

Utah 58, Colorado 55
Utah almost had a horrific collapse in this game. They led by 22 points with 12 minutes left, but completely lost their composure in the final minutes. A steal and layup under the basket by Andre Roberson cut the lead to one with 1:45 to go, the third straight Utah possession to end in a turnover, and it seemed inevitable that Utah was going to blow this game. But they managed to get the ball across midcourt on their next possession, where Jarred DuBois was fouled and hit both free throws. Glen Dean hit a pair of free throws later, and Utah managed to win this game, despite the fact that they had 5 turnovers and 0 made field goals in the final 10:30 of the game.

On January 3rd, when Colorado lost that heartbreaker to Arizona (on a call that most people believe was blown on the Sabatino Chen buzzer beater) they had only lost to quality opponents, and had already taken out Baylor and Colorado State. Their RPI was sitting at 4th in the nation. And while that RPI rating seemed pretty clearly inflated, Colorado certainly looked like a pretty safe NCAA Tournament team. But they have now fallen to 4-5 in Pac-12 play, without a single quality conference win to go with bad losses to Washington, Arizona State and Utah.

Colorado is now 5-6 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is still an inflated 24th, but their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is going to tumble to near 45th. They're a bubble team, and probably need to win six of their final nine games (to get to 10-8) to be in good shape for an at-large bid heading into the Pac-12 tournament. Their remaining schedule, unfortunately, is pretty tough (by Pac-12 standards, at least). And that difficult schedule begins with a road game at Oregon on Thursday.

It would be hard to find a team more owed of a win like this. Utah came into this game a brutal 0-7 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. This win only moves them to 2-7 in conference play, but they're better than their record. Don't be shocked if they do some more work as a conference spoiler before this season ends. Next week they'll be on the road to face the two Oregon schools.