The America East is changing up its membership for the first time in a decade. Boston University leaves while UMass-Lowell makes the transition in from Division II. The rivalry between Boston University and Vermont has been fun, but for the short term I think the America East should be fine. Vermont has been the premier program in the conference for a while now. They have won a regular season and/or tournament title in 9 of the past 12 seasons. They came up just short in the America East title game this season, but appear to still be in good hands with John Becker. Albany has represented the America East in three of the past eight NCAA Tournaments, including this past season. And I haven't talked yet about the best team the past season - Stony Brook.
Stony Brook was clearly the best team in the America East this past season no matter how you look at things. They led in the computers, of course, and in the standings. They also outscored opponents by 0.23 PPP in conference play (Vermont was second best at +0.13 PPP). They had both the best offensive and defensive efficiencies in conference play. So they dominated. But while their defense was the foundation of their success this past season, the foundation for their success going forward is Jameel Warney. The star recruit was a man among boys as a true freshman. He led his team in points (12.4 per game), blocks (1.5) and FG% (61.8%). He was raw physically, but skill and savvy will come with time. Stony Brook does lose star Tommy Brenton and sixth man Marcus Rouse to graduation. Brenton did everything for Stony Brook. He was the primary ball handler (4.8 apg) but also was the team's leading rebounder (8.4).
Next year, offensive creation will presumably be split between Anthony Jackson and rising-sophomore Carson Puriefoy (3.1 assists per 40 minutes). Warney will give Stony Brook a continued rebounding presence, and will also continue locking down the paint defensively (Eric McAlister should continue playing a larger defensive role as well). The loss of Marcus Rouse is the loss of their best spot-up three-point shooter (41.0%). One option to supplement their existing shooters is 6'9" Scott King, who hit 39% behind the arc in limited time as a freshman. Stony Brook will definitely miss Brenton and Rouse defensively as well, but as long as Warney continues a reasonable progression, I don't think there's any reason to believe that they won't be a contender for the title again next season.
Albany only went 9-7 in regular season play in the America East, but they definitely earned their way to the NCAA Tournament. Sure, they were lucky (their three wins were by a combined 7 points), but they had to take out both Stony Brook and Vermont. They do lose three of their six top minute earners to graduation, however, including primary playmaker Mike Black (14.8 ppg, 2.4 apg, 37.8 3P%). His backcourt mate, Jacob Iati (12.2 ppg, 41.6 3P%), and 6'9" Blake Metcalf (3.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) also graduate. Next year, the play making role should turn to the inside-outside combo of Peter Hooley (8.0 ppg and 3.1 apg as a freshman) and Sam Rowley (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg). John Puk, who split time basically 50/50 at center with Blake Metcalf, is going to be expected to eat most of Metcalf's minutes. One of the concerns for Albany is going to be replenishing depth and talent, though. Last year's squad was supplemented mostly by Juco transfers, so Hooley and Rowley were the only freshmen or sophomores among the team's top 11 minute earners. The one high schooler signed so far for 2013 is 6'6" Dallas Ennema.
While Albany won the America East tournament, the second best team in the America East over the course of the season was Vermont. The Catamounts came on strong late in the season with a powerful front line that led the conference in OR%. The entire front line will be back, led by Clancy Rugg (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Brian Voelkel (8.6 rpg) and rising-sophomore Ethan O'Day (6.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg). They'll also get a boost next season when 6'7" Hector Harold, a transfer from Pepperdine, becomes eligible. The problem for Vermont is ball handling, which really bit them down the stretch of the season. They commited turnovers on 19.6% of possessions in conference play, and on at least 24% of their possessions in each of their final four losses of the season. Part of the problem, I think, is that they didn't really have a point guard. 6'6" Brian Voelkel was the team's primary playmaker. Their top 2013 recruit, Kiefer Douse, is a point guard, but he's not that much of a big time recruit, so I wouldn't expect him to turn things around himself. Vermont is simply going to have to, with a year of experience, do a better job handling the ball. They only lose one player from the regular rotation, Trey Blue (8.6 ppg), so the team will be more experienced next season.
