Complete Midwest Region Analysis

Opening Thoughts:

As we were all sitting around in the half hour or so between the end of the Big Ten title game and the Selection Show on CBS, there were really two hot conversations happening in social media. The first how mindbogglingly clueless the CBS analysts were. Charles Barkley is highly entertaining, but he clearly hasn't watched a college basketball game in 20 years. Seth Davis and Doug Gottlieb watch a lot of college basketball, but they are entirely on the wrong side of every modern advance in sports analysis, so almost every "fact" they give is wrong. So we all had fun making fun of that on twitter (here, here, here and here).

The second debate was whether Indiana or Louisville would get the overall #1 seed and pseudo-homecourt advantage in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in Indianapolis. When we found out that Louisville got it, that seemed like a huge break for them. But over the next hour we learned how wrong we were. Indiana got an absolute cakewalk in the East region. I've seen some computer metrics putting them at over a 50% chance to make the Final Four, which is awfully high for any team in any year. Meanwhile, Louisville is stuck in the unquestioned Region Of Death.

Louisville is one of the three strongest teams in the country, but they are stuck with the strongest 2 seed (Duke might just be the best team in the country right now), the second-strongest 3 seed (if Michigan State was in the South as a 3 seed they might be my Final Four pick), and a ridiculously strong 4 seed (St. Louis has been incredible the past two months - seriously, look at their schedule). On top of that, Oklahoma State is a 5 seed that would be a sleeper team in any other region, Creighton is a 7 seed that is the best shooting team in the nation with one of the two best pure scorers in the country, and oh yeah, we have a Pomeroy top 20 team (Missouri) as a nine seed. And I didn't even mention the best rebounding team in the nation (Colorado State) or Matthews Dellavedova.

What you have to remember not just in this region but also when picking the Final Four games is just now nasty this region is. Whoever you have coming out of this region, note that they will be playing a team in the Final Four (my pick is Ohio State) that has a way easier path. So unless you think the winner of the Midwest is an overwhelming favorite, you need to protect your bracket by picking them to lose in the Final Four. But we'll get to that in my Final Four preview. Let's break down this region first.

First/Second Round:

My Picks:

11. Middle Tennessee over 11. St. Mary's
16. Liberty over 16. North Carolina A&T

1. Louisville over 16. Liberty
8. Colorado State over 9. Missouri
4. St. Louis over 13. New Mexico State
5. Oklahoma State over 12. Oregon
3. Michigan State over 14. Valparaiso
11. Middle Tennessee over 6. Memphis
7. Creighton over 10. Cincinnati
2. Duke over 15. Albany

Thoughts:

I spent a lot of time talking about how ridiculously undeserving Middle Tennessee was to get an at-large bid. It was a cross between tossing a bone to a small conference school and being blinded by RPI. Middle Tennessee's resume is probably the weakest to ever earn an at-large bid. But that said, the fact that their resume stunk has to do with them playing bad teams in conference all season. They are actually a really good team - 32nd in Pomeroy and 44th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. I do think it was a real cop-out for the Selection Committee to put them up against St. Mary's, though. If you're going to put in two mid-majors that didn't really beat anybody all season (St. Mary's did get a win over Creighton, but otherwise their resume is very similar to Middle Tennessee's), at least put them up against major conference teams or mid-major teams that had a lot of quality wins (like Boise State) as a point of contrast.

Anyway, I do think that Middle Tennessee matches up well with the St. Mary's offense. The Gaels want to get the ball in the paint and run almost everything through Matthew Dellavedova, but Middle Tennessee has an array of strong perimeter defenders. Middle Tennessee can be beaten with size in the post, but St. Mary's doesn't usually take advantage of mismatches in the paint. Brad Waldow could have a big game if that's the way that Randy Bennett chooses to go, but I'd expect to see the Matthew Dellavedova Show. Middle Tennessee's offense is predicated on working hard for open shots - they work the ball around the court aggressively. They are vulnerable against teams that play pressure defenses and can turn them over (Middle Tennessee was 204th in the nation in offensive turnover rate despite the soft schedule), but the Gaels are not a team that will achieve that. Throw in the fact that the Gaels are going to have to go cross-country to play a game on basically 48 hours notice, while Middle Tennessee can drive the 300 or so miles to Dayton if they wish, and I think Middle Tennessee has the advantage here.

