Saturday, March 09, 2013

Oregon Stumbles Against Utah

Utah 72, #19 Oregon 62
This is the first time Utah has beaten a "ranked" team since they took down Illinois on November 27th, 2009, though I put "ranked" in quotes because Oregon is a ranked team only technically. Sagarin and Pomeroy both rate them as approximately the 50th best team in the country, and this not-particularly-good Utah team was only a four point underdog in Vegas. Regardless, it's a really nice way to celebrate Senior Day at Utah, and more evidence that this program is improving. Last season, Utah was arguably the most BCS conference team the nation has seen in over a decade. This season, they're 13-17 overall and with a Pomeroy rating inside the Top 150. Considering where they were, that makes them one of the most improved teams in the nation.

Oregon's problems this year have mostly been on the offensive side of the floor, but they actually scored at a halfway decent clip here (0.95 PPP). The problem was their defense, which allowed 1.11 PPP - their second worst defensive efficiency of the entire season. Utah pounded them in the paint, with Jason Washburn hitting 8-for-10 from the field (20 points and 13 rebounds) and Jordan Loveridge adding 14 points on 6-for-9 shooting.

Oregon, despite their ranking, is arguably a bubble team right now. They finish the regular season 12-6 in Pac-12 play and 8-7 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will be around 50th tomorrow. They will need to win at least one Pac-12 tournament game or they will have to sweat out Selection Sunday. The Ducks will be the 3 seed in Las Vegas, though the 6-11 match-up has not yet been set.

At 5-13 in Pac-12 play, Utah will be the 10 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. The 7 seed is not set, but if Utah wins that game then they will play California in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.

#13 Oklahoma State 76, #9 Kansas State 70
It's interesting to me how under-the-radar the Big 12 is this season. These two teams might be slightly overrated by the polls, but not by much. This is a big time game, yet almost nobody was paying attention outside of Big 12 country. Of the Top 8 or 9 conferences, I don't think there's any question that the Big 12 is the most underrated, and more likely than not a conference will surprise in the NCAA Tournament. As for this game, nothing less than the Big 12 title was at stake. With Kansas getting shocked by Baylor later this afternoon, Kansas State did get to back into a share of the Big 12 regular season title, but they are only the 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, locks up third place in the Big 12, and is on course for a potential rematch with Kansas State in the Big 12 semifinals.

Oklahoma State is a really dangerous team when their Big Three of Marcus Smart, Markel Brown and Le'Bryan Nash gets going, and all three played really well here. All three scored 16+ points, with Smart playing lock down defense on the defensive end. Rodney McGruder scored 22 points for Kansas State, but he didn't get a whole lot of help from his teammates. Angel Rodriguez had an awfully tough 3-for-16 day from the field.

A win in this game would have given Kansas State the outright Big 12 regular season title. With a Big 12 tournament title, they'd have had a really good case for a 2 seed. I think a 2 seed is out now, through a 3 or 4 seed is possible with a strong Big 12 tournament performance. Oklahoma State, at 5-5 against the RPI Top 50 and with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should climb into the Top 15 tomorrow, would likely be a 4 seed if the season ended now. They, too, can move up to a 3 seed with a strong Big 12 tournament appearance.

Oklahoma State will play Baylor in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. Kansas State will play the winner of Texas/TCU.

Florida State 71, NC State 67
This was a fairly ugly game, for both teams. The teams trudged to the free throw line for 62 attempts, and had significantly more turnovers (27) than assists (20). Neither team could box out either (25 total offensive rebounds, 28 total defensive rebound). There was no flow to this game at all. It's hard to find a big reason why a team won a game by four points, though Florida State was slightly better at the free throw line and slightly better at scoring in the paint. CJ Leslie had a terrible game for NC State, playing the whole game with foul trouble and finishing with only 5 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes. Leslie also had a tough gaffe when, with NC State down by 2 with under 40 seconds left, Leslie mishandled a pass on a fast break right out of bounds.

NC State finishes the regular season 22-9 overall and 11-7 in ACC play, with wins over Duke, North Carolina and Stanford, along with bad losses to Wake Forest and Florida State. They are only 6-8 against the RPI Top 100, though their RPI and Sagarin ELO_SCORE are both Top 30. There's no question that they'd be a Tournament team if the season ended now, but they'd only be a 7-9 seed, and they might have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they go one-and-done at the ACC tournament. They will either be the 4 or 5 seed, depending on what Virginia does against Maryland tomorrow.

At 9-9 in ACC play, Florida State will be the 6 seed in the ACC tournament. I believe that no matter what happens, they will open up the ACC tournament against Clemson.

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