The fourth best team in the America East this past season was Hartford. They won six of their final eight regular season games before being stunned by UMBC in the America East tournament. They did play well enough to get a spot in the CIT, though, where they lost a tight game to Rider. And with freshmen and sophomores making up seven of their top eight minute earners, they're going to be even better next season. Their do-everything player is rising-junior Mark Nwakamma, who took 33.4% of his team's shots when on the floor, while also averaging 1.8 assists per game (Yolonzo Moore led them with 2.6 per game). What's holding them up, though, is offensive efficiency. Moore only had a 49.7 eFG%, which sounds bad until you realize that only two of his teammates were over 50%, and one of them is graduating John Peterson. That's going to have to get cleaned up if they're going to have a shot to topple Stony Brook or Vermont.
It's not unreasonable to think that Albany and Hartford can get into the mix atop of the league next season, but Vermont and Stony Brook are the most talented and most well-rounded teams. Just getting to watch Jameel Warney play a few times, I wanted to pick them as my America East favorite for next year, but there are some real concerns. Losing their starting backcourt is a serious problem, particularly with the perimeter defense that they provided. Vermont has been in good coaching hands for a long time now, even as they've transitioned through several coaching changes. I think Vermont is the safest pick here.
#DunkCity. Unless you are a Georgetown or San Diego State fan, you very much enjoyed Florida Gulf Coast's NCAA Tournament run. They're a fun team to watch because they play so care-free. They take a lot of risks and chances. And in a sense, that's the right strategy for a team like them. They were obviously very much outclassed by Georgetown and San Diego State - if they played a game straight and cautious over a best-of-7 series they'd have no chance. But that kind of carelessness is also why they were well outside the Top 200 in the nation in offensive turnover rate and DR%. It's why they got swept by Lipscomb and also fell to East Tennessee State. It's a mixed blessing. And it's why even though the entire roster will stay together, next year would still be a gamble. But the entire roster will not be together next year.
While I'll get to roster changes in a moment, it's worth noting that Andy Enfield is off to be the new USC coach. His stock is never going to be higher, so the only real question was which job he was going to take. Will he take some players with him if he goes? Maybe. For the time being, what about the FGCU roster? If nobody else leaves, they should be in pretty good shape. They lose one starter (Sherwood Brown - 15.5 ppg, 54.9 eFG%, 6.5 rpg) and sixth man Eddie Murray (3.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg). Everybody else will nominally be back, led by Brett Comer (8.0 ppg, 6.6 apg), Bernard Thompson (14.3 ppg, 53.4 eFG%, 4.4 rpg, 2.8 spg) and Chase Fieler (12.1 ppg, 62.0 eFG%, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg). Freshman point guard DeJuan Graf had a rough year, but he is a talent who could turn into something down the road. They also add 6'10" Nate Hicks, who played light minutes in two seasons at Georgia Tech. If this roster somehow stays together, the team could actually be better next season.
Mercer was the team that I expected to take over the Atlantic Sun after the departure of Belmont. And they were, probably, the best Atlantic Sun team over the course of the season. They had the best efficiency margin in conference play (+0.13 PPP vs +0.11 PPP for Florida Gulf Coast). They won 9 of their final 10 regular season games, with the one loss being a tough 3 point loss on the road at Florida Gulf Coast. But they were stunned by Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun title game, sending them off to the NIT, where they beat Tennessee and then fell to BYU. Mercer had nine players who earned at least 10 minutes per game this past season, all but one of whom will be back. The loss is Travis Smith (13.9 ppg, 43.3 3P%). But Mercer's strength this past season was defense, particularly in the interior, and all of those players will be back. 6'10" Daniel Coursey (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg) has one year of eligibility left, and he will get help off the bench from 6'9" TJ Hallice and 6'11" Monty Brown. You'd think with all that size and their defensive prowess that backcourt play would be a weakness, but Mercer's backcourt is actually in good hands with Langston Hall (11.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.0 apg). The bigger issue offensively is on the glass, where they were only 8th in the Atlantic Sun in OR%. They have the talent to be much better, and I think they will be improved next season.
