2013 Conference Tournament Previews: Part IV

For the complete list of conference tournament previews, as well as a schedule of when all of these games will be played, please click here.

Big Sky:
One of the most  impressive teams this season is Weber State. Expected to take a step back after the loss of superstar Damian Lillard, the team actually has gotten better. They went 24-5 overall and 18-2 in conference play, along with wins over Dayton and Oral Roberts. They've been powered by an outside shooting attack that leads the nation in 3P% (42.2%). Three of their starters shoot 44% or better behind the arc. But they are not one-dimensional either. Weber State's 0.91 PPP allowed in Big Sky play makes them the best defense in the conference, too.

The Big Sky regular season champion was not Weber State, though. It was Montana. They went 19-1 and will have home court advantage throughout the tournament (as well as a bye to the semifinals). Injuries are a concern, though. Star Will Cherry has been out with an injury, though they are hopeful that he'll be back for the Big Sky tournament. Mathis Ward, another starter, is out for the season. Also, despite winning the regular season title, their overall efficiency margin was significantly worse than Weber State. The one stat which stands out is that while Weber State and Montana split their regular season series, Montana won by 2 points at home but lost by 24 points on the road.

If there's a sleeper in this tournament it's probably a Northern Colorado team that has won 6 of their last 7 conference games and finished the season third in efficiency margin. But realistically, we're headed for another title game between Weber State and Montana. And the question is, can Montana's home court advantage overcome the reality that Weber State is the better team. And the answer is, I don't think so. When they beat Weber State by 2 points at home they were at full strength and got a massive game from Will Cherry (28 points) while Weber State's outside shooters were uncharacteristically cold (3-for-14 behind the arc). In the rematch at Weber State, Cherry was held to 18, Weber State shot closer to their season average on 3s (47%) and the Wildcats won in a romp. And now, even if Cherry plays, he might not be in 100% game shape. Montana also has to worry about rebounding, which has been a serious problem since the Ward injury. So in my view, despite the tougher draw, Weber State is the favorite.

Big West:
The Big West featured an awfully tight four team race for the regular season title, with little to separate any of the contenders. Long Beach State finished on top, a game clear of Pacific. Cal Poly and UC Irvine are the 3 and 4 seed, respectively. Long Beach State did stumble a little bit down the stretch, losing three of their final four games, but I think it's worth noting that they did not lose a home conference game all season. Pacific is an interesting contender because of their extremely aggressive defense - they lead the conference in defensive turnover rate, but are last in defensive FTRate.

Meanwhile, Cal Poly has won 7 of their last 8 games, and has a very steady, experienced backcourt to help them in a hypothetical semifinal match-up with Pacific. UC Irvine, meanwhile, has 6 wins in their 7 games, which include wins over both Pacific and Long Beach State.

As you can probably figure out by now, I'm not going to have a strong feeling on the Big West tournament. These four teams are closer than the top of any conference other than the MAAC. You can't really go wrong with any of them. Long Beach State is my pick, more than anything, because I think they have the easiest draw.

Conference USA:
This will be the final season of Memphis in Conference USA, which means that this mediocre conference is going to get even worse. Memphis has been dominating the conference ever since they got left behind during the last Big East expansion. This season, they enter the Conference USA tournament the clear favorite, and also the conference's only likely NCAA at-large team. Southern Miss is in the bubble conversation, but they'll probably need to get to the CUSA title game to have a real argument there.

Southern Miss certainly has the talent to upset Memphis. I wouldn't like their chances, though. There's a reason why they got swept during the regular season, and it's because they could not stop penetration by the Memphis backcourt. The Memphis offense involves a lot of one-on-one offense by guys who are awfully athletic, which means that they will tear apart defenses that don't rotate well on defense. Southern Miss is one of those teams. Memphis might actually be more concerned about a title game against the 3 seed, UTEP. UTEP is much more capable of slowing down the Memphis offense, and lost by only two points to Memphis last week.

Outside of those three teams, I don't think there is a serious threat to Memphis. If there's a sleeper team, I'll go with Houston. They closed the season with three wins, including an impressive road win at Tulane. And they are only two weeks removed from playing Memphis very competitively on the road. But they'd likely have to get through UTEP, Southern Miss and Memphis to win the title. So, no. Memphis is the heavy favorite.

Mountain West:
The most intriguing game in this tournament might end up being the quarterfinal match-up between Boise State and San Diego State. While New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV are all safe NCAA Tournament teams, both San Diego State and Boise State are on the bubble. You can make a good case that both teams would be in the Tournament if the season ended now (SDSU certainly is in the Field of 68 at the moment), but either team will have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they fall in the quarterfinals.

The favorite in the Mountain West tournament, I think, has to be UNLV. There is very little to separate the play of the top Mountain West teams, and UNLV will be at home. They have a history of playing well in these Mountain West tournaments in Vegas. That said, a potential semifinal of UNLV vs CSU and UNM vs SDSU would be an awfully fun situation where every team would have an almost equal chance.

Can any team I didn't mention yet make a run at this thing? Air Force would be the obvious pick, since they were the sixth best team in the conference and beat New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise State already this season. The problem is, all of those wins came at home, where Air Force is always really tough to play. They went 7-1 at home in conference play this season, and 1-7 on the road. And they will have to open in what will effectively be a true road game at UNLV. So no, I would be pretty shocked if an auto bid was "stolen" at the Mountain West tournament.

SWAC:
Believe it or not,  this was the best the SWAC has been in at least a decade. And yes, the league still stinks and is the worst of every conference in the nation. But, hey, they beat an RPI Top 100 team! Southern took down Texas A&M, who ended the season (just barely) in the RPI Top 100. During the previous six seasons, if you can believe it, the SWAC went 0-237 against RPI Top 100. More importantly, the league actually had two teams in the Pomeroy Top 200. That doesn't sound like an accomplishment, but the SWAC hadn't had one team in the Pomeroy Top 200 since 2005-06 Southern. Man, the SWAC sucks...

Anyway, one of those Pomeroy Top 200 teams (Texas Southern) is ineligible for the postseason, so the other (Southern) enters the SWAC tournament as the favorite. They also will get the sole bye to the semifinals, which makes them an even heavier favorite. Oh, and the third best team (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is also ineligible for the postseason and will not be playing. That makes Southern's top contender the new 2 seed - a Jackson State team that went 9-9 and finished with an efficiency margin of +0.01 PPP in conference play.

In other words, do yourself a favor and skip the SWAC tournament. Unless you have a close family relative playing or coaching in this tournament, there is better basketball on television. Southern is the favorite to win.