Meanwhile, North Carolina A&T vs Liberty is the battle of the resistible force against the moveable object. Pomeroy ranks North Carolina A&T's offense 317th in the nation, and Liberty's defense 303rd. I don't want to waste a lot of time breaking down a game between teams that will lose by 30+ to Louisville in their next game, and which nobody has to pick in their brackets, so I will give the edge to Liberty. Why? North Carolina A&T's halfway decent defense is weakest on the perimeter. Liberty is a three-point oriented offense that hit 37% of their three-pointers during the season. That's as much as I'm getting into that game.

As I said, Louisville is going to stroll into the Round of 32. Don't sweat the Duke game either. But Valparaiso over Michigan State is a popular upset pick, so I want to talk about that game. On first glance, I get the appeal. Valparaiso's offense relies on scoring a lot of points in and around the paint with duel big men Kevin Van Wijk and Ryan Broekhoff, while Michigan State was only 9th in the Big Ten in 2P% defense. But you can't exactly compare Horizon League 2P% stats to the Big Ten. There are a lot of really premier interior defenders (and scorers) in the Big Ten, and Michigan State still has several really athletic bigs that will be able to get very physical with Van Wijk and Broekhoff, neither of whom is huge by Big Ten standards. For example, Van Wijk physically dominated most of the Horizon League in the paint, but he will be giving up 30 pounds to Derrick Nix.

At the same time, Valparaiso's defense will struggle with Michigan State. Valpo's defense is very perimeter oriented - they had the best 3P% and 3PA/FGA ratio defense in Horizon League play, but their paint defense wasn't nearly as good and they got killed on the defensive glass at times. Michigan State is not an outside shooting team - they were 11th in the Big Ten in offensive 3PA/FGA ratio, and are going to really get after second chance opportunities in the paint. Valparaiso is playing their best basketball of the season now and they absolutely have a real chance to beat Michigan State, but the Spartans are the favorites.

St. Louis is one of the strongest 4 seeds in recent memory while New Mexico State is a weak 13 seed. So right off the bat, do not pick the upset there. In addition, New Mexico State doesn't exactly have an explosive offense - they scored just 1.04 PPP in a down WAC and did not achieve 1.1 PPP or more against a Pomeroy Top 100 opponent all season. And they haven't seen anything like the aggressive perimeter defense that St. Louis is going to throw at them. You'll certainly want to pop this game on for a few minutes if you haven't seen Sim Bhullar play before, but only because this will be your only chance until next season. The Billikens should win easily.

No team has gone from overrated to underrated faster than Oregon. All season they were ranked way too high by the human polls - they spent a couple of weeks around the Top Ten despite sitting near 40th in the computers. It got absurd how much it took for the pollsters to drop them. But they did go 12-6 in the Pac-12 and won the Pac-12 tournament. I assumed that they'd end up a 7 or 8 seed, and a soft one at that, and I'd be able to dispatch them without problem. But as a 12 seed, surely angry at the position the Selection Committee put them into, they're suddenly a dangerous underdog. Oklahoma State vs Oregon will be a fairly even battle between two teams that sport excellent defenses but sometimes struggle to score.

The key for Oklahoma State is going to be ball handling. Oregon plays an aggressive defense that led the Pac-12 in defensive turnover rate and likes to get a lot of offense in transition, but other than that is downright awful offensively. They were dead last in the Pac-12 in offensive turnover rate, 2nd to last in 3P% and 3rd to last in eFG%. There's no way that they'll achieve 1 PPP unless they get a ton of fast break layups, and don't think that Marcus Smart won't force a bunch of turnovers himself. Oklahoma State has three good offensive weapons, and should be able to get Markel Brown going. There's a lot of talk about Dominic Artis being back, but he's really one of the most overrated players in the Pac-12. The team hasn't played any better with him (yes, they won the Pac-12 tournament, but it came against a lucky/soft draw and right on the heels of embarrassing losses to Colorado (by 23) and Utah. When Artis returned to the lineup Oregon was 39th in the Pomeroy ratings. They currently sit 43rd. So go with Oklahoma State - Oregon will just be way too limited offensively.