Stetson was the only other team to finish above .500 in Atlantic Sun play. They finished the season strong, winning 4 of 5 to finish the regular season, powered by some strong outside shooting. The problem is, they weren't particularly good outside of that hot shooting. What they need desperately more than anything is point guard play, particularly with starting point guard Joel Naburgs (10.1 ppg, 3.9 apg) graduating. The job will presumably fall to rising-junior Hunter Miller, with 2013 recruit Asa Duvall a possibility as well. Mercer also loses a lot of size to graduation, led by Adam Pegg (15.7 ppg, 56.7 eFG%, 6.3 rpg) and Liam McInerney (2.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg). I don't see an obvious reason why Stetson should be improved next season, and they were a bit lucky to end up where they did, so in my opinion it's a bit unlikely that they'll make a run at the Atlantic Sun title next season.
The third placed team in efficiency margin in conference play, and also Pomeroy and Sagarin, was actually USC Upstate. They were a tough 0-4 in games decided by five points or less in conference play, and should be improved next season with their top eight minute earners returning. Their strength is in the paint, led by Torrey Craig (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Ricardo Glenn (10.5 ppg, 58.8 FG%, 8.1 rpg, 2.1 apg). On the perimeter, Ty Greene (12.6 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg) is the team's primary playmaker. While Ty Greene will only be a junior next season, USC Upstate will look to start at least three seniors, and might be the most experienced team in the conference. Their biggest need to take the next step is to improve their shooting. Not a single player on the roster shot better than 36% behind the arc, and as a team they hit only 64.6% of their free throws. If those two numbers improve by a significant amount, I'll like their chances to take the Atlantic Sun next season.
I don't think there's really much of a sleeper candidate in the Atlantic Sun. If I'm forced to pick one, I guess I'll go with Jacksonville. They struggled down the stretch, losing 6 of their final 8 regular season games, though every single game was by 7 points or less, so it probably had more to do with bad luck than anything else. They also have a nice core, with two freshmen in the starting lineup, led by Jarvis Haywood (11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg). They do lose two senior starters - Glenn Powell (9.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Russell Powell (5.8 ppg, 4.2 apg). The point guard duty will presumably fall to Evin Graham (3.1 points and 2.0 assists in 16.8 mpg), while the loss of size is a bigger issue. 6'9" 2012 recruit Tyler Alderman will need to play significantly better to be able to earn significant minutes next season.
Florida Gulf Coast will be in contention for the Atlantic Sun title if they can keep their entire roster in place. But there are often roster losses during coaching transitions. So with Andy Enfield gone, I think the Atlantic Sun will be a two team race next season, between Mercer and USC Upstate. Mercer is certainly the safer team, having been in contention for the Atlantic Sun title for a few years now. They have to fill some gaps, particularly on the offensive end, but should continue to be very strong defensively. USC Upstate is an intriguing pick because they'll be seen by most of the media as coming out of nowhere. They should definitely be improved next season, and could win the title. But for now I have to give the edge to Mercer. They're simply a safer pick.
While I'll get to roster changes in a moment, it's worth noting that Andy Enfield is off to be the new USC coach. His stock is never going to be higher, so the only real question was which job he was going to take. Will he take some players with him if he goes? Maybe. For the time being, what about the FGCU roster? If nobody else leaves, they should be in pretty good shape. They lose one starter (Sherwood Brown - 15.5 ppg, 54.9 eFG%, 6.5 rpg) and sixth man Eddie Murray (3.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg). Everybody else will nominally be back, led by Brett Comer (8.0 ppg, 6.6 apg), Bernard Thompson (14.3 ppg, 53.4 eFG%, 4.4 rpg, 2.8 spg) and Chase Fieler (12.1 ppg, 62.0 eFG%, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg). Freshman point guard DeJuan Graf had a rough year, but he is a talent who could turn into something down the road. They also add 6'10" Nate Hicks, who played light minutes in two seasons at Georgia Tech. If this roster somehow stays together, the team could actually be better next season.
