Wake Forest Knocks Off Miami

Wake Forest 80, #2 Miami 65
I talked about this game after Miami squeaked by Virginia. The reality is that Miami has not been playing particularly well the past couple of weeks. I think it's the weight of expectations, and the pressure surrounding their big winning streak, more than anything. They might start playing better now that they've finally got that first ACC loss. This loss also helps realign Miami's national media perception with where they really are as a team. The ACC is down this year, and Miami has also been lucky (4 of their 13 ACC wins came by four points or less), so their poll ranking has been going up each week due to typical poll biases, when they're really more like the 10th best team in the country.

Wake Forest shot the ball well here (7-for-12 behind the arc, with a 61.5 eFG%), but what really stood out to me was their post defense. They were very sound in the paint all day, standing straight up with their hands in the air and forcing Miami to take contested shots without fouling. The result was that Miami hit only 39.5% of their two-pointers, and earned only 13 free throw attempts.

Miami is still in the mix for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday, so this loss isn't completely devastating on that front. Winning at Duke next Saturday is now very important. With a win at Duke and then an ACC tournament title then they'll have a good case for a 1 seed. With a loss to Duke then they'll need help to get a 1 seed, even if they win the ACC tourney. But regardless, it's hard to see Miami falling below a 2 seed. Their next game will be on Wednesday, against Virginia Tech.

I've talked about the Jeff Bzdelik situation before, and so I don't want to keep repeating myself. You can click here for my recent thoughts on him. His program has been getting better continuously for his three years at the helm, and this is their best win yet. Their Pomeroy and Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings should move into the Top 125 for the first time. As young as his team is, they can only be better next season, which means it's not implausible that the Demon Deacons could actually contend for an at-large bid next season. At 5-9 in ACC play now, they'll go on the road next, to face Florida State on Tuesday.

St. Louis 65, #15 Butler 61
Jim Crews has got St. Louis playing like a prototypical Rick Majerus squad. They take care of the ball, they limit opposition threes, they play tough defense, and just make it very unpleasant to face them. It's the same formula that you are seeing from Wisconsin this season, another team that is overperforming their raw talent level. No matter what type of talent you have on your team, you're almost impossible to beat if you don't turn the ball over and only allow the opponent two-point jumpers. Against VCU's havoc press (19.6 forced turnovers per game), the Billikens only turned the ball over 8 times. Here? Only 4 turnovers. So St. Louis was only 3-for-17 behind the arc, hit only 54% of their free throws and lost the rebounding battle... but still scored a respectable 1.03 PPP.

St. Louis has now won nine straight Atlantic Ten games. Only six teams all season have broken 1 PPP against them, and they now lead the A-10 with 0.91 PPP against in conference play. For the season they are 20th in the nation in raw defensive efficiency (0.88 PPP), 26th in offensive turnover percentage and 24th in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio. Like I said, if you're elite in those three areas, you're going to be tough to beat, whether you can shoot the ball or not.

The computers didn't view this is as a huge upset. Butler has now dropped to 52nd in Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. They are not in serious danger of falling to the bubble, though, with a 5-4 record against the RPI Top 50 and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is now 37th. They will play at VCU next Saturday, and even with a loss there they should be safe if they can win their final two regular season games (at UMass, vs Xavier). If they lose two of those three final games then they will need to win at least one game in the A-10 tournament just to be sure that they won't have to sweat out Selection Sunday.

St. Louis can lock up the 1 seed in the A-10 tournament with three wins in their final four games. Even two wins in their final four games should lock up an at-large bid. This win pushed their Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to 18th, and they'd have to fall out of the Top 30 to be even plausibly on the bubble. None of their remaining games are easy, though, beginning with St. Joe's on Wednesday and then a road game at George Washington next Saturday.

#21 Memphis 89, Southern Miss 73
This game was a rout, honestly. Memphis finished the first half on a 29-10 run, and never looked back. They led by as many as 23 points in the second half. The Southern Mississippi defense is the slow-paced version of VCU - they force a ton of turnovers, but are pretty putrid if they don't get a turnover. So this season they lead Conference USA in defensive turnover percentage (25.0% in conference play), but are allowing a very mediocre 1.27 PPP on possessions where they do not get a turnover. Memphis was clean enough here, committing only 13 turnovers in 75 possessions. Their ball handlers could get to the basket at will, and they finished with a 59.4 eFG% and 25 assists on 29 made baskets.

Memphis is the poor man's Miami. Like Miami, Memphis has been grinding through a massive winning streak in a conference that is down this season, and is moving up the Top 25 polls through inertia. They have won 18 straight games now, including 13 in conference play, though their wins over Southern Miss have been their only in the streak against an RPI Top 50 foe. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE has climbed up to 25th, though their resume is still vulnerable if they lose a couple of games down the stretch. The Tigers are only 2-3 against the RPI Top 50, and like I said, those two wins came over Southern Miss. They have a key game coming up on Tuesday at Xavier. With a win there then they can easily absorb a loss down the stretch without having to worry about the bubble.

Southern Miss has a nice won/loss record (19-7), conference record (10-3) and RPI (37th), but the reality is that they're not even on the bubble right now. You need to have quality wins to earn an at-large bid, and Southern Miss has yet to beat a team in the RPI Top 80, while they simultaneously have bad losses to Central Florida and New Mexico State. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is sitting near 70th, which is well out of consideration, even for a team with a few quality wins. And unfortunately for them, their only remaining chance for a quality win will likely be against Memphis in a hypothetical Conference USA tournament title game. And so for those reasons, the odds of a Southern Miss at-large bid are awfully small. They'd have to win every remaining game until that CUSA title game, play Memphis really close, and then get a lot of help. Their odds of winning the Conference USA tournament outright are higher than their odds of an at-large bid.