Memphis is a really soft 6 seed. They deserved the seed because their resume was strong (they are 30-4 and went 16-0 in Conference USA play), but they weren't nearly as good as their record suggested. They went 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less or in overtime, which is why they are only 39th in Pomeroy and 33rd in the Sagarin PREDICTOR. In fact, Pomeroy rates both Middle Tennessee and St. Mary's better than Memphis (Sagarin agrees on St. Mary's, but has Memphis a bit better than Middle Tennessee). In other words: Upset Alert.

How do the match-ups look? Well, the Memphis offense is predicated on one-on-one attacks from the perimeter. Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson and Chris Crawford are all really good at beating their man off the dribble. When the defense has to come over and help, they're all good at dumping the ball to an open teammate for an easy shot. That's how they led Conference USA in assist ratio despite the fact that they don't actually pass the ball that well. This is a bit of a problem for Middle Tennessee. They do have a good, quick perimeter defense, but their help defense is poor. If a Memphis perimeter player beats their man off the dribble, the Tigers will likely score or get fouled. That said, Memphis is sloppy with the ball. As I said, they don't pass the ball well, despite that assist rate. They were 9th in Conference USA in offensive turnover rate, and Middle Tennessee will be able to exploit that.

Offensive, Middle Tennessee is also going to look to attack the Memphis perimeter defense to get to the basket, and this is where Memphis has problem. Like Middle Tennessee, they have poor help defense and will give up a lot of easy layups. Middle Tennessee also can strike from the outside, hitting 39% of their threes this season. And so in the end, we're looking at two teams that mirror each other pretty well. Memphis is the more talented team, but Middle Tennessee is better coached. Memphis is an atrocious team at the fundamentals of basketball, and that's usually a problem in the NCAA Tournament. Throw in the fact that (and I know this is an unmeasurable intangible, but....) it seems like the last team in the Field of 68 that gets derided by the press all week tends to show up and play really well, so I give the slight edge to Middle Tennessee.

St. Mary's would be another tough match-up for Memphis. The Gaels defense isn't great, but they do a good job of stopping dribble penetration and they defend the glass well (5th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage). They're going to limit the easy opportunities for Memphis, which often causes the sloppy Tigers to rush bad shots. And I think Memphis would have a heck of a time dealing with Matthew Dellavedova. He's not just a great scorer but also a really nice passer, and unless the Memphis defensive rotations are sharp (which they never are), Dellavedova will have plenty of assists off of his own penetration.

Creighton/Cincinnati is a really interesting contrast in styles. Cincinnati plays a strong defense (Pomeroy rates them 15th best in the nation), but their offense is pretty terrible. Sean Kilpatrick can occasionally carry the team with a 25-35 point game, but the rest of their offense is atrocious. They haven't scored 1.1 PPP in a game since the calendar year 2012. Meanwhile, Creighton is the best shooting team in the nation but doesn't play a lick of defense. Here are the updated numbers for the stat I've been giving all year: Creighton is 2-6 when finishing a game with an eFG% under 52%, but 25-1 when finishing with an eFG% of 52% or better. And they've had some incredible shooting games - they've had an eFG% over 70% five times this season, including an absurd 81.9 eFG% in their regular season finale against Wichita State, the second best shooting performance by any Division I team in any game all season (if you're wondering, Southeast Missouri  had an 83.3 eFG% against Austin Peay).