Mercer was the team that I expected to take over the Atlantic Sun after the departure of Belmont. And they were, probably, the best Atlantic Sun team over the course of the season. They had the best efficiency margin in conference play (+0.13 PPP vs +0.11 PPP for Florida Gulf Coast). They won 9 of their final 10 regular season games, with the one loss being a tough 3 point loss on the road at Florida Gulf Coast. But they were stunned by Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun title game, sending them off to the NIT, where they beat Tennessee and then fell to BYU. Mercer had nine players who earned at least 10 minutes per game this past season, all but one of whom will be back. The loss is Travis Smith (13.9 ppg, 43.3 3P%). But Mercer's strength this past season was defense, particularly in the interior, and all of those players will be back. 6'10" Daniel Coursey (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg) has one year of eligibility left, and he will get help off the bench from 6'9" TJ Hallice and 6'11" Monty Brown. You'd think with all that size and their defensive prowess that backcourt play would be a weakness, but Mercer's backcourt is actually in good hands with Langston Hall (11.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 5.0 apg). The bigger issue offensively is on the glass, where they were only 8th in the Atlantic Sun in OR%. They have the talent to be much better, and I think they will be improved next season.
Stetson was the only other team to finish above .500 in Atlantic Sun play. They finished the season strong, winning 4 of 5 to finish the regular season, powered by some strong outside shooting. The problem is, they weren't particularly good outside of that hot shooting. What they need desperately more than anything is point guard play, particularly with starting point guard Joel Naburgs (10.1 ppg, 3.9 apg) graduating. The job will presumably fall to rising-junior Hunter Miller, with 2013 recruit Asa Duvall a possibility as well. Mercer also loses a lot of size to graduation, led by Adam Pegg (15.7 ppg, 56.7 eFG%, 6.3 rpg) and Liam McInerney (2.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg). I don't see an obvious reason why Stetson should be improved next season, and they were a bit lucky to end up where they did, so in my opinion it's a bit unlikely that they'll make a run at the Atlantic Sun title next season.
The third placed team in efficiency margin in conference play, and also Pomeroy and Sagarin, was actually USC Upstate. They were a tough 0-4 in games decided by five points or less in conference play, and should be improved next season with their top eight minute earners returning. Their strength is in the paint, led by Torrey Craig (17.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Ricardo Glenn (10.5 ppg, 58.8 FG%, 8.1 rpg, 2.1 apg). On the perimeter, Ty Greene (12.6 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg) is the team's primary playmaker. While Ty Greene will only be a junior next season, USC Upstate will look to start at least three seniors, and might be the most experienced team in the conference. Their biggest need to take the next step is to improve their shooting. Not a single player on the roster shot better than 36% behind the arc, and as a team they hit only 64.6% of their free throws. If those two numbers improve by a significant amount, I'll like their chances to take the Atlantic Sun next season.
I don't think there's really much of a sleeper candidate in the Atlantic Sun. If I'm forced to pick one, I guess I'll go with Jacksonville. They struggled down the stretch, losing 6 of their final 8 regular season games, though every single game was by 7 points or less, so it probably had more to do with bad luck than anything else. They also have a nice core, with two freshmen in the starting lineup, led by Jarvis Haywood (11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg). They do lose two senior starters - Glenn Powell (9.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Russell Powell (5.8 ppg, 4.2 apg). The point guard duty will presumably fall to Evin Graham (3.1 points and 2.0 assists in 16.8 mpg), while the loss of size is a bigger issue. 6'9" 2012 recruit Tyler Alderman will need to play significantly better to be able to earn significant minutes next season.
Florida Gulf Coast will be in contention for the Atlantic Sun title if they can keep their entire roster in place. But there are often roster losses during coaching transitions. So with Andy Enfield gone, I think the Atlantic Sun will be a two team race next season, between Mercer and USC Upstate. Mercer is certainly the safer team, having been in contention for the Atlantic Sun title for a few years now. They have to fill some gaps, particularly on the offensive end, but should continue to be very strong defensively. USC Upstate is an intriguing pick because they'll be seen by most of the media as coming out of nowhere. They should definitely be improved next season, and could win the title. But for now I have to give the edge to Mercer. They're simply a safer pick.
All things considered, it was a strong season for the Big Sky Conference. Weber State impressed in particular. They lost three key players from their 2011-12 team, including superstar Damian Lillard, but actually got significantly better. Despite finishing a game behind Montana in the standings, they easily led the conference in efficiency margin and in the computers. Unfortunately for them, Montana got home court advantage for the Big Sky tournament, and they managed to escape with a three point win in the Big Sky title game. Weber State ended up in the CIT, where they made it all the way to the title game before falling to East Carolina. Montana struggled with injuries late in the season, and then got stuck drawing Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament, so they went one-and-done, but this was still a successful season for them. The rest of the conference was pretty far back, of course. North Dakota was the only other team to go to a postseason tournament - they went to the CIT and fell to Northern Iowa in the first round.
