2013-14 Preview: AAC

American Athletic Conference

Poor Memphis just can't get out of Conference USA. They finally think they've escaped to the Big East when the Big East pulls the football away Lucy-style, and Memphis ends up back in a conference with UCF, Houston and SMU. And it's just going to get worse a year from now, when Louisville and Rutgers will leave, to be replaced by Tulsa, Tulane and East Carolina. So while this year I'm breaking down the AAC as a major conference, there's a good chance that next year I'll demote them to "mid-major". There's just not a whole lot here. On the plus side, at least this conference has an awesome new name that totally isn't bland corporate nonsense. Who doesn't get excited about the American Athlzzzzzzzzzz.....

Let's pep things up by talking about the defending National Champions, Louisville. And since it looks like Russ Smith is going pro, let me say one last time just how underrated Russ Smith was this past season. He happened to have a clunker in the 5OT Notre Dame game that everybody watched, which meant that the rest of the season he got the blame whenever Louisville didn't play well. A lot of people in the media spent a lot of time playing amateur psychiatrist with him, while the net total of his season blew away what every other player in the nation accomplished. For example, Russ Smith managed to have a better eFG% than Marcus Smart, despite playing a much larger role in his team's offense, yet Smart was given credit for OSU's turnaround and was never accused of shooting him team out of game. Meanwhile, Russ was probably the best defensive player on the best defense in the nation. Not only were they the best defense in the nation, but the Pomeroy ratings had them as the best defense since that 2008-09 Memphis team with Tyreke Evans, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggert.

Anyway, as I said, Smith is likely gone, as is Gorgui Dieng. Peyton Siva graduates. Obviously there's a hope that Kevin Ware will be able to return from his gruesome injury, but I don't know how they can count on anything from him until we see how his leg heals. That leaves Wayne Blackshear as the only proven backcourt returner. Mike Marra is an option, but he's missed almost the entire last two seasons with injuries, so it's probably asking a lot for him to be productive next season. That will put a lot of pressure on Terry Rozier (Scout: 3 PG) and Anton Gill (Scout: 11 SG, Rivals: 50) to provide significant backcourt productivity. The front court should be okay without Dieng, I think. They don't have anybody who can provide a paint presence defensively like he can, but Chane Behanan, Stephan Van Treese and Montrezl Harrell are all pretty big players, and that doesn't even include Luke Hancock. But Rick Pitino teams depend on that aggressive perimeter defense and quick, athletic perimeter offensive players. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith were as good as Pitino ever had in those roles, and that's why he ended up with his best team at Louisville (and arguably his best team ever... other than maybe that 1996 Kentucky team). If Kevin Ware can't come back and be effective, it's hard to see how Louisville doesn't take a significant step backwards.

Memphis is a hot pick for next season. They were overrated and over-seeded this past season (they went 9-1 in games decided by seven points or less on in overtime), but the only senior in their regular rotation was DJ Stephens. That said, Adonis Thomas is off to the NBA while Tarik Black and Antonio Barton are leaving via transfer. Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford will still give Memphis a really nice starting backcourt with Geron Johnson a pretty nice third guard. But other than that, the only proven returner is big man Shaq Goodwin. Josh Pastner does still have 6'6" Damien Wilson from his 2012 recruiting class, as well as a stacked 2013 recruiting class, led by Austin Nichols (Scout: 11 PF, Rivals: 17), Kuran Iverson (Scout: 13 PF, Rivals: 28) and Nick King (Scout: 8 SF, Rivals: 46). Memphis is the perfect storm of a team likely to fall short of expectations next season. They were lucky in close games this past season and are hit really hard by transfer defections, which are often not noticed by preseason pollsters and prognosticators. Memphis will likely start the season in the middle of the Top 25, but in my opinion they're barely a Tournament team.

The Cincinnati Bearcats were really tough defensively, but their offense was inconsistent (to say the least). They do get star scorer Sean Kilpatrick back, though he wasn't the explosive scorer late in the season that he occasionally has been in the past. Cashmere Wright, JaQuon Parker and Cheikh Mbodj are all graduating, which means that scoring will be a real concern whenever Kilpatrick isn't going off for 30+. Their top returners aside from Kilpatrick are probably 6'7" Titus Robles and 6'8" Justin Jackson, with 6'7" Shaquille Thomas being their best young prospect. Mick Cronin's 2013 recruiting class has one blue chipper: Jermaine Lawrence (Scout: 7 PF, Rivals: 26).