So what budges in that game? I think it's Cincinnati's defense. First of all, their defense isn't quite as overwhelming as you think it is when you drill down into the data a little bit. They're good at not fouling and also led the Big East in defensive rebounding percentage, but they were actually only 9th in the Big East in defensive eFG% in conference play (46.5%). The defensive rebounding and lack of fouling won't really help them against a jump shooting offense that won't miss a lot of shots and doesn't care about getting to the free throw line. And as limited as the Creighton offense is, Cincinnati just hasn't scored on anybody. They have terrible shooters, and have been held below 0.86 PPP in 6 of their last 11 games. They have faded down the stretch, and if Creighton gets hot shooting the ball at all, the Bearcats simply do not have the firepower to match them. Unless Sean Kilpatrick scores 30+, Creighton will move on.

Meanwhile, this is a really unfair draw for Colorado State. They were a sleeper team coming into the Tournament. They were arguably the best team in the Mountain West (their efficiency margin of +0.11 PPP was very narrowly the best in conference play), and I always like teams that are really great at something (Colorado State is the best rebounding team in the nation, finished 1st in DR% and 2nd in OR%). But this draw is brutal. An 8 seed is pretty unfair (how they got seeded below San Diego State is a mystery to everybody), and they got stuck playing a really, really good 9 seed. Missouri is rated among the 20 best teams in the nation by both Pomeroy and Sagarin. And should they somehow win that game they'll be facing Louisville, arguably the best team in the country.

When you play Colorado State, rebounding is always going to be an issue. Missouri held their own this year, though. They finished 7th in the nation in OR% and led the SEC in DR%. Colorado State should win the rebounding battle, but it shouldn't be an annihilation. Both of these teams are relatively poor on the perimeter. Neither team shoots the ball that well or defends the perimeter particularly well. And in a sense, this game will probably be decided early on. Missouri is a team that really struggles when they're behind. Phil Pressey tends to try to bring his team back himself, and becomes a shooter rather than a distributor. But if Missouri gets into the lead then Pressey does a great job involving his teammates, and Missouri led the SEC with 76% free throw shooting in conference play. I think Missouri is the better team, but I think there are a lot of red flags here. The fact that they went 2-8 in road games this season with the two wins coming against Pomeroy 200+ opponents (South Carolina and Mississippi State) is a real problem. And I think Colorado State's physicality and aggressiveness in the paint  is a problem for a Missouri team that really struggles when in foul trouble (there's a massive drop off in talent from the starters to the bench). So for those reasons I'm giving the slight edge to Colorado State.

Third Round:

My Picks:

1. Louisville over 8. Colorado State
4. St. Louis over 5. Oklahoma State
3. Michigan State over 11. Middle Tennessee
2. Duke over 7. Creighton

Thoughts:

While Louisville will have a cakewalk in their Round of 64 game, the Region of Death really gets going in the Round of 32. Colorado State would be a really interesting contrast of styles. Colorado State does not have a great backcourt (although Dorian Green is a quality player), and it's easy to see Louisville forcing a bunch of turnovers and getting a lot of transition baskets. At the same time, Louisville's defensive rebounding is poor (11th in the Big East in defensive rebounding percentage), which means that Colorado State is going to get a ton of second chance opportunities and easy baskets for themselves.

Offensively, I think Louisville will have an advantage scoring in the paint. Neither of these teams has a lot of outside shooters, but Louisville tends to get a lot of shots around the rim, and Colorado State's interior defense is really not that great. They don't have any elite shot blockers like Louisville has in Gorgui Dieng, who will be key in preventing any Colorado State second opportunities from becoming easy baskets. In addition, the Cardinals have done a great job late in the year of getting a shooting spark off the bench from Luke Hancock, which should open up the Colorado State defense a bit. Louisville will be able to pack the paint against Colorado State, making it more difficult for the Rams to get easy shots. Throw in the fact that Colorado State has nobody who can guard either Russ Smith or Peyton Siva (and Siva has really been coming on in the latter part of the season) and I think Louisville has the advantage here. But not by much.

If Missouri gets past Colorado State, I think they're an easier match-up for Louisville. They cannot exploit Louisville's poor defensive rebounding to the same extent, and Phil Pressey is going to be really unhappy with what Russ Smith does to him. The Cardinals could end up getting a whole lot of offense in transition. Missouri's defense is aggressive, but not great in rotations, and Louisville has the personnel to exploit that. So Louisville would be the favorite over Missouri as well.