To expand on what I said about Montana earlier, they were clearly undone a bit by injuries late in the season. Will Cherry (13.3 ppg, 43 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.9 spg) missed significant time late in the season, though he did come back for the Big Sky tournament and the NCAA Tournament. They were not as lucky with Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 3.9 rpg), who was lost to a season-ending injury in mid-February. Those are also the two graduations that Montana will need to deal with. They return Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 5.9 rpg, 4.0 apg), who shared perimeter playmaking duties with Will Cherry. They also have a couple of nice outside shooters in Jordan Gregory (8.2 ppg, 41.8 3P%, 3.2 rpg) and Mike Weisner (6.0 ppg, 46.5 3P%, 2.5 rpg). A prospect to look for going forward is 7-footer Andy Martin, who played sparingly as a true freshman but has a lot of talent. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'0" point guard Mario Dunn.
Weber State was powered by awfully good outside shooting - they finished in the top ten in the nation in both 2P% and 3P%, and were fourth in the nation in eFG%. They had three regulars who hit better than 40% behind the arc, two of whom will be back. The one that they lose is Scott Bamforth (14.0 ppg, 45.6 3P%, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg). Jordan Richardson and Davion Barry are the other two sharpshooters, with Barry (15.2 ppg, 41.4 3P%, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg) doubling as the team's primary playmaker. The other graduation from their regular rotation is Frank Otis (8.9 ppg, 63.0 FG%, 6.0 rpg), but they have a really nice up-and-coming big in rising-sophomore Joel Bolomboy (7.0 ppg, 57.8 FG%, 7.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg).
With a huge gap between Montana/Weber State and the rest of the league, and with neither of those two teams likely to take a large step back, is there any chance of some other team challenging for the Big Sky title? The team with the best argument, in my opinion, is Northern Colorado. The Bears finished fifth in the standings this past season, but were third in efficiency margin, and were playing their best basketball at the end of the season. They also return every player from their entire roster next season, including several good outside shooters, as well as some good rebounders. Tate Unruh and Paul Garnica both shot over 40% behind the arc. Unruh (13.5 ppg, 42.8 3P%, 4.3 rpg) and Derrick Barden (13.5 ppg, 57.2 eFG%, 8.8 rpg) were the team's two leading scorers. Probably their biggest need is quality ball handling. Tevin Svihovec (11.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 turnovers per game) needs to be more efficient. Their top 2013 recruit is a point guard: Jordan Wilson. So perhaps that will lead to an improvement on their turnover rate, A/TO ratio and FTRate, none of which were better than 7th in the Big Sky.
While I like the upward trajectory of Northern Colorado, and they are a team that could potentially get close to the Top 100 next season, it seems awfully likely that we're heading toward yet another Montana vs Weber State duel for the Big Sky title. I don't think the loss of Will Cherry is as big as Montana fans think it is. He wasn't really better than Kareem Jamar, who will fill in for much of his production. At the same time, Weber State was the better team this past season, and they lose less to graduation. They are going to remain good at the same things they were good at this past season. They're still going to put up a ton of offense with hot outside shooting, and have some good young playmakers in their front court. So in my opinion, Weber State has the narrow edge for next season.
To expand on what I said about Montana earlier, they were clearly undone a bit by injuries late in the season. Will Cherry (13.3 ppg, 43 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.9 spg) missed significant time late in the season, though he did come back for the Big Sky tournament and the NCAA Tournament. They were not as lucky with Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 3.9 rpg), who was lost to a season-ending injury in mid-February. Those are also the two graduations that Montana will need to deal with. They return Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg, 55.3 eFG%, 5.9 rpg, 4.0 apg), who shared perimeter playmaking duties with Will Cherry. They also have a couple of nice outside shooters in Jordan Gregory (8.2 ppg, 41.8 3P%, 3.2 rpg) and Mike Weisner (6.0 ppg, 46.5 3P%, 2.5 rpg). A prospect to look for going forward is 7-footer Andy Martin, who played sparingly as a true freshman but has a lot of talent. Their top 2013 recruit is 6'0" point guard Mario Dunn.
