Sunday, March 03, 2013

W-2 BP68

Are you ready for conference tournaments? I am. To me, the final few days of Championship Week are the best of the season. I enjoy them even more than the NCAA Tournament itself, just because of the chaos of so many important games going on simultaneously. Anyway, I've already started to put together my first conference tournament previews, so look for those to be posted tonight (March 3rd).

As for this bracket, the teams really are starting to group up at both the top and bottom of the bracket. The only obvious 1 seed is Indiana... after that it's really going to come down to the conference tournaments. I made my best guesses about who will wins those, and where they'll end up. I still think there are nine teams with a realistic shot of a 1 seed - the top 9 teams in my bracket. It's been several years since the 1 seeds have been this wide open in the month of March.

At the bottom of the bracket, I knew that I was going to drop Ole Miss out of the bracket. The final two spots then came down to Iowa, Temple and Boise State. I'm sure some will disagree with me, but I went with Iowa and Temple. So that marks Temple as new in the bracket, with Ole Miss dropping out. Among the automatic bids, I moved Princeton in for Harvard for the Ivy title, and Southern in for Texas Southern for the SWAC.

Meanwhile, five teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Clemson, Dayton, Detroit, Indiana State and New Mexico State. That leaves 25 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid. Over the next two weeks, I'd expect that list to shrink to around ten.

Remember, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, rather than of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. INDIANA (BIG TEN)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. DUKE (ACC)

2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. Michigan State
2. LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST)
2. Miami (Fl)

3. Georgetown
3. Oklahoma State
3. Michigan
3. Wisconsin

4. Pittsburgh
4. Syracuse
4. Kansas State
4. Ohio State

5. New Mexico
5. St. Louis
5. Marquette
5. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

6. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
6. North Carolina
6. Notre Dame
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)

7. Butler
7. Missouri
7. UNLV
7. NC State

8. San Diego State
8. Minnesota
8. VCU (ATLANTAIC TEN)
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)

9. Oregon
9. UCLA
9. Illinois
9. Cincinnati

10. Oklahoma
10. Virginia
10. Iowa State
10. St. Mary's

11. California
11. Kentucky
11. Wichita State
11. Colorado

12. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (SUN BELT)
12. La Salle
12. Villanova
12. BELMONT (OVC)
12. AKRON (MAC)

13. Iowa
13. Temple
13. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
13. DENVER (WAC)
13. VALPARAISO (HORIZON)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. PRINCETON (IVY)
14. DAVIDSON (SOCON)

15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
15. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)

16. MERCER (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NEC)
16. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (BIG SOUTH)
16. NC CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Baylor, Boise State, Alabama, Ole Miss

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
UMass, Maryland, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana Tech

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
St. Joseph's, Xavier, St. John's, Southern Miss, Arizona State, Stanford

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Florida State, Charlotte, Richmond, Providence, UTEP, Air Force, Washington, LSU, Texas A&M, BYU
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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

You can't have Pitt and Syracuse as 4 seeds and Marquette a 5. Marquette is above both in the BE standings and swept Pitt and beat Syracuse.

Marquette is without question a top 3 seed in the NCAA tourney, maybe a 2 if they keep winning.

March 03, 2013 10:49 PM
Jeff said...

There is nothing that matters to the Selection Committee less than head-to-head. Maybe mascots or the colors of the uniforms. Fans get worked up by it, but it's irrelevant.

I think Marquette would be a 4 if the season ended now, but I dropped them to a 5 because I think they'll go one-and-done in the Big East tournament considering their most likely opponents.

That said, I do agree with you that Marquette could end up with a 2 seed if they keep winning. I said that very thing yesterday.

March 03, 2013 10:52 PM
David Mann said...

When I look at Iowa's resume, like you I see a team that should be in serious consideration for the tournament. I agree with you that the RPI is one of the worst judges of resume quality in existence (and Iowa is fine in Sagarin and such), but the selection committee for whatever reason still seems to care about it...and with their RPI in the high 80s here in early March, do you really think the committee will look past that? I know a decent finish could bring it up some, but it's hard to see it getting into the 50s or even the low 60s. Honestly, I think without something like a win over Michigan or Indiana in the Big 10 tourney, it will be at least in the 70s. Do you think they'll actually be willing to put a team with that RPI in the tourney, regardless of how deserving they are?

March 04, 2013 1:00 PM
Jeff said...

I am in no way saying that I think Iowa most likely makes the Tournament. The last few at-large teams in my bracket all have a <50% chance of getting in. Remember that there are always several Tournament bids stolen during Championship Week, either by automatic bids taken by unlikely teams, or by bubble teams going and winning a few games to dramatically improve their resume.

I just think that Iowa's chances are better than, say, Boise State. But I think that to have a decent chance they have to win their next three games. That means winning those final two regular season games and their first round Big Ten tournament game. If they can win a second game in the Big Ten tournament then their odds of an at-large bid will dramatically improve. But just one BTT win might be enough.

March 04, 2013 6:45 PM

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