A game between St. Louis and Oklahoma State is a tough one to pick between two potential sleepers. Both teams are strong for their seed line, and both are playing their best basketball of the season now, though SLU's progression through the season has been starker. The Billikens have lost precisely one game in regulation since November, and it was a road game at Temple. These teams match up well against each other as well. Both are excellent defensively but with holes offensively. Offensively, Oklahoma State has an advantage in that they do not depend on outside shooting, which St. Louis is superb at taking away. OSU will attack the paint, where Saint Louis is definitely a lot weaker defensively. The Billikens finished 13th in the A-10 in defensive FTRate, which is a problem against the second best offensive FTRate team in the Big 12. A lot is going to come down to which Marcus Smart shows up in this game. He's had some great games this season, and he's also had games where he smartly let Markel Brown (a more efficient offensive player) shoulder most of the offensive load. But he's also had games where he takes too many shots and tries to do too much himself, and if that happens then the Saint Louis perimeter defense will eat him alive.

Offensively, St. Louis mostly gets by just by being sound. They don't shoot the ball well at all and are a terrible offensive rebounding team. They want to get the ball near the rim to get easy shots and to get fouled. Oklahoma State does struggle at times with keeping opponents off the free throw line, but otherwise they should be in pretty good shape. And that is why picking this game is really difficult. In terms of match-ups, I actually think Oklahoma State is the better option here. They match up really well with what St. Louis does well and does not do well. But I can't pick against St. Louis for two reasons. First, the way they've played the past couple of months is just extremely impressive. They're such a smart and well-coached team. Additionally, SLU has the easier Round of 64 game. It's not that improbable that Oklahoma State could go down to Oregon. So I'm going to give the very slight edge to SLU, but I don't feel good about it.


I don't think there's any question that Middle Tennessee would have a lot of trouble scoring against Michigan State. Their offense relies on easy baskets off of turnovers and offensive rebounds, but Michigan State is not going to give a lot of those up. The Spartans were only 8th best in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate, but they're not playing Aaron Craft here, and their transition defense is strong. And the Middle Tennessee front line, while big by Sun Belt standards, is small compared to a typical Big Ten team. It's hard to see the Spartans getting out-rebounded here. Middle Tennessee plays strong perimeter defense, but they are softer in the paint. They were also 301st in the nation in defensive FTRate, which is going to be a problem against a powerful Michigan State front line that is going to be very aggressive near the basket.

If you have Memphis getting to this round, I do think that they'd give Michigan State some difficulties. The Spartans perimeter defense is not as quick as it's been in the past, and they will struggle with the speed and athleticism of the Memphis ball handlers. I would expect to see Michigan State force a lot of turnovers with their active hands near the paint (they led the Big Ten in defensive steals rate), which will be useful against a Memphis team that is loose with the ball. Defensively, I think Memphis would struggle with Michigan State's size. Memphis has a few big bodies they can turn to (Tarik Black, Shaq Goodwin and Adonis Thomas), but all typify the sloppy, undisciplined play for Memphis. Going with a big lineup would slow down the Memphis offense. The tiebreaker in this game is that Michigan State has the easier Round of 64 opponent, so you would want to go with the Spartans, but Memphis does have a realistic path to the Sweet 16 here.

Duke vs Creighton would be a very high scoring game, and an interesting contrast in styles, but I think it's a terrible match-up for Creighton. The Bluejays depend really heavily on outside shooting, but Coach K has specialized for years in preventing three-point opportunities for opponents. Duke led the ACC in both 3PA/FGA and 3P% defense. The best way to score on Duke - by far - is pounding them in the paint. Even with Ryan Kelly back their interior defense still leaves something to be desired and they are a poor defensive rebounding team (11th in the ACC in DR%). Doug McDermott is certainly a strong scorer in the post, but that's about it. Gregory Echenique is a physical monster who can score in the paint, but Creighton doesn't run a lot of offense through him. And Creighton is a very mediocre terrible offensive rebounding team (253rd in the nation in OR%). Throw in the fact that this Duke offense puts up points on everybody and the fact that Creighton's defense is very mediocre, and the only way Creighton can win this game is if they have one of those hot shooting days behind the arc. Coach K is going to be prepared to stop that, and I think he will. Duke should win fairly easily.