Weber State was powered by awfully good outside shooting - they finished in the top ten in the nation in both 2P% and 3P%, and were fourth in the nation in eFG%. They had three regulars who hit better than 40% behind the arc, two of whom will be back. The one that they lose is Scott Bamforth (14.0 ppg, 45.6 3P%, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg). Jordan Richardson and Davion Barry are the other two sharpshooters, with Barry (15.2 ppg, 41.4 3P%, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg) doubling as the team's primary playmaker. The other graduation from their regular rotation is Frank Otis (8.9 ppg, 63.0 FG%, 6.0 rpg), but they have a really nice up-and-coming big in rising-sophomore Joel Bolomboy (7.0 ppg, 57.8 FG%, 7.1 rpg, 1.7 bpg).
With a huge gap between Montana/Weber State and the rest of the league, and with neither of those two teams likely to take a large step back, is there any chance of some other team challenging for the Big Sky title? The team with the best argument, in my opinion, is Northern Colorado. The Bears finished fifth in the standings this past season, but were third in efficiency margin, and were playing their best basketball at the end of the season. They also return every player from their entire roster next season, including several good outside shooters, as well as some good rebounders. Tate Unruh and Paul Garnica both shot over 40% behind the arc. Unruh (13.5 ppg, 42.8 3P%, 4.3 rpg) and Derrick Barden (13.5 ppg, 57.2 eFG%, 8.8 rpg) were the team's two leading scorers. Probably their biggest need is quality ball handling. Tevin Svihovec (11.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.8 turnovers per game) needs to be more efficient. Their top 2013 recruit is a point guard: Jordan Wilson. So perhaps that will lead to an improvement on their turnover rate, A/TO ratio and FTRate, none of which were better than 7th in the Big Sky.
While I like the upward trajectory of Northern Colorado, and they are a team that could potentially get close to the Top 100 next season, it seems awfully likely that we're heading toward yet another Montana vs Weber State duel for the Big Sky title. I don't think the loss of Will Cherry is as big as Montana fans think it is. He wasn't really better than Kareem Jamar, who will fill in for much of his production. At the same time, Weber State was the better team this past season, and they lose less to graduation. They are going to remain good at the same things they were good at this past season. They're still going to put up a ton of offense with hot outside shooting, and have some good young playmakers in their front court. So in my opinion, Weber State has the narrow edge for next season.
This was not a strong season for the Big South Conference, to say the least. The entire conference combined for three RPI Top 100 wins, highlighted by Coastal Carolina's victory over Akron. The postseason was a total wipe out. Liberty stole the Big South tournament title, which sent them to a 16/16 play-in game that they lost. As regular season champion, Charleston Southern got an automatic bid to the NIT, where they lost their opening game. Gardner Webb and High Point earned bids to the CIT, where each of them lost their opening games as well. So, a total postseason wipe-out.
With so many teams packed so close this past season, it's reasonable to expect something similar next year, so I'm going to have to go through quite a few teams here. Let's start with Liberty, since they were the Big South's NCAA Tournament representative. Despite not being a particularly good team this past season, there's good reason to think they should be better next season. They lose only one senior from their entire roster - Tavares Speaks (13.2 ppg, 38.2 3P%, 3.4 rpg). At the same time, they get back Antwan Burrus, who was their best big man in 2011-12 but missed this past season with a medical redshirt. They get one more season of backcourt mates Davon Marshall (13.6 ppg, 43.1 3P%, 2.8 apg) and John Caleb Sanders (14.4 ppg, 3.6 apg). They also will look to a spark from point guard Larry Taylor, who was their top 2012 recruit but who barely played as a true freshman. They finished 10th in a 12 team league in assist ratio, so could use another offensive ball handler and creator. Their biggest concern last season was defense, with rebounding a secondary problem. Getting Burrus back should help with rebounding, but defense has to be a team-wide improvement. Weird things can happen in conference tournaments, but Liberty's defense will have to get significantly better for them to win a regular season title next year.
