W-3.5 BP68

The biggest change in my new bracket is probably at the top. Indiana is the new clear favorite in the Big Ten, so they move up to the #2 spot overall. Their resume is obviously stronger than Florida's, but I have Indiana at #2 overall simply because their path to winning the Big Ten title is much more difficult. Florida could potentially be a double-digit favorite in every SEC tournament game. And if they sweep the SEC titles, it's extremely unlikely that they won't be a 1 seed. I still think that the Big Ten will likely get a second 1 seed, but at this point I have to give the second top seed to Michigan State. Michigan drops to a 2 seed.

At the bottom of the bracket, I made two changes to the Field of 68. Alabama moves in as the final at-large team, replacing Maryland. Meanwhile, Stony Brook replaces Vermont as the new favorite in the America East.

Only three teams have been eliminated from at-large contention since Sunday: Georgia, Santa Clara and Utah State. That leaves 44 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. Michigan State

2. DUKE (ACC)
2. Michigan
2. Miami (Fl)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)

3. Syracuse
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Georgetown
3. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

4. Wisconsin
4. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State
4. Pittsburgh

5. Kansas State
5. Marquette
5. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
5. Cincinnati

6. New Mexico
6. NC State
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. Butler

7. San Diego State
7. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
7. Missouri
7. Notre Dame

8. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
8. St. Louis
8. UNLV

9. Baylor
9. CREIGHTON (MVC)
9. Illinois
9. Oregon

10. Iowa State
10. UCLA
10. Oklahoma
10. Wichita State

11. Iowa
11. Kentucky
11. Virginia
11. Ole Miss

12. Colorado
12. St. Mary's
12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. La Salle
12. Alabama

13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)
13. DENVER (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. HARVARD (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. IONA (MAAC)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Temple, Villanova, Boise State, California, Arizona State

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Charlotte, Saint Joseph's, St. John's, Southern Miss, Akron, Stanford, Arkansas, Tennessee, BYU, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Florida State, Dayton, UMass, Xavier, Providence, Purdue, Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Wyoming, Texas A&M

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Rutgers, Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, UTEP, Tulane, Detroit, Illinois State, Nevada, USC, Washington, LSU, North Dakota State, New Mexico State