Thursday, March 07, 2013

W-1.5 BP68

Well this is interesting... the entire Field of 68 is the same that I had in my last bracket projection. That doesn't happen often. There was plenty of movement up and down the bracket for teams, though.

I have to say, while the number of upsets this year is overplayed by the media (the media seems to be shocked every season by how many upsets there are), it's been a long time since we didn't have a single 1 seed close to locked up after conference tournaments had already tipped off. Even Indiana can fall to a 2 seed if they're not careful.

We did eliminate three teams from at-large contention since my last bracket projection: Richmond, UTEP and Texas A&M. That leaves 22 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Michigan State
2. Miami (Fl)

3. Georgetown
3. Oklahoma State
3. Michigan
3. Ohio State

4. Pittsburgh
4. Wisconsin
4. Kansas State
4. New Mexico

5. Syracuse
5. Marquette
5. North Carolina
5. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

6. UNLV (MOUNTAIN WEST)
6. Notre Dame
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

7. Colorado State
7. St. Louis
7. Missouri
7. NC State

8. San Diego State
8. Butler
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)
8. Oklahoma

9. Oregon
9. Cincinnati
9. Iowa State
9. Minnesota

10. Illinois
10. St. Mary's
10. Wichita State
10. Villanova

11. Kentucky
11. UCLA
11. La Salle
11. California

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. Virginia
12. Temple
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. Colorado
13. Iowa
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. PRINCETON (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Boise State, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UMass, Maryland, Baylor, Alabama, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Xavier, St. John's, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Stanford, Arkansas

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Florida State, Charlotte, St. Joseph's, Providence, Air Force, Washington, LSU,  BYU

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

New Mexico should probably be no worse than a #2, just by their RPI alone. If you looked at the top-4 RPI teams since 1994, 74 out of 76 teams received either a #1 or #2 seed (60 for #1, and 14 for #2).

If the committee's past selection process is any kind of guide, then the Lobos' current #2 RPI should get them a #1 or #2.

When 97 percent of the top-4 RPI teams have gotten a #1 or #2, New Mexico's looking very good for the same, and we haven't even mentioned their #4 SOS or their winning the #1 RPI league by a full three games.

Jeff said...

The problem is that every part of New Mexico's resume other than their RPI, which we know is fraudulent, says that they should be no higher than a 3 seed. In the past, the Selection Committee has shown that they are not RPI zombies, and they can see through a fake RPI, so I wouldn't take it as a given that just because they have a top 4 RPI that the Selection Committee would just mindlessly give them a 1 or 2 seed.