Charleston Southern was the top team in the Big South this past season, and suffered a tough loss to Liberty in the title game. They were not great at any one aspect of the game, but were solid across the board. They were 2nd in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play. The one area that they led the conference was in three-point shooting, and they do lose their three-point specialist (Mathiang Muo - 41.2%) as one of two senior starters. But they have a nice core of young scorers that will continue to lead the team into the future. 5'8" Saah Nimley (15.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 5.0 apg) is the team's primary playmaker. He was only a sophomore this past season, as were Arlon Harper (15.3 ppg, 38.7 3P%, 4.4 rpg, 2.0 spg) and Paul Gombwer (5.5 ppg and 6.3 rpg). Those three rising-juniors will form the core of next year's team. Losing two starters is always tough, but there's no reason to expect a big drop-off from Charleston Southern. Assuming that no other team makes a big leap next year, the Buccaneers should remain in contention for a title.
High Point finished with a share of the regular season title. They came on strong late in the season, winning 8 of their final 9 conference games before being stunned by 1 point by Liberty in the Big South tournament. And part of the reason that they fell to Liberty was because they lost star freshman John Brown to a broken right foot during their second-to-last regular season game. In fact, they had won 7 straight conference games before he left that game with an injury. But that injury turned their season around, in a bad way. Radford came back from 7 points down with under 5 minutes left to steal that game. High Point then stumbled to a 1 point home victory over mediocre Campbell, then fell to Liberty in the Big South tournament and then fell by 9 to UC Irvine in the first round of the CIT. Assuming Brown comes back at full strength for the start of next season, however, he's a contender to be the best player in the conference. High Point actually had two other very productive freshmen last season - Adam Weary (10.2 ppg, 2.3 apg, 1.4 spg) and Lorenzo Cugini (4.1 ppg and 2.6 rpg in only 14.0 mpg). That said, they lose Allan Chaney (14.5 ppg, 80.3 FT%, 8.0 rpg) as well as Corey Law and Jairus Simms off the bench. To have success next season, they're going to have to find some new front line players. The best returning rebounder aside from John Brown is 6'6", 220 pound Lorenzo Cugini. I can't find any signed players for next season, but I have to imagine that will be an offseason priority.
According to the computers, the second best team in the Big South this past season was not High Point but Gardner Webb. Gardner Webb did win 10 of their final 11 regular season games, including an impressive road victory over the College of Charleston as part of Bracketbusters. They lose only two seniors, but both were among the team's top three scorers, and one was the team's leading rebounder. Those seniors would be Tashan Newsome (14.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Kevin Hartley (9.6 ppg, 46.8 3P%, 6.4 rpg, 1.7 apg). The loss of the outside shooting is a concern, but they should be able to replace much of Newsome's production with more production from 5'9" Tyler Strange, and they have two more years of star Donta Harper (12.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.0 bpg). Gardner Webb also adds 6'5" Naji Hibbert (20 minutes per game in his final two seasons at Texas A&M) and have a nice prospect in Isaiah Ivey (1.6 points in 7.7 minutes per game), who was their top 2012 recruit. More importantly, Gardner Webb's success was on the defensive end of the floor more than the offensive end, and that improved throughout the season (7 of their final 8 opponents were held below 1 PPP).
UNC-Asheville is a team that could contend next year because they only lose one of their top five minute earners. That said, their one loss is star Jeremy Atkinson (17.8 ppg, 51.6 eFG%, 7.1 rpg, 2.5 apg), so a lot of pressure will fall onto the development of young players like Keith Hornsby and Will Weeks, who will need to shoulder more of the load. Radford is another sleeper, because they were awfully young this past season. Their top five minute earners were all freshmen or sophomores, led by star Javonte Green (14.6 ppg, 51.1 eFG%, 8.1 rpg, 2.1 spg).
The most likely result for next season is a wide open Big South Conference. The conference was really tight from top to bottom, and no top team is going to make a big leap. Charleston Southern, High Point and Gardner Webb were the three best teams this past season, and all should be in pretty good shape next season. While Charleston Southern was the steadiest team on both sides of the floor, I really like the upside of High Point. They improved dramatically throughout this past season, and have a really nice young core to build around. So in my opinion, the early favorite for next season is High Point.
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