The final NCAA Tournament team from the programs making up this conference next season is Temple. It was nice to see Fran Dunphy break through with a big NCAA Tournament win. He's a fantastic coach, and has been unfairly tarred as one of those coaches who "can't win in the NCAA Tournament". That said, they're heading into a rebuilding season. Star Khalif Wyatt is gone, as is Scootie Randall, Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson, Jake O'Brien and TJ Dileo.  Shooting guard Will Cummings and big man Anthony Lee are the only returners from their regular rotation. So how is Fran Dunphy going to repopulate his roster? With such an experienced roster, he barely touched his 2012 recruiting class. So 6'5" Quentin DeCosey, 6'6" Daniel Dingle and 6'10" Devontae Watson are all good prospects for next season. The highlight of Dunphy's 2013 recruiting class is Josh Brown (Scout: 26 PG, Rivals: 128). But it's going to be a major rebuilding season.

UConn was a very intriguing team this past season. Kevin Ollie did a really nice job holding his team together through the postseason sanctions. Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels are all considering the NBA Draft, but as far as I can tell they're all likely to return. Omar Calhoun is going to be a very good player, and he will return along with Niels Giffey. A question mark surrounds Enosch Wolf aand Tyler Olander, both of whom have had off-the-court problems which could lead to suspensions or worse. Their top recruit is Kentan Facey (Scout: 15 C, Rivals: 66). So right now, a full five members of their regular rotation are uncertain for next year (Napier, Boatright, Daniels, Wolf and Olander). But if all five return, the Huskies will be clearly improved and will almost certainly return to the NCAA Tournament.

The sleeper team in the AAC for next season is Houston. The Cougars really were not that bad of a team this past season. They went 7-9 in Conference USA and won 20 games, including a victory over Texas in the CBI. And they should expect to be a lot better next season. Their top four minute earners this past season were freshmen and sophomores, and their only graduation from their regular rotation came off the bench (Leon Gibson). They have two legitimately explosive scorers (TaShawn Thomas and Joseph Young), who should become a lot better known by casual college basketball fans next season. They also got a lot of nice production from star 2012 recruit Danuel House. The other blue chipper in that 2012 class, 6'9" Danrad Knowles, could not qualify academically, but hopes to rejoin the team next season. Another prospect to keep an eye on is 6'10" Valentine Izundu. Considering how bad Houston's interior defense was this past season, they could really use a big man shot blocker like Izundu.

In the end, here's how I see the inaugural AAC season playing out:

1. Louisville - The Cardinals are going to take a big step back next season, even if Kevin Ware comes back, but the AAC just isn't going to be that strong of a conference. Even if Louisville is only a borderline Top 25 team, they still will have a good shot to win this league.
2. UConn - This rating assumes that they don't lose any players to the NBA or to suspensions, but I think there's a good chance of that. They should be improved and they should get back to the NCAA Tournament.
3. Memphis - Like I said, this is going to be a team that disappoints. They had three key players who, fairly unexpectedly, left for the NBA or to transfer, and it's going to make them much more of a bubble team than an elite team.
4. Cincinnati - Their defense should still be pretty good, and Sean Kilpatrick will win two or three games by himself, but I don't think they'll be as strong next season as they were this past season.
5. Houston - Like I said, this is my sleeper team. They have the talent to make a run at an at-large bid.
6. SMU - It was a long first season for Larry Brown at SMU. He does have some transfers ready to go for year #2, though: Nic Moore (Illinois St), Markus Kennedy (Villanova) and Crandall Head (Illinois). They'll definitely be improved next season, but it remains to be seen just how motivated Larry Brown is going to continue to be playing teams like Central Florida and Rutgers. How long until things get turned over to Tim Jankovich?
7. Temple - It's going to be a total rebuilding season for Fran Dunphy. I can't drop them lower than this, though. Dunphy is such an underrated coach.
8. Central Florida - Like UConn, UCF was forbidden from postseason play this past season. Unlike UConn, Donnie Jones hasn't been able to bring in and hang on to the talent required to build an NCAA Tournament team.
9. South Florida - I'm not sure why USF should be significantly better next season than they were this past season. At least Stan Heath has a nice, deep 2013 recruiting class.
10. Rutgers - Look, we all know Rutgers is going to be a disaster next season. And probably the season after that. But what's startling to me is that it's widely reported that Rutgers refuses to pay more than $800,000 per year for their next head coach. Their athletic department is in a financial mess right now, and when they move to the Big Ten their basketball program is even going to get swamped financially by programs like Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see how they have any hope of competing in the Big Ten in basketball anytime soon.