Remember, the links at the bottom of this post will not all go live right away. It will take time to put all of these previews together. I will have them all live in time for you to finish your bracket. Just be patient. The first region should be posted (Selection) Sunday evening.
I want to give a quick explanation of what these previews are, because they're different from what you'll see basically anywhere else:
First, the breakdowns here are going to be based on tempo-free statistics. You will hear a lot about PPP (points per possession), OR%/DR% (offensive/defensive rebounding percentages), eFG% (effective field goal percentage) and more. A lot of the teams that the general media tells us are better at offense or defense or rebounding are actually not - for example, the media tends to confuse teams that play at slow tempos with teams that are bad offensively.
Second, I am going to use the modern statistical perspective on how to judge teams. So if you believe that a team being 11-2 in games decided by five points or less is only because they're super clutch, and not because they're super lucky, then you are wrong. That's not the attitude I will be taking here.
Third, I am not going to just fill in the bracket. I don't expect anybody reading this to agree with me on every pick. So I will talk about a variety of match-ups in the later rounds. For example, if I project the 3 seed to knock off the 2 seed in a region, I will still give you my thoughts on the 2 seed versus the 1 seed, in case you disagreed with me on the previous round.
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In addition to picking the winners of every game, I will also be putting up daily posts where I project games against the lines. Those will not be posted on this page - just look for them on the blog. Please don't gamble illegally or use money you cannot afford to lose. I just use that post to break down each game. Of course, if I do help you win some money in your Tournament pool at work and you'd like to throw a bit my way (since this website will always be free), I'd certainly appreciate that. There's a donate button on the right.
How accurate are these previews? Well, last year I nailed 7 of 8 Elite 8 teams and the entire Final Four, though I did not pick the eventual champion correctly. That's no guarantee of the future, of course. There's too much randomness in the NCAA Tournament to nail the Final Four every season.
Against the spread, I actually had a bad year last season because I got killed on a bunch of close Round of 68 games. In the end I was 30-35-2 against the spread. In 2011 I was 40-26-1 against the spread. In 2010 I was 35-25-3 against the spread.
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Anyway, let's get to these previews:
East
West
South
Midwest
Final Four
Posts
8 comments:
I'm excited for the previews.
Especially want to hear how this is the year we'll see a 16-1 upset. Southern/ Zaga perhaps (1st SWAC team to ever win a game as well??).
Also, odds for VCU to make the final four?
I haven't started breaking down VCU's region, so I can't answer that question yet. I actually think the 16 seeds are really soft this year. We had some potential two weeks ago, but we had several terrible teams steal their conference's auto bid (Liberty, LIU, North Carolina A&T, etc), which really watered down the 16 seeds.
Jeff, I'd just like to thank you for all the work you do. For the last two years you've helped me immensely pick games, and I firmly believe you are more knowledgeable/do a better job than any of the big time NCAA predictors out there. Unfortunately, I feel like I can't tell me friends about you or this blog, or else I'd be spoiling my advantage, but I'll definitely send some money your way if I win any!
Haha, thanks.
I was just thinking that Anonymous! I've been following you Jeff , for 3 years on here and you're better than these ESPN predictors. You should get a job with them. I picked Louisville last year to go to the final four because of you. I got ripped on for that pick for some reason. I won my board though.
Ill send some money this year.
But if I worked for ESPN I couldn't make Jalen Rose jokes on twitter anymore, haha.
Same as the people above, I have read your blog for 3 years and love it! You get so detailed and I feel I can talk intelligently about the tourny b/c of what you share. Thank you for everything!
Oh and I don't share it either...sorry. Can't tell where the hidden gold is!
Ditto. I've been reading for 3 years also & I've told no one! I enter your picks in a pool every year and a second bracket with my variations. Almost 500 entrants last year and your Louisville pick made me the only person with all 4 teams in the Final Four. Unfortunately, we didn't pick Kentucky so I dropped to 13th after the final game. When I get in the money - you will too!
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