Bubble Watch: Heading Into March 5th

This was inevitably going to be a slow night for the bubble, and so there was never going to be much change from yesterday's bubble watch. And in fact, while I was looking forward to trying out my new color-coding, I actually only made one change from yesterday: Baylor's loss to Texas dropped them from the bubble (check them out in red). Teams that move up will be in green... but that will have to wait for another day. Cincinnati doesn't move anywhere for their expected loss at Louisville.

We will get much more movement tomorrow. Iowa has a must-win game against Illinois, Ole Miss has a must-win against Alabama, and Boise State has a huge opportunity at UNLV. No matter what happens, there will be more than one team moving around tomorrow.

I want to again note how thin the bubble is right now. I have only 18 teams fighting for 11 spots, That may seem like a lot, but with almost two weeks until Selection Sunday and without any conference tournament action started yet, that's significantly smaller than usual. Speaking of conference tournaments: conference tournaments! The first game tips off at noon eastern time - only a little more than 12 hours away. I'm so ready.

Here we go. The bubble watch as we head into March 5th:


Tournament locks (19 teams):
Duke, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Gonzaga

Automatic bids yet to be awarded (31, of which 24 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC)

Teams that look safe (11):
North Carolina, NC State, St. Louis, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Memphis, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, UCLA, Missouri

Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (7):
Butler, VCU, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oklahoma, Creighton, Oregon

The Bubble (18 teams for 11 bids):
Maryland, Virginia, La Salle, UMass, Temple, Villanova, Iowa, Iowa State, Wichita State, Boise State, California, Colorado, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech

Best of the rest (6):
St. John's, Baylor, Southern Miss, Akron, Arizona State, Arkansas

Long shots (14):
Charlotte, Richmond, St. Joseph's, Xavier, Florida State, Providence, UTEP, Air Force, Stanford, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee, BYU