I don't think Cincinnati is really much of a concern for Duke, either. Their offense is poor, and perimeter oriented. Throw in the fact that they're not a good offensive rebounding team, and Duke should be able to keep their scoring to a minimum. Cincinnati's defense is good, but they struggle to keep opponents out of the paint at times, and Duke's offense scores on everybody. Even with Ryan Kelly injured they were the best offense in the ACC. So Cincinnati is going to have to find a way to score at least 1 PPP against Duke here to win, and I'd bet against that.

Sweet 16:

My Picks:
1. Louisville over 4. St. Louis
2. Duke over 3. Michigan State
Thoughts:
St. Louis is a popular upset pick over Louisville. And certainly it wouldn't be an earth-shattering upset. As good as Louisville is, they'll only be a 6 or 7 point favorite in Vegas, and St. Louis has been playing as well as almost any team in the nation the past few weeks. Prior to the bracket being announced, St. Louis was one of my sleeper Final Four picks. And in addition, their steady, disciplined approach that served them so well twice against VCU this season will serve them well against Louisville's very aggressive defense. But that said, there are several problems with taking St. Louis here.

First of all, the fact that St. Louis shoots poorly (33% on threes in A-10 play) is a big problem against a Louisville defense that is so strong in the paint. Louisville's one defensive liability is outside shooting, and the Billikens cannot exploit it. This means that St. Louis is going to have to win a slow, low-scoring game. If Russ Smith gets going, forget it. Louisville's only other big flaw is defensive rebounding, and again this is something that St. Louis cannot exploit (287th in the nation in OR%). In addition, all of the tiebreakers go to Louisville here. Louisville doesn't have a cakewalk against Colorado State, but it's still an easier path to the Sweet 16 than what St. Louis has to go through. I'd put the Billikens' odds at making the Sweet 16 below 50%. Also, this is a pseudo-home game for Louisville in Indianapolis. So despite being such a good team this season, a brutal draw for St. Louis is forcing me to project their run ending in the Sweet 16.

I don't think Oklahoma State would be as big of a test for Louisville as St. Louis. The Cowboys had specific match-up advantages over St. Louis that they don't have here. Louisville will be able to guard all three of Oklahoma State's quality backcourt scorers simultaneously, and is better than St. Louis at defending the paint and preventing free throws. Oklahoma State is also unable to exploit Louisville's poor defensive rebounding. Louisville is just a better all-around team, and they would be the clear favorites over Oklahoma State.

Duke vs Michigan State would not just be a really fun Sweet 16 game, but it's also a really likely Sweet 16 game. The Midwest is really strong, but partially because Duke and Michigan State are in it, and also much more in the top half than the bottom half. Louisville, St. Louis, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Colorado State and Oregon are all strong for their seeds, and picking which team is going to make the Elite 8 out of that mass of teams is a tough one. Duke and Michigan State have clearly softer routes to the Sweet 16.

To break down the actual game, I do think that Michigan State is going to have a hard time stopping the Duke offense. The Blue Devils have shooters all over the floor, and the Spartans were only 8th in the Big Ten in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio. Michigan State's defense is overall very good, but they lack great individual perimeter defenders. Either Seth Curry or Quinn Cook is likely to have a big game here. That said, Michigan State can exploit Duke's weaknesses. Duke's perimeter defense is great, but they have flaws on the interior. Duke actually only finished 10th in the ACC in defensive 2P%, though I think that's skewed in a big way by the absence of Ryan Kelly. Kelly's return has dramatically improved Duke's post defense. But Michigan State's size in the paint will be a problem for the Blue Devils, particularly if Mason Plumlee or Ryan Kelly gets in foul trouble.

I do think that Duke has the higher ceiling here. Michigan State will be able to have success in the paint, but they lack explosive scorers. Duke can put up tons of points, and against a soft Michigan State perimeter defense I expect them to. So Duke is the favorite.

Duke shouldn't be at all concerned about any of the other teams they could play in the Sweet 16. Memphis vs Duke would be a glaring mismatch between well-coached/fundamentals Duke and poorly-coached/incoherent Memphis. Middle Tennessee? Come on. The mismatch on the perimeter, on both sides of the floor, would be vast. And Duke has the defenders to keep Matthew Dellavedova in check. So really, the only team you should be putting in over Duke is Michigan State.

If you have Creighton knocking off Duke, they'd actually have a decent shot against Michigan State. The Spartans don't have a great paint defense and don't prevent threes either (8th in the Big Ten in defensive 3PA/FGA ratio). Creighton would have a chance to really put up a lot of points here. And that would then come back to the fact that Michigan State's offense is built for grinding games out and is not particularly explosive. The problem is, Michigan State has a much easier path to the Sweet 16 than Creighton does. So unless you think Creighton would be an overwhelming favorite over Michigan State, you should take the Spartans. And I don't think they'd be an overwhelming favorite.

Elite 8:

My Pick:
2. Duke over 1. Louisville

Thoughts:
At first glance of the draw, this region appears to have four truly elite teams that all would have an excellent chance at the Final Four if given the right draw. And I think that those four teams (Louisville, Duke, Michigan State and St. Louis) are the only four teams you should seriously consider to make the Final Four out of the Midwest. I'll run through all three match-up combinations.

First, Duke vs Louisville, which is the Elite 8 match-up I'm projecting. The big advantage for Duke is on offense. As good as Louisville's perimeter defense is, it had a gigantic flaw: three-point shooting. Louisville was only 8th in defensive 3PA/FGA and 9th in defensive 3P% in Big East play. Duke loves to shoot threes, and finished fourth in the nation with a 40.6 3P%. Duke also finished fourth in the nation in offensive turnover rate, as they have the backcourt personnel to deal with Louisville's pressure defense.

The problem for Louisville is that offensively, their only mismatch is on the glass. They shoot the ball poorly, and don't run a lot of offense through their big men. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva will be initiating most of the offense, and that is something which Duke is so good at preventing. And while this game will be a pseudo-home game for Louisville, Duke has another tiebreaker in their favor: an easier schedule. Duke has a really tough game with Michigan State, but that's basically it. They shouldn't have much trouble making the Sweet 16. Louisville has two very difficult games to get through, and could very easily drop in either the Round of 32 or the Sweet 16. So this again gets back to the fact that Louisville's "reward" as the overall #1 seed wasn't much of a reward. They will be near home, but their schedule is brutal. Unless you think Louisville is the clear favorite over Duke, you need to take Duke. And not only do I not think Louisville is the clear favorite, but I'd actually give Duke the slight edge even if this game came to pass. So Duke is my pick to the Final Four.

Duke vs St. Louis would definitely be a competitive game. The fact that St. Louis generates most of its offense near the basket and does not depend at all on outside shooting neutralizes Duke's biggest defensive advantage. And Duke loves to shoot threes, which St. Louis is really good at preventing. So while I wouldn't necessarily make the case for St. Louis over Duke, it can be made. But again if we look at schedule strength, St. Louis has at best a 25% chance to be in this game, while I'd put Duke's chances at close to 50%. So unless you see an overwhelming advantage for St. Louis, the tiebreak has to go to Duke.

If Michigan State and Louisville play each other, Michigan State's mediocre ball handling and the inconsistency of Keith Appling would become a real issue. The Spartans were 8th in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate, and Louisville could turn that into a ton of transition offense. Also, the Spartans would have an awfully tough time defending both Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. Offensively, Michigan State does not have outside shooters capable of exploiting Louisville's problems defending the arc. Also, the Spartans will allow themselves to get sped up by teams that want to run, which is a problem, because Michigan State will play much better in this game if it's a half court battle. So even though Michigan State has an easier path here than Louisville, I think Louisville would be the overwhelming head-to-head favorite.